Let's go first thing first, since I made the pledge to investigate last week's inaccurate projection of the No. 2 team in the BCS Standings.
Well, the findings turned out to be as simple as what the Warren Commission uncovered: A single shooter with a magic bullet. Except that it didn't require the entire weight of the federal government and thousands of pages to state the obvious.
The voters did it, basically, particularly the Harris voters. As of Week 8, Alabama was safely at No. 2, with Texas a good deal behind. But after Texas' impressive victory at Oklahoma State and with Alabama idle, there was a whopping 44-point flip in the Harris Poll, meaning nearly 20 percent of the voters switched their votes. The movement in the Coaches Poll was a bit less, but a 14-point swing still represented a 12 percent change from the previous week.
That is somewhat unprecedented. I had projected Texas to edge ahead of Alabama in the polls, but not to this degree. But I will give the voters credit. This season, they seemed more than ever willing to reconsider their ballots from week to week. And not just for the top two or three slots, but the entire top 10.
Since that's the case, I'll keep that in mind the rest of the season and do better with the projections this week.
Now, onto the most pressing question, something everyone seems to be wondering at this point: What's the BCS Bowl picture look like?
With five weeks still to go in the regular season, and seven teams still remain unbeaten, the BCS bowl picture is far from clear. But there's enough to at least take a stab at. So here it is:
BCS National Championship Game
Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas
Other contenders (in order of likelihood): Iowa, TCU, Cincinnati, LSU, Boise State, Oregon.
Comment: Florida and Alabama are on a collision course for the conference title game. If neither team stumbles, the winner of that game will be representing the SEC in the BCS title game for the fourth straight season. Texas has a clear sailing toward the Big 12 title game, as it's expected to be a double-digit favorite for all of the remaining games.
Rose Bowl
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Other contenders: Iowa, Penn State; Arizona.
Comment: Ohio State controls its own destiny. Wins over Penn State and Iowa will send the Buckeyes to Pasadena. Penn State needs to beat Ohio State and also Iowa to lose twice. Arizona, believe it or not, still controls its own destiny as well, though it has Oregon, Cal and USC on the schedule. But if the Wildcats run the table, they will be making the school's first-ever Rose Bowl appearance.
Sugar Bowl
Florida/Alabama loser vs. TCU
Other contenders: Boise State, Utah.
Comment: The Sugar Bowl has to take the SEC runner-up with the first pick, or risk losing it to the Orange Bowl. By BCS's rotation rules, it will have the last pick. So that means it'll end up with the top-ranked Coalition team, either TCU or Boise State, or even Utah, which needs to knock off TCU and a Boise State upset loss for a return trip to New Orleans.
Fiesta Bowl
USC vs. Pittsburgh/Cincinnati winner
Other contenders: Notre Dame, Big Ten runner-up, Boise State, Arizona.
Comment: If the Trojans remain unbeaten the rest of the season, expect the Fiesta to snag them with the second pick. If they lose, then a 10-2 Notre Dame team will go here. If both teams lose somewhere along the way, then the Big Ten runner-up will get the nod. If the Fiesta ends up with the Big Ten runner-up, then it might decide to use its second pick on Boise State, even if it doesn't get the Coalition automatic bid.
Orange Bowl
Iowa vs. Georgia Tech (ACC champion)
Other contenders: Penn State, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh winner; Miami.
Comment: Most likely, the Orange will use its pick to take the Big Ten runner-up to go with the ACC champion. If neither USC nor Notre Dame qualified and the Fiesta decides to take the Big Ten's runner-up, then the Orange will go ahead and grab the Big East winner. A scenario also exists for a 10-2 Miami team to claim this spot.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
11 comments:
Can TCU and Bosie State both get into the top 4?
Wouldn't this earn them both an automatic qualification by the Kansas State rules?
I think only one out of teams 3/4 can make it in based solely on ranking, utesfan100, and even then only if the team is in a BCS conference. That would certainly be a nice way to shake things up, though.
I believe this clause trumps all, meaning that only one Coalition team is guaranteed a berth, no matter what:
No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria.
What do you think the requirements would be for both TCU and BSU to get into BCS bowls? It seems more possible this year than in years passed, though perhaps still a bit of a long shot.
In yet another way the BCS discriminates against non-AQ schools, the clauses getting #3 and #4 into BCS bowls says (provisions 1-4 take care of #1 and #2 BCS, AQ conf. champions, the criteria The Guru listed about the non-AQs, and Notre Dame if it's in the top eight):
"5. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier, provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.
6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game."
In yet another way the BCS discriminates against non-AQ schools
To paraphrase Patrick Ewing, the BCS conferences earn the money because the BCS conferences spend the money.
Top graduate schools tend to take students from top universities. The biggest businesses take grads from the best business schools. Pro teams draft most of its players from the top NCAA schools.
The BCS conferences have a proven track record with at least several solid teams each year. I think they are basically considering the non-automatic qualifiers all to be one big conference, which I think is fairly reasonable considering the number of top 25 teams they historically put up.
What do you think the requirements would be for both TCU and BSU to get into BCS bowls?
There's 10 BCS spots and 14 total possible teams. So 4 teams get shut out.
Looking at the current BCS standings, if USC and Pittsburgh both lose and drop more than 3 spots, then the 4 shut out teams would be LSU and Ohio State (3rd conference teams) and Utah and Houston (non-BCS conferences).
In that case, TCU and Boise State would both get in.
why bash Iowa-they are the only bcs team that has beat 3 top 25teams?
We bash Iowa because top teams do not fall behind in nearly every game. When you have a system like this it's about actually looking good when you're winning, since 12-13 games (more like 7-8 legit games for most teams and 3-4 for teams like Boise and TCU) does not allow enough time to even things out. It's like saying a guy who won 7 coin tosses in a row is good at flipping quarters. If you take 20 above average teams (they win 70% of their games) who play 8 or 9 legit games (i.e. against schools with any realistic shot at winning) then one of them would go undefeated each year based on chance alone. Doesn't mean they are the best in the country.
We all expected that Iowa would lose, since they looked so bad winning. Falling behind in every game and making huge plays is not a sign of a great team.
two reasons why Florida wont travel out of the state to play anyone .
1.)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbJN0r6Im30&feature=player_embedded#
2.)A few years later we had a rematch .Paying off refs,.. yes this guy was let go for taking money.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zn5E2clVsGw
So if your Florida and the almighty SEC , you dont want to sign a contract with the Big ten because we even kick your tails in bowl games at your house..nough said.Oh and did i mention we handled SC last year , haha.
Post a Comment