LSU hasn't won anything yet.
Saturday night's "Game of the Century" lived up to its billing, at least defensively. The Bayou Bengals made enough big plays and rode their superior kicking game to a classic 9-6 win in overtime.
(Or as I tweeted: LSU 2, Alabama 2, LSU wins on PK, 1-0)
But this victory guarantees the Tigers nothing, particularly if they fail to follow up with a victory over Arkansas. In fact, a loss to Arkansas may cost LSU a trip to the SEC championship game, never mind the BCS national championship game.
Largely went unnoticed Saturday night was Arkansas' 44-28 victory over South Carolina that had a huge impact on both SEC divisions. The loss by the Gamecocks put the SEC East in the hands of Georgia, which can win the division by beating Auburn and Kentucky. Arkansas, on the other hand, stays alive for a share of the SEC West title.
Should Arkansas win at LSU the night after Thanksgiving, there could be a three-way tie atop the SEC West, with all three teams having identical 11-1 records. In that case, you'll have to go to the bottom of the SEC tiebreaker to determine the winner: Highest ranked in the BCS standings.
As of tomorrow, three SEC West teams will be in the top seven of the BCS Standings, with Alabama coming in third.
It will be close between Alabama and Stanford for the No. 3 spot, mostly depending on the voters, as Alabama will still be comfortably ahead of Stanford in the computer rankings. There will be a significant drop to No. 5 Boise State.
For more analysis in the immediate aftermath of LSU-Alabama, not to mention several other BCS-impact games, see my column in SB Nation on Sunday morning. For now, here are the projections:
1. LSU, 2. Oklahoma State, 3. Alabama, 4. Stanford, 5. Boise State, 6. Oklahoma, 7. Arkansas, 8. Oregon, 9. Clemson, 10. Virginia Tech, 11. Houston, 12. Penn State, 13. Kansas State, 14. South Carolina, 15. Michigan State.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
10 comments:
I think you mean the SEC West is determined by the BCS Standings, not the SEC Standings.
@Bill - You beat me to it. I was just making another round of edits. But thanks!
The highest rank BCS team won't necessarily determine a 3-way tie. If the second highest ranked team is within 5 spots of the highest ranked team, which they probably will be, then the head-to-head match-up between them will determine who goes to Atlanta. If Arkansas beats LSU and finishes the season ranked the highest, but Alabama is within 5 spots, then Alabama goes to Atlanta because it beat Arkansas.
In my example Alabama would be the 2nd highest ranked team. If LSU were the 2nd, with Arkansas #1, then Arkansas would go.
Alabama, with one loss, should not be ranked ahead of undefeated Stanford. If this is the case, it is just another flaw in the system. Oklahoma State will lose down the stretch and that should give Stanford the inside track to the national championship game if they get through Oregon next week. Go Cardinal.
Guru, do you really think Arkansas will stay ahead of Oregon? Look at all the teams that Oregon will pass in the computers this week. Doesn't even look like it will be that close for 7th.
"Alabama, with one loss, should not be ranked ahead of undefeated Stanford. If this is the case, it is just another flaw in the system. Oklahoma State will lose down the stretch and that should give Stanford the inside track to the national championship game if they get through Oregon next week. Go Cardinal."
Since you seem to feel that it's a given that OSU will lose down the stretch, I will just as easily argue that Stanford will lose down the stretch in Eugene.
ties to determine the SEC Football Championship Game representative. All Conference versus Conference Games (both division and non-division) will be counted in the Conference Standings.
A. TWO-TEAM TIE
1. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
2. Records of the tied teams within the division.
3. Head-to-head competition vs. the team within the division with the best overall record (divisional and non-divisional) Conference record and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last.
4. Overall record vs. all common non-divisional opponents.
5. Combined record vs. all common non-divisional teams.
6. Record vs. common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference (divisional and non-divisional) record and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division.
7. The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the last weekend of regular-season games shall be the divisional representative in the SEC Championship Game.
B. THREE (OR MORE) TEAM TIE
1. (Once the tie has been reduced to two teams, go to the two-team tie-breaker format.)
2. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams.
3. Record of the tied teams within the division.
4. Head-to-head competition vs. the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference record and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last.
5. Overall record vs. non-division teams.
6. Combined record vs. all common non-divisional teams.
7. Record vs. common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference (divisional and non-divisional) record and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division.
8. The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the last weekend of regular-season games shall be the divisional representative in the SEC Championship Game, unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the SEC Championship Game.
Oregon jumping Arkansas was a mild surprise, with how much of a boost it got in the computers (over .200).
And yes, I addressed the SEC tiebreaker quirk in my lengthy SB Nation piece. I cannot repost here, so you'll have to read it on that site. But I went over all the painstaking details there.
Unless Arkansas and LSU both crowd into the limited space above #3 Alabama, Arkansas won't win the SEC West unless the Tide also drop a game.
Post a Comment