Let's go first thing first, since I made the pledge to investigate last week's inaccurate projection of the No. 2 team in the BCS Standings.
Well, the findings turned out to be as simple as what the Warren Commission uncovered: A single shooter with a magic bullet. Except that it didn't require the entire weight of the federal government and thousands of pages to state the obvious.
The voters did it, basically, particularly the Harris voters. As of Week 8, Alabama was safely at No. 2, with Texas a good deal behind. But after Texas' impressive victory at Oklahoma State and with Alabama idle, there was a whopping 44-point flip in the Harris Poll, meaning nearly 20 percent of the voters switched their votes. The movement in the Coaches Poll was a bit less, but a 14-point swing still represented a 12 percent change from the previous week.
That is somewhat unprecedented. I had projected Texas to edge ahead of Alabama in the polls, but not to this degree. But I will give the voters credit. This season, they seemed more than ever willing to reconsider their ballots from week to week. And not just for the top two or three slots, but the entire top 10.
Since that's the case, I'll keep that in mind the rest of the season and do better with the projections this week.
Now, onto the most pressing question, something everyone seems to be wondering at this point: What's the BCS Bowl picture look like?
With five weeks still to go in the regular season, and seven teams still remain unbeaten, the BCS bowl picture is far from clear. But there's enough to at least take a stab at. So here it is:
BCS National Championship Game
Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas
Other contenders (in order of likelihood): Iowa, TCU, Cincinnati, LSU, Boise State, Oregon.
Comment: Florida and Alabama are on a collision course for the conference title game. If neither team stumbles, the winner of that game will be representing the SEC in the BCS title game for the fourth straight season. Texas has a clear sailing toward the Big 12 title game, as it's expected to be a double-digit favorite for all of the remaining games.
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Other contenders: Iowa, Penn State; Arizona.
Comment: Ohio State controls its own destiny. Wins over Penn State and Iowa will send the Buckeyes to Pasadena. Penn State needs to beat Ohio State and also Iowa to lose twice. Arizona, believe it or not, still controls its own destiny as well, though it has Oregon, Cal and USC on the schedule. But if the Wildcats run the table, they will be making the school's first-ever Rose Bowl appearance.
Florida/Alabama loser vs. TCU
Other contenders: Boise State, Utah.
Comment: The Sugar Bowl has to take the SEC runner-up with the first pick, or risk losing it to the Orange Bowl. By BCS's rotation rules, it will have the last pick. So that means it'll end up with the top-ranked Coalition team, either TCU or Boise State, or even Utah, which needs to knock off TCU and a Boise State upset loss for a return trip to New Orleans.
USC vs. Pittsburgh/Cincinnati winner
Other contenders: Notre Dame, Big Ten runner-up, Boise State, Arizona.
Comment: If the Trojans remain unbeaten the rest of the season, expect the Fiesta to snag them with the second pick. If they lose, then a 10-2 Notre Dame team will go here. If both teams lose somewhere along the way, then the Big Ten runner-up will get the nod. If the Fiesta ends up with the Big Ten runner-up, then it might decide to use its second pick on Boise State, even if it doesn't get the Coalition automatic bid.
Iowa vs. Georgia Tech (ACC champion)
Other contenders: Penn State, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh winner; Miami.
Comment: Most likely, the Orange will use its pick to take the Big Ten runner-up to go with the ACC champion. If neither USC nor Notre Dame qualified and the Fiesta decides to take the Big Ten's runner-up, then the Orange will go ahead and grab the Big East winner. A scenario also exists for a 10-2 Miami team to claim this spot.