Sunday, September 20, 2009

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 3)

The Guru's ballot this week. A couple of notes below:


RankTeamDelta
1 Florida 1
2 Texas 1
3 Alabama 1
4 Miami (Florida) 11
5 Boise State 1
6 LSU 3
7 California
8 Penn State
9 USC 8
10 Ohio State
11 Mississippi 2
12 Virginia Tech 2
13 Florida State
14 Brigham Young 9
15 Oklahoma 4
16 Houston 2
17 UCLA 7
18 Cincinnati 4
19 Michigan 6
20 Auburn
21 Missouri 4
22 TCU 10
23 Oregon
24 Oklahoma State 5
25 Georgia 5
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Utah (#16), Georgia Tech (#21), Pittsburgh (#23).


Three weeks into the season, the previous ballots are still essentially meaningless. It's what's happening on the field that counts. That's why there seems to be a bit of an upheaval from last week's ballot to this week's. But the key thing here is that this ballot is completely logical.

* USC dropped eight spots from No. 1 to No. 9, and is now the highest ranked team with one loss. Obviously, the Trojans are ranked ahead of Ohio State by virtual of their victory in Columbus two weeks ago. And they must be ranked behind LSU, which won handily at Husky Stadium (don't let the final score fool you) to open the season.

* Miami shot up the rankings, which had less to do with its own victory over now-unranked Georgia Tech, but much more to do with Florida State's massacre of BYU in Provo. The 'Canes will have a chance to solidify their ranking next week with a home game against Oklahoma.

* UCLA is moving up rapidly, again because of other events besides its own play. The Bruins, fashioning a surprisingly stout defense, got a huge boost from Tennessee's closer-than-expected loss at Florida. UCLA's four-point win at Knoxville now must be viewed a bit more favorably than when it actually took place.

* TCU saw a dramatic drop on my ballot, despite winning its game against I-AA Texas State. The Horned Frogs now have two virtually meaningless wins (the other is against woeful Virginia), so they should consider themselves lucky to even be on the ballot. Other teams, such as Kansas, North Carolina and Pittsburgh, will remain unranked despite perfect records until they achieve a meaningful victory.

9 comments:

dethwing said...

"Obviously, the Trojans are ranked ahead of Ohio State by virtual of their victory in Columbus two weeks ago. And they must be ranked behind LSU, which won handily at Husky Stadium..."

By the same logic, shouldn't washington be between the LSU and USC? They beat SC and have the same record.

Anonymous said...

How do you select which teams should be held to a standard that they "have to a achieve a meaningful victory"?

mike said...

Always hated the logic that because one team beat another team, they must be ranked higher. If team A beats team B 9 out of 10 times, they are clearly better, but that means they still lose 1/10 of the games. USC played without Taylor Mays or Matt Barkley, but should get them back soon. After the Ohio State game I did believe that USC was slightly better, but I don't believe that Washington is actually better than USC.

Head to head is used when two teams are relatively equal in talent, schedule, etc. Basically, a tie breaker.

dethwing said...

Ignore what happens on the field of play at your own peril.

The Guru said...

The reason why Washington isn't ranked ahead of USC is because the Huskies' only loss was significantly worse than USC's. Obviously, the head-to-head component is a major consideration, but as the season goes on, that significance will erode as other factors come into play.

Jason said...

I think the LSU-UW game was actually closer than the score. Don't get me wrong--I think USC and LSU are both better than Washington. But in the LSU game Washington went up and down the field but had to settle for field goals--if that--instead of TDs, and LSU got a defensive TD to boot. Sort of the same problem (field goals or nothing in the red zone) USC had against Washington.

dethwing said...

"The reason why Washington isn't ranked ahead of USC is because the Huskies' only loss was significantly worse than USC's"

Because losing to an undefeated team out of conference is way worse than losing to a 2-1 in conference? You're not making any sense here.

mike said...

"Because losing to an undefeated team out of conference is way worse than losing to a 2-1 in conference? You're not making any sense here."

Or, losing a conference game on the road playing your backup quarterback and without your best defensive player by a field goal with 3 seconds left, coming off a huge emotional game... is not as bad as losing a home game to a non-conference opponent where a very late TD is what made the score respectable.

I understand you're trying to stir things up but this isn't sports talk radio here. The computers are supposed to be the purely objective component of the BCS, while the human polls let us know that Florida is better than any random 2-0 team from a tiny conference, despite the fact that they have the same record over similar opponents. Stop trying to suggest that the rankings should be purely objective.

The Guru said...

Resume USC vs. UW -

Win over SJSU vs. Win over Idaho (push)

Win at OSU vs. Loss at home to LSU (edge USC)

UW beats USC by 3 (edge UW)

I think USC's edge in the second line slightly offsets UW's edge in the third line, even if it's a head-to-head win.

Head-to-head is an important consideration, but by no means should be the only one.

But it's a long season, this will play itself out.

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