Saturday, November 12, 2011

A Rematch? Which One?

All that stands between the BCS and rematch hell is an Oklahoma State loss to Oklahoma in their Bedlam showdown.

At least that's how it looks after Saturday's bloodletting. Both Stanford and Boise State went down against familiar foes. And as a result, there are only three unbeaten FBS teams left and only two of them have a shot at the BCS national title game.

Both Stanford and Boise State ran into their respective kryptonite. The Cardinal have lost just twice in their last 23 games, and both of those were to Oregon. Last year, it was a 52-31 beatdown in Eugene. This time, it was a 53-30 meltdown on the Farm.

It's worse for Boise. At least Stanford just flat-out got beat. The Broncos had several chances to close out a victory that surely would've sent them to yet another perfect regular season but failed to do so. The crushing 36-35 loss not only destroyed their hopes of a BCS title game berth, it also all but extinguished their chances for a third BCS bowl in six years. Boise has lost just three times in its last 49 games - two of those came against TCU, each by a point.

What all that left us is a BCS Standings that's begging for a rematch. LSU and Oklahoma State are safely perched at the top, each headed to New Orleans if it can win out. But should OSU lose to OU, then it could be LSU-Alabama or LSU-Oregon. We have seen both of those movies before.

Luckily, we still have three more weeks to shake things out. And LSU isn't out of the woods yet by any means, with a home game against Arkansas and a likely SEC title game against resurgent Georgia left. We're just getting warmed up here.

I will have more analysis Sunday morning at SB Nation. For now, here are the projected BCS Standings:

1. LSU, 2. Oklahoma State, 3. Alabama, 4. Oregon, 5. Oklahoma, 6. Arkansas, 7. Stanford, 8. Clemson, 9. Boise State, 10. Virginia Tech, 11. Houston, 12. South Carolina, 13. Georgia, 14. Michigan State, 15. Kansas State.


Anonymous said...

I agree with your predictions for this week but at the same time I still fill cheated. Arkansas beat #9 USC and drops. Oregon beats an overrated #4 Stanfor Carinal (Notice no D) and they jump up! I know it's because teams ahead of them lost but it still can get to you a little bit.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

No I think he wants to be filled.......

Anonymous said...

not sure why Boise St would be out of a BCS game. They're still ahead of the Big East and Big Ten leaders and will finish in the top 12. Which means an automatic berth, unless Houston passes them.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the commenter... Boise State still has a solid chance at a BCS bowl. Houston has the toughest part of its schedule coming up. If they win out, yes, they'll overtake Boise and head to a BCS bowl. But a loss seems somewhat likely, and I think 1-loss Boise State would then hit all the requirements for a guaranteed BCS bid. Boy would that piss off the AQ's!

Anonymous said...

Can't understand why you leave out the possiblity of Oklahoma making it to the BCS. They most likely will have wins against a 2 loss KState, 2 loss Florida State, and 1 loss Oklahoma State ALL ON THE ROAD. Yes they have the loss to Texas Tech who played their game of the year in Norman, after a 2 hour lightning delay, and the Sooners with 4 starters out including their 3 best Defensinve players. They will have the chance to be Okie State in the last game of the night on December 3 leaving a lasting impression on the voters MOST DON"T WANT TO SEE A REMATCH..

Anonymous said...

How is CHOKELAHOMA above Arkansas?

Arkansas lost to number 3 Alabama.
Oklahoma lost to UNRANKED Texas Tech.

Arkansas has a stronger schedule and Oklahoma was idle this week.

Why not bump them up?

Anonymous said...

It'll be a really interesting scenario if the voters have to pick among a bunch of 1-loss teams for the BCS championship. Will they try to pick the best team? The team with the most impressive "resume"? Or will they try to avoid a rematch?

Anonymous said...

Oklahoma has the 6th hardest schedule in the country after this weekend. Arkansas has the 49th hardest. Yes, they play LSU but OU plays OSU. Here are the SoS for major teams right now:

OU 6
Kansas State 8
LSU 18
Alabama 20
Oregon 26
Boise 43
Arkansas 49
Stanford 51

Similarly, against top 30 Sagarin teams:

OSU 6-0
OU 6-0
LSU 2-0
Bama 2-1
Oregon 2-1
Arkansas 2-1

OU has a bad win. But if they win out, they will have the strongest schedule of any one-loss team and they will have beaten the most top 30 teams.

Anonymous said...

Boise is out of a BCS berth because the rules state that the automatic berth for a non-AQ team must go to a conference champion. Don't count out Tulsa's chances for a BCS berth. If they beat Houston, and then Southern Miss in the CUSA championship game with their only losses to Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, and Boise, they could pass TCU, who lost to Baylor and SMU. TCU's remaining games against Colorado St and UNLV will not help them.

Brian said...

This is the stupidest thing that I have ever we heard of! U have an Oklahoma team that hasn't won one a game against a decent opponent yet that's right the big twelve is a joke ! Really Texas was still a ranked team as of this weekend until they scored an amazing 5 points against a horrible mizzou team that will have a losing record in a down eastern division of the sec next year and ok. State pounded a tech team that beat oklahoma team at home ! Not to mention an Oregon team that hasn't played a decent team since Lsu at the beginning of the year on a neatral field and lost by the way ! Meanwhile my beloved razorbacks do nothing but win in the toughest conference in the country and the polls still leave them lagging behind ! U pollsters try to prop up these weak conferences with ur stats and strength of schedule jargon ! Look facts are facts the last 5 national champions have came from the sec and it seems the pollsters are tired of that so they are determined to hold the sec down unless you are Alabama or Lsu apparently you just don't count ! The experts say it will work itself out ! My question is if they let Oklahoma stay above Arkansas after not playing this week and loosing at home to an unranked Texas tech team that quite frankly doesn't look like that could win a fight with a wet paper sack ! Then maybe the so called. Experts have no Idea what they are doing ! Arkansas has one lost to an Alabama team that hasn't left the top 5 all year ! Quite frankly u experts need to spend time watching games that matter instead of trying to create a scenario where u give someone else a chance they don't deserve !my suggestion the sec should withdraw from the bcs and declair it's own national champion and dare any of these other teams to play them if they want the crown they should have to take it not have it given to them by a bunch of cowardly voters that apparently must be blind and stupid !

Kurt Sahr said...

It seems odd to me that there was no mention of Oklahoma as a possible NCG opponent in the Guru's article as well. With a win over Oklahoma State, their computer rankings would jump (the Big 12 already ranks strong in the computers), and the voters are likely to want to avoid a rematch, so that might affect their votes.

bill said...

My projected #BCS Top 15:
1. LSU
2. OSU
3. Bama 4. Oregon
5. OU
6. Arkansas
7. Stanford
8. Clemson
9. VT
10. South Carolina
11. Boise
12. Houston
13. Kansas State
14. Georgia
15. Michigan State

Anonymous said...

SEC Ballsucking Homer sucks SEC Balls. Nice rant, Brian.

Irlbecktech said...

Check out Week 12 Brackets:

Anonymous said...

Oregon's remaining schedule is stronger than Alabama's schedule

Oregon: USC in the teens, ASU/UCLA/Utah at mid 30s, OrState at 90s

Bama: Auburn at mid 30s, GaSouthern not in FBS.

(rankings from Massey Combined poll)

Is that increase in SOS enough to push Oregon above Alabama in the computers?

The Guru said...

Oklahoma is the central theme of my Monday column at SB Nation. Can't give everything away all at once.

Here's the link -

Anonymous said...

oklahoma is the notre dame of the 90's. A media darling who's always given the benefit of the doubt and always chokes. Well, i guess they did pull one out against Uconn. so i stand corrected. ;) Not.

I get that people don't want to see a rematch and i suppose im one them. Watching LSU pound Oregon again won't prove anything and if Alabama should beat LSU in a rematch all it would really prove is that they are dead even.

at this point id like to see LSU play OK state.

what would be really great is if #3 alabama could play # 4oregon.

ok state and lsu wont be very competitive but alabama v oregon might.

Bayou Bengal said...

If Oklahoma beats Okla State why can't the Harris voters and USA Today Coaches put Oklahoma ahead of Oregon and Alabama like they did to LSU in 2007? That year they jumped LSU from #7 to #2 over a VA Tech team that won that same weekend and several idle teams - UGA and Kansas - as well as two losers - Mizzou and WVU. They could choose against a rematch of teams already beaten by LSU and choose a 2004 BCSCG rematch!