The Guru's 2009 Preseason Rankings

This season, the Guru is debuting a rankings formula that's designed entirely with the BCS system in mind. Unlike the human polls - which are completely subjective and prone to bias - or the computer ratings, the Guru's rankings are unique because it looks forward, not backward.

The primary asset of the Guru's system is its predicative value. Instead of rating teams based on (immediate) past performances, the system seeks to predict how each team will perform from this point forward. A team's schedule thus has an overwhelming influence on a team's rankings.

And it makes sense. The Guru's system is designed to predict which two teams are most likely to end up in the BCS national championship game, not necessarily which are the best teams. It goes without saying that a BCS conference team that manages to go undefeated would be a prohibitive favorite to play for the BCS title.

A team playing a tough schedule and/or is in a tough conference will have less of a chance to go unbeaten - but that's balanced by the fact that such an arrangement may bolster its chances in case of a loss. Most of the BCS formula's idiosyncratic nature is taken into account for this system.

Testing the system for preseason 2008, it yielded a USC-Florida BCS title game. The Trojans didn't cooperate by losing at Oregon State; but the Gators, despite a home loss to Ole Miss, did make the title game - and went on to win it. Oklahoma, the other title-game participant, was fourth, behind No. 3 Georgia.

This year's preseason rankings forecast a rematch in the BCS title game, between Florida and Oklahoma. The Gators, in fact, nearly lapped the field. Florida has a talented team that returns quarterback Tim Tebow and the entire defensive starting lineup. It also doesn't have to play two of the SEC's better teams: Alabama and Ole Miss.

So without further ado, here's the Guru preseason Top 25. And this formula will be applied throughout the season, with the results released every Monday until the end of the regular season.

Rank	Team															RATING	Conf	Pvs*
1	Florida															23.695	SEC	1
2	Oklahoma															11.484	Big 12	5
3	USC															11.348	Pac-10	3
4	Texas															10.134	Big 12	4
5	Ohio State															6.322	Big Ten	9
6	Penn State															5.837	Big Ten	8
7	Virginia Tech															3.601	ACC	15
8	Pittsburgh															3.491	Big East	27
9	Boise State															3.244	WAC	11
10	Notre Dame															3.003	Ind	NR
11	Alabama															2.594	SEC	6
12	Texas Christian															2.172	MWC	7
13	Gerogia Tech															1.903	ACC	22
14	Utah															1.740	MWC	2
15	North Carolina															1.293	ACC	NR
16	Oklahoma State															1.239	Big 12	16
17	Oregon															1.155	Pac-10	10
18	Ole Miss															1.106	SEC	14
19	California															1.105	Pac-10	26
20	West Virginia															0.814	Big East	23
21	Brigham Young															0.662	MWC	25
22	Michigan State															0.647	Big Ten	24
23	Iowa															0.501	Big Ten	20
24	LSU															0.196	SEC	28
25	Oregon State															0.193	Pac-10	18
26	Cincinnati															0.147	Big East	17
27	Georgia															0.139	SEC	13
28	Kansas															0.071	Big 12	37
29	Illinois															0.033	Big Ten	NR
30	Florida State															0.013	ACC	21
30	Nebraska															0.013	Big 12	29

*Pvs- Final 2008 AP poll