The primary asset of the Guru's system is its predicative value. Instead of rating teams based on (immediate) past performances, the system seeks to predict how each team will perform from this point forward. A team's schedule thus has an overwhelming influence on a team's rankings.
And it makes sense. The Guru's system is designed to predict which two teams are most likely to end up in the BCS national championship game, not necessarily which are the best teams. It goes without saying that a BCS conference team that manages to go undefeated would be a prohibitive favorite to play for the BCS title.
A team playing a tough schedule and/or is in a tough conference will have less of a chance to go unbeaten - but that's balanced by the fact that such an arrangement may bolster its chances in case of a loss. Most of the BCS formula's idiosyncratic nature is taken into account for this system.
Testing the system for preseason 2008, it yielded a USC-Florida BCS title game. The Trojans didn't cooperate by losing at Oregon State; but the Gators, despite a home loss to Ole Miss, did make the title game - and went on to win it. Oklahoma, the other title-game participant, was fourth, behind No. 3 Georgia.
This year's preseason rankings forecast a rematch in the BCS title game, between Florida and Oklahoma. The Gators, in fact, nearly lapped the field. Florida has a talented team that returns quarterback Tim Tebow and the entire defensive starting lineup. It also doesn't have to play two of the SEC's better teams: Alabama and Ole Miss.
So without further ado, here's the Guru preseason Top 25. And this formula will be applied throughout the season, with the results released every Monday until the end of the regular season.
|Rank||Team|| || || || || || || || || || || || || || ||RATING||Conf||Pvs*|
|5||Ohio State||6.322||Big Ten||9|
|6||Penn State||5.837||Big Ten||8|
|16||Oklahoma State||1.239||Big 12||16|
|20||West Virginia||0.814||Big East||23|
|22||Michigan State||0.647||Big Ten||24|
*Pvs- Final 2008 AP poll