The top of the upcoming BCS standings will appear to be unchanged, but in fact, everything has changed.
Alabama's loss to LSU - coupled with Oklahoma's loss to Texas A&M and Nebraska's close call against Iowa State - means it's highly unlikely that a one-loss team will get to the BCS title game this year. The Bayou Tigers have the best shot, but they're going to need help.
The team that's closest to an undefeated season now is TCU. After throttling previously unbeaten Utah by 40 points, the Horned Frogs only have to navigate past a dangerous San Diego State team and hapless New Mexico to finish 12-0. The Frogs' excellent computer rankings, coupled with their expected improvement in the polls, suggest that they will not fall below No. 3 in the BCS standings and that they stand a good chance to play in the BCS title game.
Boise State, on the other hand, saw its BCS title game chances continue to fade. The Broncos will fall further behind TCU in the standings, and at the moment are in danger of not even making it to a BCS bowl game.
The BCS bowl lineup, if the season ends today, should look like this:
BCS championship game: Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl: TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
The projected BCS standings:
1. Oregon, 2. Auburn, 3. TCU, 4. Boise State, 5. LSU, 6. Wisconsin, 7. Nebraska, 8. Stanford, 9. Ohio State, 10. Michigan State, 11. Oklahoma State, 12. Alabama, 13. Oklahoma, 14. Iowa, 15. Missouri.