Saturday, October 30, 2010

The 'Playoff' Starts Now

Michigan State and Missouri, two teams widely suspected as frauds, went down Saturday, clearing the way for the legitimate contenders for this year's playoff race.

Right ... there is no playoff, but the way the schedule is setting up for the next five weeks, more teams will be eliminated as we approach the final month of the college football season.

Only five unbeaten teams remain, and one will certainly go down next week as TCU visits Utah. The winner stays in the race for at least a BCS bowl berth, not to mention maybe a shot at the BCS title game. Alabama, the one-loss team best positioned to sneak into the title game picture, still has an Iron Bowl date with hated rival Auburn.

Auburn, though for now perhaps still No. 3 in the human polls, is virtually guaranteed to play in the BCS title game should it defeat 'Bama (and Georgia) and go on to win the SEC title. Though currently No. 3 in the human polls, expect the War Eagles to jump Boise State in those polls in the latter part of the season if they stay unbeaten.

Then there is Oregon, which also controls its own destiny after Saturday night's emphatic victory over a game USC team in the L.A. Coliseum. The Ducks will remain No. 1 in the polls and this week should vault past Auburn as the top team in the BCS standings. The scores will be close - mostly depending on how many voters decide to put Auburn ahead of Boise State this week - but those two teams will be well ahead of the Broncos and the rest of the pack.

This week's projected BCS standings:

1. Oregon, 2. Auburn, 3. Boise State, 4. TCU, 5. Utah, 6. Alabama, 7. Oklahoma, 8. Wisconsin, 9. Nebraska, 10. LSU, 11. Ohio State, 12. Missouri, 13. Stanford, 14. Michigan State, 15. Arizona.

31 comments:

BuckeyeNation said...

Ohio State still doesn't move up?

BCS guru, my fucking ass.....

Anonymous said...

Guru, the play off officially started in game one... thanks for ignoring Oh St which blew out a team that could win 8 games against Boise, TCU, and Utah's schedule... and of course that close game OK played against Air Force (you)must of overlooked that apparently it counts when its not Utah.. nice to see.... either way Bama wins out and jumps the fail trio and if not Aubie wins out and beats whoever... Epic FAIL GURU.. keep grasping at straws its funny !

Underdog Rally said...

@Anonymous

I'm not sure what you're complaining about... this is the Guru's projected BCS standings based on the changes he expects in the human polls and computer algorithms.

Maybe you meant to save this post for the Guru's BlogPoll ballot entry?

Wheell said...

As is the nature of the BCS, a select few teams control their own destiny. Alabama-Auburn each get an invite if they win out, as does Oregon. Apart from the Iron Bowl, Alabama goes to LSU, while Auburn should cruise unless UGA finds his bite. South Carolina seems unlikely to pose much of a threat in the SEC championship game. That goes for Florida as well.

Oregon has to face a reasonably tough Arizona squad at home, and I can't see them losing that game. That leaves Oregon St. as the single best roadblock to an Oregon-SEC Champion (Alabama) national championship game.

Get ready for the TCU-Boise St. rematch in the Fiesta (TCU-Boise St. III if you wish).

Anonymous said...

no Underdog Guru's Blog poll is a joke... it won't carry any weight in the rankings that count. Sooner or later Guru's Blog has to catch up with reality... b/t Bama and Aubie someone has to be good ? Ask yourself could Aubie or Bama line up and beat La Tech more impressively ? Guru moved Mich ST down by one and Mizzou up by 5 (last week) could either of those teams beat La Tech or even add in Air Force more impressively ? Sooner or later reality will catch... GURU got exposed ! you cant hide behind the fail trios schedule... the eyeball test does count

PeteP said...

TCU should pass Boise tomorrow in the BCS...

StephanieJoy81 said...

The Iowa Hawkeyes could kill Boise State or TCU.....

Anonymous said...

Nebraska lost by 7 to Texas, a huge conference rival. They spank M-I-Z-WHO and you have OK over them? 1. Oregon 2. Auburn 3. Someone from a competitive conference. The rest will play itself out. Boise and TCU don't need to beat stronger programs twice a year, they need that proof three or four weeks in a row! Quality opponents tax players, and neither Boise or TCU has to run the marathon. They are sprinters showing up for two games a year. Put them in a real conference and each is a two loss team by now easily. Not your fault guru, just the reality of the BCS and jaded analysts.

Anonymous said...

I'm confused why so many people would be upset with Guru...you people do realize all he is doing is projecting what he thinks the pollsters and computers will say, not what he believes, right?

Paul Michael Murphy said...

Alabama is overrated.

Wisconsin, Nebraska, LSU, OSU, MSU, and Stanford all have better resumes. All of those schools have better wins than Alabama, whose only decent victories are over a weak Florida team and an Arkansas team that would have beaten them had Mallett not shit his pants in the second half. And all of those teams lost to a better opponent than South Carolina.

Dan said...

@ Wheell um there won't be a rematch. Remember, if a Big Ten or Pac 10 school plays in the championship game, the highest rated non-AQ school (BSU,TCU, or Utah) will end up in the Rose Bowl.

Anonymous said...

Leave it to a Buckeye fan to have zero clue of what they post. The Guru is reporting what the BCS rankings will most likely look like with polls/computers, not what he thinks the rankings should be.

Besides, maybe you should beat someone other than an Ohio directional school or a WAC like Big 10 team (Minny, NW, Purdue, Indiana, etc). You have the 85th toughest schedule in the country and easier schedule than both Boise State and TCU to date AND you have a loss included in there.

Is there a more delusional fan base than tOSU? That resume doesn't even deserve to be in the top 25 let alone the top 15.

GatorMan10 said...

I'm sorry, but there is no way that Nebraska and LSU will jump Ohio State. LSU was idle this week and Nebraska's loss to Texas is looking worse and worse.

Ohio State will likely move to #9 (maybe even #8 considering how close they were to Wisconsin).

This guy may pretend he is doing "BCS analysis" but there is obviously an agenda here.

Daniel said...

Hey buckeye -
You LOST (handily) to the ONLY good team you played this year. Your schedule is littered with cup-cakes followed by twinkies & you feel you should be ranked higher?? I feel a comeback here... 'BUT WE HAVE TRADITION!!'

Anonymous said...

Auburn is the Tigers, not the War Eagles. War Eagle is, well, it's complicated...

Anonymous said...

I love it. Every year it's the same the big boys rant and rave about how Utah and Boise would get CRUSHED by them. Ask Alabama, Oklahoma how it felt to crush those teams.... Oh wait UTAH CRUSHED ALABAMA and BOISE St beat Oklahoma. Just admit it the trio is as good or better than ALMOST every Big 10 and SEC team.

JR said...

Whoever suggested that Minnesota could win 8 games against Boise, TCU, or Utah's schedule and that Ohio St should be rewarded for blowing them out needs a reality check. Didn't the Gophers lose to a I-AA/FCS school? They might flirt with .500 in the WAC, but Minnesota would get torn up in the Mountain West. That's a terrible team. That's no different than Boise St blowing out Wyoming.

Anonymous said...

Oregon has not won a big game since the Fiesta Bowl 2001 or 2002.

Boise State KILLED Oregon at the Duck Pond and in Boise in back to back years.

Boise beats Oklahoma, Oregon TWICE and TCU.

BOISE State is the best team and program in the nation

frogfanitw said...

StephanieJoy81 said "The Iowa Hawkeyes could kill Boise State or TCU....."

Maybe one of them will meet Iowa in a BCS bowl and we'll get a chance to find out.

If that doesn't work, how about coming to Fort Worth for some home cookin'. Oh you're booked up through 2029. Right.

Soleil De Minuit said...

@Boise Troll-

Boise beat Oregon two years ago BY A TOUCHDOWN, and then the next year by 11. Stop living in the past and realize that THIS YEAR is a completly different year. As an Oregon fan ill admit, yes, you guys won over us fair and square, but be real and own up to the fact that your victories over us weren't blowouts as you'd love to believe. You don't see me saying that because we beat Michigan in 2007 that we're eternally better than them.

Anonymous said...

Hey look, the Guru was right about Ohio State's placement this week in the BCS! Back in your holes, Ohio State trolls.

Hint: Miami's loss coupled with having to play Minnesota hurt your strength of schedule in the computer polls.

dethwing said...

Nice job on the projections, as usual. Surprised to see TCU over Boise?

Anonymous said...

It's simpler than you think. Nearly everyone agrees that Boise/TCU *could* compete with any of these teams for one game. Let's just say for now that everyone agrees that they could compete.

The real problem that most observers have with Boise/TCU is that they have not faced the week after week test that took down Michigan State and Alabama. If you skip the test, you get credit? Sorry, it doesn't work like that.

Does anyone have doubt that OSU, Auburn, Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma, etc. would also be awsome against that BSU schedule?

This is the sympathy argument that we had for Tulane a few years back when they were unbeaten. If Harvard was 7-0 in the Ivy League, would we argue that they have been dominant and should be in the big game? Of course not!

Yeah, we need a playoff. Since we don't have one, and we only get to choose two teams, I suggest we select them based on their wins, not their lack of losses.

Yeah, all of those teams could win a single game. They just haven't earned the right to be there.

Anonymous said...

I really wish all the *fans* that come in here leaving rants about how their team should be higher and that Samuel doesn't know what he's doing (looking at you buckeyenation) would come back and apologize on Sunday nights. This site has consistently been a great source of information and I for one appreciate the effort.

Anonymous said...

Not worried. When OSU beats Iowa in a couple weeks, history (and Iowa's drubbing of then-undefeated MSU) should jump the Buckeyes over Wisconsin and back in the driver's seat for the Rose Bowl.

Anonymous said...

Good projections. You were pretty much dead accurate for the most part as usual.
To Ohio State fans: get over yourselves, no one sees your team as a threat. Never deserved to be #1 either. Your schedule is as weak as BSU's.

To BSU fans: enough with the "BSU beat Oregon last year blah blah blah" Stanford beat Oregon last year as well, look what happened during the rematch this year. Its a different time.

Anonymous said...

What if Alabama loses to LSU -- and then Auburn loses to Bama but beats UF/SC?

Who goes then?

The Guru said...

First, thanks to all those who responded to the juveniles who couldn't refrain from profanity and didn't understand the meaning of a projection. This blog really isn't for the dense - they can always find stuff on their level at ESPN and with Craig James.

That said, @PeteP and dethwing - I was mildly surprised to see TCU pass Boise. I underestimated the defection from Boise State in the polls a bit. I guess some voters are just waiting for every excuse to drop Boise.

To the last commenter - In your scenario, that's about the only shot Boise or TCU has of getting into the title game right now.

Kurt Sahr said...

The Guru wrote: In your scenario, that's about the only shot Boise or TCU has of getting into the title game right now.

Wouldn't Oregon losing a game at any point pretty much guarantee an undefeated TCU/Utah/Boise St a shot in the NCG? Or do you think a one-loss Oklahoma, Nebraska, Ohio State, or Wisconsin would jump the non-AQ's by season's end?

Anonymous said...

It'll be interesting to see what happens to OSU with their week off. A couple teams above them have to lose, but will Missouri and/or Stanford jump them?

Anonymous said...

Here is what my 'playoff' looks like. http://jo5656.wordpress.com/

Google