What's wrong with the BCS? Look no further than the two polls that account for two-thirds of the BCS Standings.
This week's Simulated BCS Standings are just about as good as the real thing, with nearly 90 percent of the data for the actual standings available - both the Coaches and Harris polls and four of the six computers.
But the near-fatal flaw of the BCS Standings becomes immediately evident as soon as the Harris Poll is released. With another year potentially to be dominated by parity - only 17 teams remain unbeaten after four weeks - the standings will have the final say on who gets to play in the BCS national championship game. And yet again, the standings will be heavily influenced by two highly biased and unreliable polls.
Let's count the ways:
1. The Harris Poll doesn't come out until the fourth week of the season, ostensibly to free the voters from preseason prejudices. Guess what? It's just not happening. The top 10 of the Harris Poll has the exact same 10 teams from the AP Poll, and in the exact order, except for Nos. 8-9 Ohio State and Oklahoma traded places.
2. If the Harris Poll was to be free of preseason biases, how would you explain the fact that Oregon is ranked No. 23 and Cal at No. 21? The Ducks just destroyed the Bears by 39 points. The two teams have identical records at 3-1. And Oregon played a considerably tougher schedule than the Bears did, with games against three ranked opponents. If the Harris voters indeed voted on the basis of pure performance, there is no way that Cal should be ranked ahead of Oregon. ... The same goes for Penn State being two spots ahead of Iowa.
3. The credibility of the Harris Poll is again highly questionable, with voters putting teams like Iowa State, Kansas State, Washington and Texas Tech in the top 25.
4. The Coaches Poll has the same sort of problems, as usual. And since both polls do not release the individual ballots to the public until the final vote, there is little or no transparency in the process.
As long as these two polls get to dominate the BCS Standings, the BCS will always lack a certain amount of legitimacy. With so much money and prestige on the line in the biggest intercollegiate sport, it's in many ways mind-boggling that a system can continue to thrive with so little checks and balances to ensure fairness.
Then again, big-time college sports isn't really about fairness, is it?
Monday, September 28, 2009
Sunday, September 27, 2009
The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 4)
The Guru's BlogPoll ballot this week, with notes below:
 | ||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | |
| 2 | Texas | |
| 3 | Alabama | |
| 4 | Boise State |  1 |
| 5 | LSU | 1 |
| 6 | USC | 3 |
| 7 | Virginia Tech | 5 |
| 8 | Oregon | 15 |
| 9 | Ohio State | 1 |
| 10 | Brigham Young | 4 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 4 |
| 12 | Iowa | |
| 13 | Houston | 3 |
| 14 | Cincinnati | 4 |
| 15 | South Florida | |
| 16 | UCLA | 1 |
| 17 | Miami (Florida) |  13 |
| 18 | TCU | 4 |
| 19 | Michigan | |
| 20 | Auburn | |
| 21 | Missouri | |
| 22 | Kansas | |
| 23 | Georgia Tech | |
| 24 | Penn State | 16 |
| 25 | Oklahoma State | 1 |
| Last week's ballot | ||
Dropped Out: California (#7), Mississippi (#11), Florida State (#13), Georgia (#25).
The bloody massacre of top-ranked teams began on Saturday, as Ole Miss laid an egg against South Carolina. But that was nothing compared to Cal's utter implosion against Oregon. By Saturday night, Miami, Florida State and Penn State also joined victims list. LSU barely scraped by thanks to Mississippi State's questionable playcalling at the goal line with a minute left in the game.
* There is no way to describe what a debacle the Golden Bears perpetrated at Autzen Stadium. Yeah, it was a trap game, with Cal already thinking ahead to next week's showdown against the suddenly-vulnerable Trojans. But to get spanked to the tune of 42-3? No team that gets beat that badly this early in the season should be in the top 25. Cal is out.
* The same goes for Florida State, playing at home against a South Florida team without its veteran quarterback. The Bulls were very much looking forward to this game, which could signal its arrival among the Sunshine State powers. Even without Matt Groethe, they pulled it off. Winning even more impressively in Tallahassee, with backup B.J. Daniels, than Miami did. USF is now the second-ranked team in Florida.
* I already wrote a whole thing about Ole Miss. The Rebels don't deserve to be in the top 25. Not until they beat a couple of relevant teams.
* Penn State barely stayed in the top 25, and I'm not even sure this is the right thing to do. The Nittany Lions feasted on Temple, Akron and Syracuse ... and gets beat in the Big Ten opener, at home, by an above-average, but hardly spectacular Iowa team. It's evident that Ohio State is still the best team in the Big Ten, with, gulp, maybe Michigan a distant second?
* Four weeks into the season, only 17 D-IA teams are still unbeaten. Of those, 15 are on my ballot. Texas A&M and Wisconsin are not. They haven't played a schedule that's worthy to be in the top 25.
The bloody massacre of top-ranked teams began on Saturday, as Ole Miss laid an egg against South Carolina. But that was nothing compared to Cal's utter implosion against Oregon. By Saturday night, Miami, Florida State and Penn State also joined victims list. LSU barely scraped by thanks to Mississippi State's questionable playcalling at the goal line with a minute left in the game.
* There is no way to describe what a debacle the Golden Bears perpetrated at Autzen Stadium. Yeah, it was a trap game, with Cal already thinking ahead to next week's showdown against the suddenly-vulnerable Trojans. But to get spanked to the tune of 42-3? No team that gets beat that badly this early in the season should be in the top 25. Cal is out.
* The same goes for Florida State, playing at home against a South Florida team without its veteran quarterback. The Bulls were very much looking forward to this game, which could signal its arrival among the Sunshine State powers. Even without Matt Groethe, they pulled it off. Winning even more impressively in Tallahassee, with backup B.J. Daniels, than Miami did. USF is now the second-ranked team in Florida.
* I already wrote a whole thing about Ole Miss. The Rebels don't deserve to be in the top 25. Not until they beat a couple of relevant teams.
* Penn State barely stayed in the top 25, and I'm not even sure this is the right thing to do. The Nittany Lions feasted on Temple, Akron and Syracuse ... and gets beat in the Big Ten opener, at home, by an above-average, but hardly spectacular Iowa team. It's evident that Ohio State is still the best team in the Big Ten, with, gulp, maybe Michigan a distant second?
* Four weeks into the season, only 17 D-IA teams are still unbeaten. Of those, 15 are on my ballot. Texas A&M and Wisconsin are not. They haven't played a schedule that's worthy to be in the top 25.
Friday, September 25, 2009
SEC Is So Tough ... Just Like a Duck
Most certainly, I'm not the only one who suspected that Ole Miss was a fraud. Yeah, the Rebels did beat Florida and finished with a six-game win streak last year, but what have they done in 2009 to warrant the lofty ranking of No. 4 in the AP Poll and No. 5 in the Coaches Poll?
Well, nothing, really.
Ole Miss was manhandled by Stever Spurrier's very mortal South Carolina team last night, scoring just one touchdown on a long pass play in a 16-10 loss. The score would've been more lopsided, in the Gamecocks' favor, had it not been Carolina's insistence on shooting itself in the foot repeatedly.
The Ole Miss defeat, without a doubt, brought back the oldest canard (or is it a Peking Duck?) in college sports back on the table: The SEC Is the Toughest Conference in Football. I've gone around this several times and really don't want to waste another second on this dubious subject. And delightfully, the Wall Street Journal (of all papers) came to the rescue.
Do you know what's really the toughest conference in college football in the last 10 years? Yep, it's the Pac-1+9. Check it out:
________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________Courtesy: The Wall Street Journal
The Pac-10's edge is so complete, that even if you discard USC's absurd 19-3 record, it is still above .500 against other BCS conferences. The Pac-10 owns a winning record against every other conference during this period, which roughly coincided with the existence of the BCS.
But perception has become so much reality partly because the Pac-10 has consistently failed to toot its own horn. Let's put it this way: The Pac-10 is a mom-and-pop shop run out of a little bank building in Walnut Creek (in Bay Area parlance, there's no there there there). The Big Ten, bottom dwellers on the list, is run like the Roman Empire out of Chicago, replete with its own TV network, media office, the works.
Not to mention the SEC, which has transformed itself during the BCS era from a backwater regional league to a national brand, much the same way NASCAR has marketed itself. With ESPN and CBS leading the way, the SEC has successfully staked the competitive high ground, roasting the "SEC IS THE TOUGHEST CONFERENCE IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE" duck to death while beating up on the Charleston Southerns and Citadels of the world.
Without a doubt, even with this unsightly loss, Ole Miss will remain in the top 20 because they lost in a hostile environment in the always so-tough SEC. And even if they turn out to be a .500 SEC team this season, the Rebs will get a much better bowl than they deserve purely because they achieved an 8-4 record in such a tough conference. Never mind that they basically got a free pass with a nonconference schedule that includes Memphis, SE Louisiana (I-AA), UAB and Northern Arizona (I-AA).
If it quacks ... never mind.
★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: California at Oregon, 3:30 p.m. ET. This has all the trappings of a trap game for the Golden Bears, who figure this is finally the year that they take down Pete Carroll's Trojans, who will be visiting Berkeley next week. But Cal had better not take these Ducks (quack!) for granted. After its season-opening debacle at Boise State, Oregon has slowly but surely recovered. Besides, Autzen Stadium has never been all that hospitable to the visiting Bears, who lost in seven of their last eight trips.
★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Miami at Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m. ET. For the second week in a row, a top 20 team is coming to Blacksburg, only this time, it will be a conference game. The resurgent Hurricanes have vaulted into the top 10, thanks to ... Florida State's rout at BYU. Two ACC victories have created a buzz about the 'U' returning to national prominence, especially with a visit from Oklahoma coming next week. But Randy Shannon's boys had better remember first thing first.
★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Iowa at Penn State, 8 p.m. ET. There's another top-5 team that despite its lofty rankings, hasn't done much of anything. Joe Pa's Lions have raced to a 3-0 record by feasting on Akron, Syracuse and Temple whereas Iowa is also 3-0, riding on a seven-game winning streak that began with a 24-23 upset that knocked Penn State out of the BCS championship chase. Happy Valley will smell of revenge.
★★ TWO-STAR GAME: TCU at Clemson, 3:30 p.m. ET. The Mountain West's best hope of getting into a BCS bowl now rests with the Horned Frogs after BYU and Utah were unceremoniously dumped last week. TCU has already played an ACC road game this year, wining the opener at Virginia. But Death Valley isn't quite like the serene, picturesque Jeffersonian campus.
★ ONE-STAR GAME: Texas Tech at Houston, 9:15 p.m. ET. With BYU and Utah out of the way, Houston suddenly has a chance to get into the BCS mix. The Red Raiders, as they've shown in last week's narrow loss to Texas, still have plenty of firepower. This might be the Cougars' sternest test yet in their quest to claim Conference USA's first BCS bowl berth.
Well, nothing, really.
Ole Miss was manhandled by Stever Spurrier's very mortal South Carolina team last night, scoring just one touchdown on a long pass play in a 16-10 loss. The score would've been more lopsided, in the Gamecocks' favor, had it not been Carolina's insistence on shooting itself in the foot repeatedly.
The Ole Miss defeat, without a doubt, brought back the oldest canard (or is it a Peking Duck?) in college sports back on the table: The SEC Is the Toughest Conference in Football. I've gone around this several times and really don't want to waste another second on this dubious subject. And delightfully, the Wall Street Journal (of all papers) came to the rescue.
Do you know what's really the toughest conference in college football in the last 10 years? Yep, it's the Pac-1+9. Check it out:
________________________________________________________________
West Is the Best
Including bowl games, here are the win-loss records this decade for the six major college football conferences when playing against one another, through Saturday:
| BCS CONFERENCE | W | L | WIN% |
| Pac-10 | 81 | 62 | .566 |
| SEC | 94 | 84 | .528 |
| Big 12 | 81 | 85 | .488 |
| ACC* | 99 | 108 | .478 |
| Big East* | 77 | 84 | .478 |
| Big Ten | 84 | 93 | .475 |
*Includes the win-loss records of whichever teams were in the conference in any given year
The Pac-10's edge is so complete, that even if you discard USC's absurd 19-3 record, it is still above .500 against other BCS conferences. The Pac-10 owns a winning record against every other conference during this period, which roughly coincided with the existence of the BCS.
But perception has become so much reality partly because the Pac-10 has consistently failed to toot its own horn. Let's put it this way: The Pac-10 is a mom-and-pop shop run out of a little bank building in Walnut Creek (in Bay Area parlance, there's no there there there). The Big Ten, bottom dwellers on the list, is run like the Roman Empire out of Chicago, replete with its own TV network, media office, the works.
Not to mention the SEC, which has transformed itself during the BCS era from a backwater regional league to a national brand, much the same way NASCAR has marketed itself. With ESPN and CBS leading the way, the SEC has successfully staked the competitive high ground, roasting the "SEC IS THE TOUGHEST CONFERENCE IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE" duck to death while beating up on the Charleston Southerns and Citadels of the world.
Without a doubt, even with this unsightly loss, Ole Miss will remain in the top 20 because they lost in a hostile environment in the always so-tough SEC. And even if they turn out to be a .500 SEC team this season, the Rebs will get a much better bowl than they deserve purely because they achieved an 8-4 record in such a tough conference. Never mind that they basically got a free pass with a nonconference schedule that includes Memphis, SE Louisiana (I-AA), UAB and Northern Arizona (I-AA).
If it quacks ... never mind.
★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: California at Oregon, 3:30 p.m. ET. This has all the trappings of a trap game for the Golden Bears, who figure this is finally the year that they take down Pete Carroll's Trojans, who will be visiting Berkeley next week. But Cal had better not take these Ducks (quack!) for granted. After its season-opening debacle at Boise State, Oregon has slowly but surely recovered. Besides, Autzen Stadium has never been all that hospitable to the visiting Bears, who lost in seven of their last eight trips.
★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Miami at Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m. ET. For the second week in a row, a top 20 team is coming to Blacksburg, only this time, it will be a conference game. The resurgent Hurricanes have vaulted into the top 10, thanks to ... Florida State's rout at BYU. Two ACC victories have created a buzz about the 'U' returning to national prominence, especially with a visit from Oklahoma coming next week. But Randy Shannon's boys had better remember first thing first.
★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Iowa at Penn State, 8 p.m. ET. There's another top-5 team that despite its lofty rankings, hasn't done much of anything. Joe Pa's Lions have raced to a 3-0 record by feasting on Akron, Syracuse and Temple whereas Iowa is also 3-0, riding on a seven-game winning streak that began with a 24-23 upset that knocked Penn State out of the BCS championship chase. Happy Valley will smell of revenge.
★★ TWO-STAR GAME: TCU at Clemson, 3:30 p.m. ET. The Mountain West's best hope of getting into a BCS bowl now rests with the Horned Frogs after BYU and Utah were unceremoniously dumped last week. TCU has already played an ACC road game this year, wining the opener at Virginia. But Death Valley isn't quite like the serene, picturesque Jeffersonian campus.
★ ONE-STAR GAME: Texas Tech at Houston, 9:15 p.m. ET. With BYU and Utah out of the way, Houston suddenly has a chance to get into the BCS mix. The Red Raiders, as they've shown in last week's narrow loss to Texas, still have plenty of firepower. This might be the Cougars' sternest test yet in their quest to claim Conference USA's first BCS bowl berth.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Waiting on the Harris Poll
Next Monday's Simulated BCS Standings will be nearly as good as the real thing (so maybe our friend Chris Dufresne might stop mocking us at the Fabulous Forum). The Harris Poll will be released for the first time on Sunday. That, combined with the Coaches Poll, four of the six computers, gave us nearly 90% of the components of the BCS Standings.
The only components missing would be two computer rankings: Anderson & Hester, which will release its first 2009 ratings after the Oct. 3 games; and Peter Wolfe, who always withholds the data until the first Official BCS Standings are released, this year on Oct. 18.
A few notes about the Harris Interactive College Football Poll, which was founded after the Associated Press demanded that its poll be removed from the BCS Standings following the Cal-Texas Rose Bowl debacle in 2004:
* This is the fifth season that the Harris poll has been an element of the BCS Standings.
* The Harris Poll comprises one-third of the Standings. The other two elements, of course, are the USA Today Coaches Poll and the average of six computer rankings.
* Each of the 11 conferences nominated 30 people to serve on the Harris panel; Harris randomly selected 10 from each bunch. Notre Dame nominated nine (Harris selected three) and Army and Navy nominated three (Harris selected one.) Yep, there are 114 panelists.
* The identities of the panelists will be made available by the end of the week.
* The rankings will be posted on the Harris Web site each Sunday. But each panelist's individual ballot will not be revealed until the final regular season poll. Unlike the AP and Coaches Poll, the Harris Poll does not have a final poll that comes out after the bowls.
The only components missing would be two computer rankings: Anderson & Hester, which will release its first 2009 ratings after the Oct. 3 games; and Peter Wolfe, who always withholds the data until the first Official BCS Standings are released, this year on Oct. 18.
A few notes about the Harris Interactive College Football Poll, which was founded after the Associated Press demanded that its poll be removed from the BCS Standings following the Cal-Texas Rose Bowl debacle in 2004:
* This is the fifth season that the Harris poll has been an element of the BCS Standings.
* The Harris Poll comprises one-third of the Standings. The other two elements, of course, are the USA Today Coaches Poll and the average of six computer rankings.
* Each of the 11 conferences nominated 30 people to serve on the Harris panel; Harris randomly selected 10 from each bunch. Notre Dame nominated nine (Harris selected three) and Army and Navy nominated three (Harris selected one.) Yep, there are 114 panelists.
* The identities of the panelists will be made available by the end of the week.
* The rankings will be posted on the Harris Web site each Sunday. But each panelist's individual ballot will not be revealed until the final regular season poll. Unlike the AP and Coaches Poll, the Harris Poll does not have a final poll that comes out after the bowls.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Poofffffff ... Goes the Mountain West
Well, so much for all that talk about the Mountain West getting an automatic bid to the BCS.
One weekend of upsets restored order somewhat in the BCS universe. Each of the six BCS conferences has at least one team among the top 10 in the latest BCS Standings (simulated). The only BCS buster left standing, for now, is Boise State, who now firmly controls its own destiny for a second BCS bowl berth in three years.
The biggest loser over the weekend is the Mountain West (trumps even USC, but more on the Trojans later). BYU was mercilessly dissected at home by a Florida State team that nearly lost to I-AA Jacksonville State a week earlier. Utah's 16-game winning streak came to an end after its rally at Oregon fell short. As of now, TCU, with two nondescript victories, is the only undefeated MWC member that has a shot at a BCS bowl berth.
Mount St. Helens or Mountain West?
Both the ACC and Big East, much maligned throughout 2008 and in the offseason, made their way back into the top 10. Miami had a meteoric rise, checking in at No. 8, thanks mostly to its bitter rival FSU's romp in Provo. Cincinnati, after a road win at Oregon State, is now the top Big East team at No. 10.
Right behind Cincinnati is USC, last week's No. 1 team in the simulated BCS standings. The Trojans' stumble against Washington may not be fatal for their BCS championship hopes, but it's nonetheless a severe blow. The reason that the Trojans aren't quite out of it is because in two weeks, they'll play a Cal team that's now ranked in the top 5. And since the Pac-10 is fairly strong this season, USC will have a chance to improve its computer rankings, unlike last season when it was never able to recover from an early season loss at Oregon State.
At the top of the standings is Alabama, which now has a commanding lead over No. 2 Texas, which was also No. 2 last week. Florida moves up a spot to No. 3, just barely ahead of LSU, who will present the Gators' toughest road test in three weeks.
The Tigers, in effect, would be ahead of Florida if the other two computer rankings (Anderson & Hester and Peter Wolfe) are available. The Gators are still dogged by their soft schedule and as of now are only getting significant support from Billingsley among the computers. This trend continues to underscore the fact that while Florida will be fine as long as it remains unbeaten, one loss most likely will finish off the Gators for 2009.
One weekend of upsets restored order somewhat in the BCS universe. Each of the six BCS conferences has at least one team among the top 10 in the latest BCS Standings (simulated). The only BCS buster left standing, for now, is Boise State, who now firmly controls its own destiny for a second BCS bowl berth in three years.
The biggest loser over the weekend is the Mountain West (trumps even USC, but more on the Trojans later). BYU was mercilessly dissected at home by a Florida State team that nearly lost to I-AA Jacksonville State a week earlier. Utah's 16-game winning streak came to an end after its rally at Oregon fell short. As of now, TCU, with two nondescript victories, is the only undefeated MWC member that has a shot at a BCS bowl berth.
Mount St. Helens or Mountain West?
Both the ACC and Big East, much maligned throughout 2008 and in the offseason, made their way back into the top 10. Miami had a meteoric rise, checking in at No. 8, thanks mostly to its bitter rival FSU's romp in Provo. Cincinnati, after a road win at Oregon State, is now the top Big East team at No. 10.
Right behind Cincinnati is USC, last week's No. 1 team in the simulated BCS standings. The Trojans' stumble against Washington may not be fatal for their BCS championship hopes, but it's nonetheless a severe blow. The reason that the Trojans aren't quite out of it is because in two weeks, they'll play a Cal team that's now ranked in the top 5. And since the Pac-10 is fairly strong this season, USC will have a chance to improve its computer rankings, unlike last season when it was never able to recover from an early season loss at Oregon State.
At the top of the standings is Alabama, which now has a commanding lead over No. 2 Texas, which was also No. 2 last week. Florida moves up a spot to No. 3, just barely ahead of LSU, who will present the Gators' toughest road test in three weeks.
The Tigers, in effect, would be ahead of Florida if the other two computer rankings (Anderson & Hester and Peter Wolfe) are available. The Gators are still dogged by their soft schedule and as of now are only getting significant support from Billingsley among the computers. This trend continues to underscore the fact that while Florida will be fine as long as it remains unbeaten, one loss most likely will finish off the Gators for 2009.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 3)
The Guru's ballot this week. A couple of notes below:
| ||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | 1 |
| 2 | Texas | 1 |
| 3 | Alabama | 1 |
| 4 | Miami (Florida) | 11 |
| 5 | Boise State | 1 |
| 6 | LSU | 3 |
| 7 | California | |
| 8 | Penn State | |
| 9 | USC | 8 |
| 10 | Ohio State | |
| 11 | Mississippi | 2 |
| 12 | Virginia Tech | 2 |
| 13 | Florida State | |
| 14 | Brigham Young | 9 |
| 15 | Oklahoma | 4 |
| 16 | Houston | 2 |
| 17 | UCLA | 7 |
| 18 | Cincinnati | 4 |
| 19 | Michigan | 6 |
| 20 | Auburn | |
| 21 | Missouri | 4 |
| 22 | TCU | 10 |
| 23 | Oregon | |
| 24 | Oklahoma State | 5 |
| 25 | Georgia | 5 |
| Last week's ballot | ||
Dropped Out: Utah (#16), Georgia Tech (#21), Pittsburgh (#23).
Three weeks into the season, the previous ballots are still essentially meaningless. It's what's happening on the field that counts. That's why there seems to be a bit of an upheaval from last week's ballot to this week's. But the key thing here is that this ballot is completely logical.
* USC dropped eight spots from No. 1 to No. 9, and is now the highest ranked team with one loss. Obviously, the Trojans are ranked ahead of Ohio State by virtual of their victory in Columbus two weeks ago. And they must be ranked behind LSU, which won handily at Husky Stadium (don't let the final score fool you) to open the season.
* Miami shot up the rankings, which had less to do with its own victory over now-unranked Georgia Tech, but much more to do with Florida State's massacre of BYU in Provo. The 'Canes will have a chance to solidify their ranking next week with a home game against Oklahoma.
* UCLA is moving up rapidly, again because of other events besides its own play. The Bruins, fashioning a surprisingly stout defense, got a huge boost from Tennessee's closer-than-expected loss at Florida. UCLA's four-point win at Knoxville now must be viewed a bit more favorably than when it actually took place.
* TCU saw a dramatic drop on my ballot, despite winning its game against I-AA Texas State. The Horned Frogs now have two virtually meaningless wins (the other is against woeful Virginia), so they should consider themselves lucky to even be on the ballot. Other teams, such as Kansas, North Carolina and Pittsburgh, will remain unranked despite perfect records until they achieve a meaningful victory.
Three weeks into the season, the previous ballots are still essentially meaningless. It's what's happening on the field that counts. That's why there seems to be a bit of an upheaval from last week's ballot to this week's. But the key thing here is that this ballot is completely logical.
* USC dropped eight spots from No. 1 to No. 9, and is now the highest ranked team with one loss. Obviously, the Trojans are ranked ahead of Ohio State by virtual of their victory in Columbus two weeks ago. And they must be ranked behind LSU, which won handily at Husky Stadium (don't let the final score fool you) to open the season.
* Miami shot up the rankings, which had less to do with its own victory over now-unranked Georgia Tech, but much more to do with Florida State's massacre of BYU in Provo. The 'Canes will have a chance to solidify their ranking next week with a home game against Oklahoma.
* UCLA is moving up rapidly, again because of other events besides its own play. The Bruins, fashioning a surprisingly stout defense, got a huge boost from Tennessee's closer-than-expected loss at Florida. UCLA's four-point win at Knoxville now must be viewed a bit more favorably than when it actually took place.
* TCU saw a dramatic drop on my ballot, despite winning its game against I-AA Texas State. The Horned Frogs now have two virtually meaningless wins (the other is against woeful Virginia), so they should consider themselves lucky to even be on the ballot. Other teams, such as Kansas, North Carolina and Pittsburgh, will remain unranked despite perfect records until they achieve a meaningful victory.
Friday, September 18, 2009
BCS Weekly News Roundup (Sept. 18)
PAC-10 ON THE RISE (SI.com, Sept. 16) - Can you believe it? The same man who, just a few years ago, probably could have run for governor of Ohio and won in a landslide, is suddenly receiving the John Cooper treatment. I know all those big-game losses are frustrating, Buckeye fans, but let's maintain a little perspective.
COACHING 'FIT' HARD TO FIND (ESPN.com, Sept. 16) - "Fit" is the new buzzword of coaching hirings and firings. It's a tidy word that feeds the collective ego of fans and administrators who believe their program is special. When a coach is successful, it's not just because he recruits good players and teaches them to win. No, he's a good fit. When a coach isn't successful -- especially after he has won at other schools -- he's not a good fit.
BYU SEEKS ANOTHER BCS-BOLSTERING WIN (Panama City News Herald, Sept. 15) - A BYU victory over Florida State would be another building block in what Bronco Mendenhall hopes is a dream season for the Cougars. They are ranked No. 7 in the nation and favored by 7 points on Saturday. It all stems from the opening 14-13 win over Oklahoma.
BREAK UP BCS? JUST WIN, HOUSTON (Nunesmagician, Sept. 15) - Conference USA's Houston returned to the polls for the first time since David Klinger was involved. Their program-changing win in Stillwater not only put them on the map but also jogged the memory of college fans who might have forgotten East Carolina, Tulsa and other upset specialists are lurking in the conference background.
THE GRISLY DEMISE OF TRESSEL BALL (Dr. Saturday, Sept. 14) - There's no sugar-coating this: Jim Tressel and his staff were outcoached against USC and Pete Carroll. Again. Particularly on offense, Ohio State's game plan against the Trojans was utter rubbish, and it failed to meet the No. 1 requirement of every game plan: put your players in position to succeed.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
There Will Be Blood ... in the Swamp
Which fantastic finish will punctuate Saturday's bloodbath between Florida and Tennessee?
a) With Florida clinging to a 73-3 lead, Urban Meyer calls a timeout to tack on an insurance field goal as time expires.
b) With Tennessee trailing only 59-0, Lane Kiffin calls a timeout to set up a goose-egg-busting field goal from 52 yards out, only to have the Vols kicker iced by a Meyer timeout.
c) Florida scores with a minute left to go up, 61-7, then surprises Tennessee with an onside kick to get the ball back for more.
d) When asked why Florida went for two at the end of the game, already up 52-6, Meyer replies: "Because I couldn't go for three."
The better question is, really: Is Kiffin insane?
If you ask Al Davis, he'd say no. He'd tell you that Kiffin is just "a flat-out liar."
This much we do know: Whatever happens in the Swamp on Saturday, it ain't gonna be pretty for the Vols. And they'll have their head coach to thank, who did everything but spray painting Meyer's lawn with graffiti to get the Gators all riled up.
Kiffin attempted at some damage control this week, but it's too little, too late. If Meyer is anything, a forgiving and magnanimous sort, he's not. Last year alone, Meyer punished Miami by kicking a late field goal with Florida already ahead, 23-3; and paid back Mark Richt by calling three timeouts at the end of the game to let Georgia soak in their 49-10 loss.
Florida will flex its muscles on Saturday. The top-ranked Gators, after sort of taking it easy on two overmatched opponents to open the season, are ready to hit somebody, hard. The Vols come to Gainesville just in time as Florida's live tackling dummies.
Can't wait to see that post-game handshake that should make the Bill Belichick-Eric Mangini man-hug seem sincere. Meyer's parting words to Kiffin?
"Welcome to the SEC ... now get the F(... not Florida) out of my house."
★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: Nebraska at Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m. ET. The Florida-Tennessee death match will be great for drama, but it won't be much of a football game. This game, however, will shed a lot of light on just how legit either the Big 12 (North) or the ACC is. Virginia Tech is supposed to be the standard bearer for the ACC - it needs a good performance to wipe away the growing doubt about the conference's BCS fitness.
★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Florida State at BYU, 7 p.m. ET. The Seminoles were a minute away from losing to I-AA Jacksonville State and going 0-2. Now they're visiting Provo against a BYU team that may contend for the BCS national championship. The Cougars get another shot at impressing a national audience in their last major nonconference tilt. A blowout win will solidify their perch in the top 10.
★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Boise State at Fresno State, 9 p.m. ET. This may be the toughest game remaining for the Broncos in their quest for a third unbeaten regular season in the last four years. Last year, Boise blew out Fresno, 61-10, but this time it won't be as easy down in the San Joaquin Valley. The Broncos still must go to Bowling Green and Tulsa, but neither place is as intimidating for a visitor as Bulldog Stadium.
★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Tulsa at Oklahoma, 3:30 p.m. ET. One Conference USA team pulled off a shocker in the state of Oklahoma last week. Will it happen again? In fact, this game may be for the bragging rights in the Sooner State. The Golden Hurricane are playing for their fifth straight bowl berth, and with a victory over Sam Bradford-less OU, the path opens for a BCS bid.
★ ONE-STAR GAME: Cincinnati at Oregon State, 6:45 p.m. ET. This game has huge ramifications for the Big East, already denigrated as undeserving of its automatic BCS berth. If the Bearcats, the highest (and only) ranked Big East team, can't handle the middle-of-the-Pac Beavers, the conference will be the poster child of what's wrong with the BCS all season long.
a) With Florida clinging to a 73-3 lead, Urban Meyer calls a timeout to tack on an insurance field goal as time expires.
b) With Tennessee trailing only 59-0, Lane Kiffin calls a timeout to set up a goose-egg-busting field goal from 52 yards out, only to have the Vols kicker iced by a Meyer timeout.
c) Florida scores with a minute left to go up, 61-7, then surprises Tennessee with an onside kick to get the ball back for more.
d) When asked why Florida went for two at the end of the game, already up 52-6, Meyer replies: "Because I couldn't go for three."
The better question is, really: Is Kiffin insane?
If you ask Al Davis, he'd say no. He'd tell you that Kiffin is just "a flat-out liar."
This much we do know: Whatever happens in the Swamp on Saturday, it ain't gonna be pretty for the Vols. And they'll have their head coach to thank, who did everything but spray painting Meyer's lawn with graffiti to get the Gators all riled up.
Kiffin attempted at some damage control this week, but it's too little, too late. If Meyer is anything, a forgiving and magnanimous sort, he's not. Last year alone, Meyer punished Miami by kicking a late field goal with Florida already ahead, 23-3; and paid back Mark Richt by calling three timeouts at the end of the game to let Georgia soak in their 49-10 loss.
Florida will flex its muscles on Saturday. The top-ranked Gators, after sort of taking it easy on two overmatched opponents to open the season, are ready to hit somebody, hard. The Vols come to Gainesville just in time as Florida's live tackling dummies.
Can't wait to see that post-game handshake that should make the Bill Belichick-Eric Mangini man-hug seem sincere. Meyer's parting words to Kiffin?
"Welcome to the SEC ... now get the F(... not Florida) out of my house."
★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: Nebraska at Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m. ET. The Florida-Tennessee death match will be great for drama, but it won't be much of a football game. This game, however, will shed a lot of light on just how legit either the Big 12 (North) or the ACC is. Virginia Tech is supposed to be the standard bearer for the ACC - it needs a good performance to wipe away the growing doubt about the conference's BCS fitness.
★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Florida State at BYU, 7 p.m. ET. The Seminoles were a minute away from losing to I-AA Jacksonville State and going 0-2. Now they're visiting Provo against a BYU team that may contend for the BCS national championship. The Cougars get another shot at impressing a national audience in their last major nonconference tilt. A blowout win will solidify their perch in the top 10.
★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Boise State at Fresno State, 9 p.m. ET. This may be the toughest game remaining for the Broncos in their quest for a third unbeaten regular season in the last four years. Last year, Boise blew out Fresno, 61-10, but this time it won't be as easy down in the San Joaquin Valley. The Broncos still must go to Bowling Green and Tulsa, but neither place is as intimidating for a visitor as Bulldog Stadium.
★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Tulsa at Oklahoma, 3:30 p.m. ET. One Conference USA team pulled off a shocker in the state of Oklahoma last week. Will it happen again? In fact, this game may be for the bragging rights in the Sooner State. The Golden Hurricane are playing for their fifth straight bowl berth, and with a victory over Sam Bradford-less OU, the path opens for a BCS bid.
★ ONE-STAR GAME: Cincinnati at Oregon State, 6:45 p.m. ET. This game has huge ramifications for the Big East, already denigrated as undeserving of its automatic BCS berth. If the Bearcats, the highest (and only) ranked Big East team, can't handle the middle-of-the-Pac Beavers, the conference will be the poster child of what's wrong with the BCS all season long.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Gators Free Fall to No. 4
Despite its commanding lead in the human polls, Florida has dropped to No. 4 in the latest BCS standings (simulated). The Gators are now not even the highest ranked team in the SEC, falling behind No. 3 Alabama. Texas keeps a slim lead ahead of the Tide at No. 2, while USC has ascended to the top spot with a sizable lead.
Let's cut to the chase, what's happening with the Gators?
With four computers ratings (out of six) already available, the placements in the standings are fairly stable. That the Gators are No. 4 is purely the product of their early-season cupcake schedule.
Florida is No. 5 in Billingsley (and typically the most likely to produce an outlier), the highest of the four computer rankings. It's 20th in Sagarin, 35th (and no points) in Colley and 533rd(!) in Massey. In contrast, USC is ranked 1st, 1st, 13th and 12th by those computers, respectively.
Before you Gator fans go nuts about these computers, relax. It's early in the season and the computers are likely to produce some strange results because of the lack of data. What should worry Florida is that it's becoming obvious that it has no margin for error. Because of the weakness of the schedule, one loss might, and probably will, doom the Gators' repeat championship hopes.
Florida is in a very similar position that USC was in last year. The Trojans opened the season No. 1 and likely would've stayed there by going undefeated. But a late-September loss at Oregon State sank USC, which never made it back above No. 5 the rest of the season, despite every other BCS contender losing at least one game - and all after USC did.
As long as the Gators remain unbeaten, they should have no trouble moving their way back into the top two slots. But since the SEC is not particularly tough this season, that Florida misses both Alabama and Ole Miss in the regular season, plus Florida's two other nonconference foes - Florida International and Florida State (which needed a last-minute TD to fend off I-AA Jacksonville State to avoid going 0-2) are not exactly awe-inspiring, the computers won't be favoring the Gators, that much is certain.
In short, the soft schedule will work both ways for the Gators - it paves a smoother path to the BCS title game, but it will also obliterate their chances with just one stumble.
Moving on down the rankings, Boise State has regained the inside track among non-BCS teams for the one guaranteed spot (if any of them finished among the top 12), checking in at No. 7, ahead of No. 9 BYU. The Cougars have a tougher schedule than the Broncos on paper, but given the recent performances of Florida State and Utah, that may not be the case in reality. These two teams will be in a see-saw battle all season long if they both remain unbeaten.
The team that made the quantum leap this week is Houston, coming off a 45-35 upset at Oklahoma State. These Cougars moved up from No. 52 to No. 21. And don't look now, Conference USA is now nipping at the heels the Big East. Cincinnati, the top ranked team in the Big East, is just one spot ahead of Houston, which has a schedule strong enough to make things interesting should it go through the season unbeaten.
And finally, the loss to Michigan greatly imperils Notre Dame's chances of stealing a BCS bid (never mind the national championship, that was just crazy talk from Granny Holtz). Barring an upset win over USC, there is about no chance for the Irish to get a BCS spot. Notre Dame needs to finish in the top 8 to be guaranteed a spot, and top 14 to be eligible. With few votes, no computer points, and a just one ranked team left on their schedule, the Irish have very little margin for error. And without a BCS bid, Charlie Weis' five-year internship may finally be over.
Let's cut to the chase, what's happening with the Gators?
With four computers ratings (out of six) already available, the placements in the standings are fairly stable. That the Gators are No. 4 is purely the product of their early-season cupcake schedule.
Florida is No. 5 in Billingsley (and typically the most likely to produce an outlier), the highest of the four computer rankings. It's 20th in Sagarin, 35th (and no points) in Colley and 533rd(!) in Massey. In contrast, USC is ranked 1st, 1st, 13th and 12th by those computers, respectively.
Before you Gator fans go nuts about these computers, relax. It's early in the season and the computers are likely to produce some strange results because of the lack of data. What should worry Florida is that it's becoming obvious that it has no margin for error. Because of the weakness of the schedule, one loss might, and probably will, doom the Gators' repeat championship hopes.
Florida is in a very similar position that USC was in last year. The Trojans opened the season No. 1 and likely would've stayed there by going undefeated. But a late-September loss at Oregon State sank USC, which never made it back above No. 5 the rest of the season, despite every other BCS contender losing at least one game - and all after USC did.
As long as the Gators remain unbeaten, they should have no trouble moving their way back into the top two slots. But since the SEC is not particularly tough this season, that Florida misses both Alabama and Ole Miss in the regular season, plus Florida's two other nonconference foes - Florida International and Florida State (which needed a last-minute TD to fend off I-AA Jacksonville State to avoid going 0-2) are not exactly awe-inspiring, the computers won't be favoring the Gators, that much is certain.
In short, the soft schedule will work both ways for the Gators - it paves a smoother path to the BCS title game, but it will also obliterate their chances with just one stumble.
Moving on down the rankings, Boise State has regained the inside track among non-BCS teams for the one guaranteed spot (if any of them finished among the top 12), checking in at No. 7, ahead of No. 9 BYU. The Cougars have a tougher schedule than the Broncos on paper, but given the recent performances of Florida State and Utah, that may not be the case in reality. These two teams will be in a see-saw battle all season long if they both remain unbeaten.
The team that made the quantum leap this week is Houston, coming off a 45-35 upset at Oklahoma State. These Cougars moved up from No. 52 to No. 21. And don't look now, Conference USA is now nipping at the heels the Big East. Cincinnati, the top ranked team in the Big East, is just one spot ahead of Houston, which has a schedule strong enough to make things interesting should it go through the season unbeaten.
And finally, the loss to Michigan greatly imperils Notre Dame's chances of stealing a BCS bid (never mind the national championship, that was just crazy talk from Granny Holtz). Barring an upset win over USC, there is about no chance for the Irish to get a BCS spot. Notre Dame needs to finish in the top 8 to be guaranteed a spot, and top 14 to be eligible. With few votes, no computer points, and a just one ranked team left on their schedule, the Irish have very little margin for error. And without a BCS bid, Charlie Weis' five-year internship may finally be over.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 2)
The Guru's ballot this week. A couple of notes below:
| ||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | USC | |
| 2 | Florida | |
| 3 | Texas | |
| 4 | Alabama | |
| 5 | Brigham Young | |
| 6 | Boise State | 1 |
| 7 | California | 1 |
| 8 | Penn State | 1 |
| 9 | LSU | 2 |
| 10 | Ohio State | 2 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 1 |
| 12 | TCU | 1 |
| 13 | Mississippi | 1 |
| 14 | Virginia Tech | 2 |
| 15 | Miami (Florida) | 2 |
| 16 | Utah | 1 |
| 17 | Missouri | 1 |
| 18 | Houston | |
| 19 | Oklahoma State | 13 |
| 20 | Georgia | 1 |
| 21 | Georgia Tech | |
| 22 | Cincinnati | |
| 23 | Pittsburgh | 1 |
| 24 | UCLA | |
| 25 | Michigan | |
Last week's ballot | ||
Dropped Out: Notre Dame (#20), North Carolina (#23), Oregon State (#25).
Unlike the Week 1 ballot, there is very little movement on my ballot as the world order of college football is taking shape. And also unlike the Week 1 ballot, I did consult with the previous week's ballot to form my decisions, in particular:
1) Only three teams in my Week 1 ballot lost - Ohio State, Oklahoma State and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes lost to top-ranked (on my ballot) USC in a very close game, so they suffered no penalty. In fact, they moved up two spots. The Cowboys lost at home to previously unranked Houston, causing them to slip 13 places. Notre Dame is out of the top 25 altogether after losing to Michigan.
2) North Carolina and Oregon State were dropped after unimpressive wins. The Tar Heels needed a late holding call in the end zone (though the right call) to pull out of a 12-10 win at Connecticut. Oregon State took advantage of a pass interference flag on fourth down (a very questionable call) to keep alive their game-winning drive at UNLV.
3) The three dropouts were replaced in the ballot by Houston, UCLA and Michigan, three teams with easily the most impressive victories this week by previously unranked teams. The Cougars shocked OSU even after blowing an early lead to win in Stillwater. UCLA used a goal-line stand to fend off Tennessee at Neyland Stadium. And Michigan, of course, nipped the Irish behind the wunderkind freshman QB Tate Forcier.
4) USC remains No. 1 on my ballot. The Trojans won at Ohio Stadium, against a highly talented and motivated Buckeyes, in what's so far the signature win of the season by an elite team, eclipsing BYU's victory over Oklahoma. With Utah struggling to beat San Jose State, a team that USC destroyed last week, there is little doubt that the Trojans are a cut above. Until Florida plays somebody (maybe this week against Tennessee) worth a lick, the Gators will have to settle for No. 2, for now.
Unlike the Week 1 ballot, there is very little movement on my ballot as the world order of college football is taking shape. And also unlike the Week 1 ballot, I did consult with the previous week's ballot to form my decisions, in particular:
1) Only three teams in my Week 1 ballot lost - Ohio State, Oklahoma State and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes lost to top-ranked (on my ballot) USC in a very close game, so they suffered no penalty. In fact, they moved up two spots. The Cowboys lost at home to previously unranked Houston, causing them to slip 13 places. Notre Dame is out of the top 25 altogether after losing to Michigan.
2) North Carolina and Oregon State were dropped after unimpressive wins. The Tar Heels needed a late holding call in the end zone (though the right call) to pull out of a 12-10 win at Connecticut. Oregon State took advantage of a pass interference flag on fourth down (a very questionable call) to keep alive their game-winning drive at UNLV.
3) The three dropouts were replaced in the ballot by Houston, UCLA and Michigan, three teams with easily the most impressive victories this week by previously unranked teams. The Cougars shocked OSU even after blowing an early lead to win in Stillwater. UCLA used a goal-line stand to fend off Tennessee at Neyland Stadium. And Michigan, of course, nipped the Irish behind the wunderkind freshman QB Tate Forcier.
4) USC remains No. 1 on my ballot. The Trojans won at Ohio Stadium, against a highly talented and motivated Buckeyes, in what's so far the signature win of the season by an elite team, eclipsing BYU's victory over Oklahoma. With Utah struggling to beat San Jose State, a team that USC destroyed last week, there is little doubt that the Trojans are a cut above. Until Florida plays somebody (maybe this week against Tennessee) worth a lick, the Gators will have to settle for No. 2, for now.
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