The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 14)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with a slight chance at the top, more below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 14

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oregon Ducks	--
2	Auburn Tigers	2
3	TCU Horned Frogs	-1
4	Stanford Cardinal	1
5	Nevada Wolf Pack	4
6	Boise St. Broncos	-3
7	Wisconsin Badgers	--
8	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
9	Michigan St. Spartans	2
10	Arkansas Razorbacks	3
11	LSU Tigers	-5
12	Nebraska Cornhuskers	2
13	Missouri Tigers	2
14	Oklahoma Sooners	2
15	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	-5
16	Virginia Tech Hokies	1
17	Utah Utes	1
18	Alabama Crimson Tide	-6
19	Texas A&M Aggies	--
20	South Carolina Gamecocks	--
21	Hawaii Warriors	1
22	Florida St. Seminoles	2
23	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	2
24	San Diego St. Aztecs	--
25	Northern Illinois Huskies	--
Dropouts: Arizona Wildcats, N.C. State Wolfpack

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* I don't buy the media's sudden distaste for TCU, which was first unleashed by Rodney Gilmore on ESPN and since picked up by all sorts of talking heads, who've seen TCU probably once all season. OK, TCU's schedule hasn't been murder's row, but neither was Ohio State's (better check the facts before opening your mouth, Gordon Gee!). But if Ohio State is one of only two unbeaten teams left, you think you'd hear a single argument about whether the Buckeyes are worthy?

* That said, I had to move Auburn up to No. 2 after Boise State's loss. The Tigers were lucky to beat Alabama, but we're in the results business. They won, and they have played a much tougher schedule than TCU's. But they should not be ranked ahead of Oregon because ...

* Auburn does NOT play in the toughest conference in the country! The next time I hear that phrase used to describe the SEC I'm going to throw acid on my TV! The toughest conference this season is the Pac-10, yep, the conference that might have only three bowl eligible teams. Of the toughest 11 schedules played this season, nine belong to the Pac-10. The weakest schedule of any conference members is played by Oregon, at No. 19. The Pac-10 is the toughest conference because it plays nine conference games and challenging OOC games. These teams do not schedule, per Gordon Gee, the little sisters of the poor.

* Stanford is hands down the best one-loss team in the country. It's a shame that the Cardinal won't get another shot at Oregon, because these two just might be the two best teams in the country.

* Nevada might be overranked on my ballot a bit, but since they have the same record as Boise State, why shouldn't they be ranked ahead of the Broncos? And there is no way that Boise should be behind any of the one-loss Big Ten teams. Boise's SOS is 62, and the Big Ten trio: Michigan State (60), Ohio State (64), Wisconsin (71).

* Other teams considered this week: Air Force, West Virginia.

Does Auburn Have a Bye on Saturday?

Should Gene Chizik hold out Cam Newton and most of his starters on Saturday, not because of eligibility issues, but to rest them for the BCS title game?

Absurd thought, right? But not as far fetched as you think. There's a chance that Auburn can lose to South Carolina in the SEC championship game and still get in the BCS title game.

It's happened before, twice, when a team that lost its final game and still played for the BCS title: Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003. But it's not happened since '03 because of the most recent change in the BCS formula, which now grants two-thirds of its weight toward human polls.

So if Auburn loses on Saturday, the 173 voters in the coaches and Harris polls will be the judges in this beauty pageant that, if you think about it, is pretty much like American Idol or Dancing with the Stars.

This is how it works. Even with a loss, Auburn is expected to be No. 1 in at least 3 computers. Its final computer score will be No. 1, ahead of both Oregon and TCU, even with a loss. At worst, Auburn will have a .980 computer score.

Now, if TCU wants to get past Auburn, it had better hope that every voter has the Horned Frogs at no worse than No. 2. If that's the case, fine, TCU gets to play Oregon. If enough voters waffle on who should be No. 2 and split them up between TCU and Auburn, then TCU might not get that date with the Ducks.

There is already plenty of chatter about TCU's worthiness for the BCS title game, a battle joined by Rodney Gilmore during ESPN's show on Sunday, during which he brazenly discredited almost everything the Horned Frogs did this season. There is little doubt that such sentiment is shared by some of those voters, who will look for every excuse to prevent TCU from becoming the first non-AQ team to play for the BCS title.

That fear is clearly reflected in the school's rushed decision today to basically destroy all of its athletic programs by joining the Big East, in a vain quest to be part of the BCS crowd. Case-in-point: TCU has a powerhouse baseball program that soon must play UConn, Rutgers and Georgetown and nowhere near Texas, that's really going to help its recruiting tremendously.

But that's a different post for a different day. For now, here are the scenarios for BCS games:

Oregon and Auburn both win:

BCS Championship - Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl - TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford

Oregon loses, Auburn wins or loses:

BCS Championship - Auburn vs. TCU
Rose Bowl - Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas or South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford

Oregon wins, Auburn loses:

(if 85% or more voters put Auburn third or worse)

BCS Championship - Oregon vs. TCU
Rose Bowl - Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Auburn
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Big East Champ

(if 15% or more voters put Auburn third or better)

BCS Championship - Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl - TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford

Of course, Chizik would do no such thing as holding out his best players, but the fact remains that as long as the Tigers don't get blown out of the building, they have a real shot to play for the BCS title even if they lose. No team other than the top three in the BCS standings has a prayer of getting into the title game no matter what happens Saturday, as Oregon will not be dropped behind Stanford after having beaten the Cardinal by 21 points earlier in the season.

As for the Rose Bowl, since I am the man who made the famous flub, of course I should predict, with utter confidence, that Wisconsin is in. No matter what happens this weekend, Badger fans, you can book your tickets to Pasadena now. The Guru says so. (And as a former resident of Pasadena, I may even offer you some tips.)

How the Guru Whiffed on Bucky

So I blew it. In my five years of being the BCS Guru, this was the worst flub I've ever had. Because one of the mistakes is so egregious, I owe you folks an explanation.

The first mistake was fairly minor, that Auburn went ahead of Oregon by .0002. I didn't foresee the Tigers gaining that much ground in the polls after a game that they were truly lucky to win (Alabama really should've had a 35-0 lead and put the game to bed in the second quarter). I knew Auburn would be No. 1 in all the computers, so as soon as both polls came out, I knew the exact margin and Tweeted it as much.

Now, the serious mistake was having Ohio State ahead of Wisconsin in the original projection. That of course goes beyond flip-flopping teams in the 5 and 6 spots because of what's at stake - a Rose Bowl berth.

First, there's the obvious question of whether this was a publicity stunt. Fair question. If it were, then that means I have no integrity and was going for the cheap thrill of getting undue attention. That's absolutely not the case. I've been toiling at this for too long and built up too much goodwill and trust than to risk it for some one-night stand.

Then it becomes a question of competence. Having your credibility in doubt isn't all that much better than having your integrity savaged. When no WMD was found in Iraq, President Bush was called either a liar or a dunce by his critics. Same here, but of course with much less at stake.

The erroneous projection happened because of a miscalculation of the polls and a simple data entry error. If only one of the two occurred, it would not have happened. That the fact both of them happened on this one projection (on Ohio State) made it a perfect storm.

First, the poll miscalculation. The polls are always harder to project than the computers because it involves psychology. You have to form an educated evaluation on the behavior of the voters. That's much more difficult than analyzing the computers, which follows a certain formula and ironclad logic. I had believed that by virtue of LSU's loss to Arkansas, thus removing it as a buffer between Ohio State and Wisconsin, the Buckeyes would gain significant ground in the polls.

That didn't happen in the margins I had forecast. Wisconsin lost only 26 points in the coaches poll and a completely unforeseen 24 points in the Harris poll, out of 114 voters. I had projected the Buckeyes to pick up about 100 points in the Harris poll with LSU gone, but that simply didn't happen.

Now you must wonder, given that I had to know Wisconsin would stay ahead of Ohio State in the two polls, did I completely screw up on the computers?

The truth is, I didn't. That's why this was such a mind-numbing debacle.

I simply transposed two projections. on Massey and Sagarin, I assigned the values of 20 (for No. 6) to OSU instead of OU on my spreadsheet, and 10 (No. 16) for OSU to OU.

By making these mistakes, Ohio State's computer numbers were inflated to .790 instead of .680 (OSU's actual BCS computer score was .660) and Oklahoma's was deflated from .780 to .640 (OU actual: .760). This explains why OU was also initially projected to be a spot lower (No. 10) than it ended up (No. 9).

I don't expect everyone who reads this blog to get all this - and you shouldn't have to. It was incumbent on me to check and double-check my own data before publishing the projections. Perhaps I was in too much of a rush to get the projections out (this has become a bad habit since I moved back to the West Coast), or maybe because I did so well the last two weeks (1-10 in exact order two weeks ago and 1-13 last week) that a little hubris got the better of meticulousness.

Whatever, it was my mistake and I own it. The only thing to do is to acknowledge it and make sure it won't happen again. I still maintain that my record speaks for itself over the years, against Jerry Palm, Brad Edwards, anybody. I have a report card dating from 2006 to prove it.

And finally, I don't mind the criticism and even the hate mail. I deserve it, and I won't erase any of it to cover my own ass. You can't make me feel any worse than I already do.

BCS Gets Lucky Once Again

(The Guru's Note: If you just found this post, be sure to read this also. Thank you.)

The BCS ought to cut Nevada a fat check, seeing the upset of Boise State saved it untold millions, not to mention a potential public relations nightmare. That, coupled with Auburn's Lazarus-like comeback against Alabama, is setting up a relatively controversy-free postseason.

The deal for the main event is now pretty cut-and-dried. It will be Oregon vs. Auburn. If either is upset next week, TCU, which has locked up at worst a Rose Bowl berth, will be the stand-in. The only potential for chaos now is if both teams go down next week - Oregon plays at Oregon State in the Civil War game and Auburn faces South Carolina in the SEC championship game.

The Cameron Newton saga actually isn't in play now. Even if the NCAA rules him ineligible, Auburn's victory will not be vacated by next week. Whatever the Tigers achieve this season may be erased later, but not before this season is over.

On the undercard, however, there's a whole lot going on ...

1) TCU: With its rout of New Mexico, TCU becomes the first team to complete an undefeated season. At worst, the Frogs will earn a Rose Bowl berth against the Big Ten champion. And with LSU's loss to Arkansas, their spot in the top three will not be threatened no matter what happens next week.

2) Rose Bowl: LSU's loss made the Wisconsin-Ohio State race much closer, because the Tigers were wedged between these two teams in the polls. So close that the Guru is calling Ohio State to edge slightly in front. Keep in mind that the Big Ten will send the highest ranked team in the final BCS standings to the Rose Bowl, so this won't be decided until next week even though the Big Ten schedule is done. The Rose Bowl will be rooting for an Auburn loss, because then it will be free to pick Stanford to replace Oregon.

3) Stanford: Losses by LSU and Boise State also have enormous meaning for Stanford, which is now in position to be guaranteed a BCS bowl berth. The Cardinal will be No. 4 in the new BCS standings, and by BCS rule, it will have to be chosen by one of the BCS bowls. It remains to be seen whether Jim Harbaugh will be coaching that game.

4) Big 12: Oklahoma's bedlam of a victory over Oklahoma State produced the dreaded three-way tie in the Big 12 South for the second time in three years. OU will gain enough ground to take the division but it just boggles the mind why conferences would choose to use a ranking system that's so easily manipulated by outside influences, or even the participants themselves. In the Big Ten's case, all three head coaches have a vote in the coaches poll; but in the Big 12's case, Mike Sherman has a vote but Bob Stoops and Mike Gundy don't. It's pure insanity.

5) The Biggest Loser: If it wasn't so important to the Broncos you'd think that they lost to Nevada just to spite the WAC, which stands to lose nearly $10 million by missing out on a BCS bowl. But Boise State lost its chance to play in its third BCS bowl, probably the Rose Bowl, and possibly a shot at the national championship. They won't even win the conference outright, and will be consigned to play in either the Kraft Fight Hunger or Humanitarian Bowl against some 6-6 team.

6) The Biggest Winner: Meanwhile, UConn, a team that was manhandled by a second-division Big Ten team (Michigan) and a fifth-place team in the MAC (Temple), is one win away from a BCS Bowl berth. The Big East is committing grand larceny.

7) Bowl picture: The Guru will have a complete breakdown on all the bowls next week, but on a quick count, we now have exactly 70 bowl eligible teams, filling all 35 bowl games, with four teams (Washington, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana Tech) can still play their way in by winning their final game. Of those four, only UW is likely to win and get a bowl bid, and if it does, then Western Michigan is out.

This week's projected BCS standings: 1. Oregon, 2. Auburn, 3. TCU, 4. Stanford, 5. Ohio State, 6. Wisconsin, 7. Arkansas, 8. Michigan State, 9. LSU, 10. Oklahoma, 11. Boise State, 12. Oklahoma State, 13. Nebraska, 14. Missouri, 15. Nevada.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 13)

Another relatively quiet week as far as the top of the polls is concerned. Nebraska did go down - loudly, we might add, and obnoxiously, to the point where the school's chancellor was none too pleased:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 13

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oregon Ducks	--
2	TCU Horned Frogs	--
3	Boise St. Broncos	--
4	Auburn Tigers	--
5	Stanford Cardinal	--
6	LSU Tigers	--
7	Wisconsin Badgers	--
8	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
9	Nevada Wolf Pack	2
10	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	--
11	Michigan St. Spartans	1
12	Alabama Crimson Tide	1
13	Arkansas Razorbacks	1
14	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-5
15	Missouri Tigers	--
16	Oklahoma Sooners	--
17	Virginia Tech Hokies	--
18	Utah Utes	--
19	Texas A&M Aggies	2
20	South Carolina Gamecocks	--
21	Arizona Wildcats	2
22	Hawaii Warriors	--
23	N.C. State Wolfpack	2
24	Florida St. Seminoles	--
25	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	--
Dropouts: USC Trojans, Northwestern Wildcats, Iowa Hawkeyes

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* I'm not willing to move Boise State over TCU just yet. I might change my mind this week depending on the outcome of the Boise State-Nevada game. A lot of voters in other polls are of the same mind, though most of them have already defected to the Broncos over the past two weeks. Oregon and Auburn also have two more chances to make their final arguments, though the Tigers, with a cloud over Cam Newton and doubts about their defense, have the most to prove.

* With one-loss teams having dwindled down to just seven, it may be difficult for the BCS bowls to justify taking an at-large team with multiple losses over an undefeated TCU or Boise. If the Broncos should jump TCU in the final standings, now look for the Orange Bowl to "take one for the team" and pit the Frogs against the ACC champion. It would rather have an SEC team, such as either LSU or Alabama, but it may be too politically dangerous for the BCS.

* Other teams considered: Iowa, Air Force, San Diego State, West Virginia, Northern Illinois.

Week 12 Complete BCS Standings

This week's BCS Standings, temporarily stored here, will be reformatted and relocated to the usual location after Thanksgiving:

Rank	Pvs	Team	Rk	Coach	%	Rk	Harris	%	AH	CM	JS	KM	PW	RB	Cp Avg	BCS	Conf
1	1	Oregon	1	1459	0.9892	1	2793	0.9800	24	21	24	24	24	24	0.960	0.9764	P10
2	2	Auburn	2	1398	0.9478	2	2727	0.9568	25	25	25	25	25	22	1.000	0.9682	SEC
3	3	TCU	4	1300	0.8814	4	2557	0.8972	23	24	21	22	23	25	0.920	0.8995	MWC
4	4	Boise State	3	1341	0.9092	3	2619	0.9189	21	22	19	20	20	23	0.830	0.8860	WAC
5	5	LSU	6	1175	0.7966	6	2227	0.7814	22	23	23	21	22	21	0.880	0.8193	SEC
6	6	Stanford	8	1112	0.7539	7	2209	0.7751	16	20	22	23	21	17	0.800	0.7763	P10
7	7	Wisconsin	5	1211	0.8210	5	2295	0.8053	18	14	17	17	16	19	0.680	0.7688	BTen
8	9	Ohio State	7	1116	0.7566	8	2131	0.7477	20	16	15	11	17	16	0.640	0.7148	BTen
9	10	Oklahoma State	9	990	0.6712	9	1805	0.6333	19	19	16	19	18	18	0.740	0.6815	B12
10	12	Michigan State	10	927	0.6285	10	1797	0.6305	17	15	11	10	15	15	0.560	0.6063	BTen
11	11	Alabama	11	885	0.6000	11	1783	0.6256	13	12	18	13	14	20	0.580	0.6019	SEC
12	13	Arkansas	12	784	0.5315	12	1589	0.5575	12	13	20	18	19	11	0.620	0.5697	SEC
13	14	Oklahoma	13	733	0.4969	13	1412	0.4954	15	17	10	14	11	12	0.520	0.5041	B12
14	15	Missouri	16	585	0.3966	16	1176	0.4126	14	18	13	16	13	10	0.560	0.4564	B12
15	8	Nebraska	15	614	0.4163	15	1199	0.4207	11	11	14	12	12	14	0.490	0.4423	B12
16	16	Virginia Tech	14	723	0.4902	14	1322	0.4639	8	9	5	4	9	9	0.310	0.4213	ACC
17	19	Texas A&M	18	492	0.3336	18	936	0.3284	10	10	12	15	10	7	0.420	0.3607	B12
18	17	South Carolina	17	577	0.3912	17	1037	0.3639	9	7	8	9	6	8	0.320	0.3583	SEC
19	18	Nevada	19	456	0.3092	19	894	0.3137	7	8	4	7	7	5	0.260	0.2943	WAC
20	23	Utah	22	228	0.1546	20	495	0.1737	6	6	6	6	8	13	0.260	0.1961	MWC
21	22	Arizona	20	279	0.1892	21	471	0.1653	2	3	7	8	4	6	0.200	0.1848	P10
22	25	Florida State	21	243	0.1647	22	439	0.1540	5	5	0	0	2	0	0.070	0.1296	ACC
23	28	NC State	23	208	0.1410	23	330	0.1158	0	4	0	0	1	1	0.020	0.0923	ACC
24	20	Iowa	24	74	0.0502	24	284	0.0996	4	1	3	3	3	3	0.120	0.0899	BTen
25	21	Mississippi State	25	68	0.0461	25	178	0.0625	1	0	9	5	5	4	0.150	0.0862	SEC
26	30	Northern Illinois	26	67	0.0454	26	94	0.0330	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0261	MAC
27	33	Florida	31	12	0.0081	29	41	0.0144	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.020	0.0142	SEC
28	39	West Virginia	30	13	0.0088	27	49	0.0172	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0087	East
29	40	Central Florida	27	21	0.0142	30	30	0.0105	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0083	CUSA
30	31	Hawaii	28	20	0.0136	31	24	0.0084	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0073	WAC
31	35	Baylor			0.0000			0.0000	0	0	2	2	0	0	0.020	0.0067	B12
32	38	Navy	33	7	0.0047	28	42	0.0147	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0065	Ind
33	41	Southern Miss	29	16	0.0108	33	9	0.0032	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0047	CUSA
34	24	Miami (FL)	32	11	0.0075	33	9	0.0032	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0035	ACC
35	NR	Texas Tech			0.0000			0.0000	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.010	0.0033	B12
36	45	Penn State	36	4	0.0027	32	11	0.0039	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0022	BTen
37	NR	Ohio	34	5	0.0034	35	7	0.0025	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0019	MAC
38	42	Air Force	34	5	0.0034	36	6	0.0021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0018	MWC
39	34	San Diego State	36	4	0.0027	37	5	0.0018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0015	MWC
40	32	Temple	36	4	0.0027	41	2	0.0007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0011	MAC
41	36	Maryland	39	3	0.0020	39	3	0.0011	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0010	ACC
42	43	Tulsa	42	1	0.0007	37	5	0.0018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0008	CUSA
43	26	Northwestern	40	2	0.0014	43	1	0.0004	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0006	BTen
44	27	Michigan	40	2	0.0014			0.0000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0005	BTen
45	37	Syracuse			0.0000	39	3	0.0011	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0004	East
46	NR	Notre Dame			0.0000	41	2	0.0007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0002	Ind
47	NR	Clemson			0.0000	43	1	0.0004	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0001	ACC
47	NR	Miami (OH)			0.0000	43	1	0.0004	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.0001	MAC

Keys: Pvs = Previous week; Coach = USA Today Coaches Poll; Harris = Harris Interactive Poll; AH = Anderson & Hester; CM = Colley Matrix; JS = Jeff Sagarin; KM = Kenneth Massey; PW = Peter Wolf; RB = Richard Billingsley; Cp Avg = Computer Average; Yellow indicates top team in BCS conference; Orange indicates top team in non-BCS conference.