Sunday, November 1, 2009

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 9)

The Guru's Blogpoll ballot, with notes below:

1 Texas 3
2 Alabama 1
3 Florida 1
4 Boise State 1
5 Oregon 1
6 TCU 3
7 Cincinnati 3
9 Iowa
10 Georgia Tech 1
11 Penn State 1
12 USC 5
13 Pittsburgh 3
14 Utah 1
15 Houston 1
16 Ohio State 5
17 California 3
18 Arizona 4
19 Notre Dame 5
20 Miami (Florida) 1
21 South Florida
22 Oklahoma State 7
23 Brigham Young
24 West Virginia 7
25 Oklahoma

Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Virginia Tech (#18), Central Michigan (#23), South Carolina (#25).

* My projections were a bit off this week, and I'm performing an autopsy on the carcass to see what went wrong. I'll have a post mortem report in the next day or two, but keep in mind that this ballot has nothing to do with the projections. The vote here is purely my own subjective opinion.

* Texas moves to No. 1 this week. As I have stated in the past, I'm more than willing to shuffle the ballot every week based on the overall performance of the teams. The Longhorns, over the past two weeks, have played like the best team in the nation and will, for this week, occupy the top slot.

* Meanwhile, Alabama should not be punished for being idle, as it's apparently been done in all the major polls. Yes, both Texas and Florida won impressively. But it's not like the Tide had bad week at practice (that may be the case, but you'll have to ask Nick Saban).

* The team I really want to put at No. 2 is Oregon, who's playing better than anyone with the possible exception of Texas. The Ducks did the unthinkable to USC and now own a stranglehold on the Pac-10 race. But logically there is just no way to put the one-loss Ducks over undefeated Boise State, who beat beat them head-to-head. And the Broncos are not the second-best team in the nation.

* I'm still just not buying Iowa. This may be the most contentious issue at this time, but the Hawkeyes' latest performance, to me, has more to do with luck than grit. Once in a while, you'll find a team that keeps escaping certain defeat in the most unimaginable fashion possible ... until it finally gets its comeuppance. See Hawaii, 2007.

* Notre Dame moves to No. 19. In the BCS Standings, it's at No. 22. The Irish are certainly within striking range of qualifying for BCS consideration (top 14), but they still have plenty of work to do. I will unveil the first BCS bowl forecast of the season later this week.


akble said...

Luck? Give Iowa the credit- teams make their own 'luck'- Give credit that a team has 5 interceptions yet the opposing team scores only 10 points off them- thats good defense- give credit that the line was 17.5 points- they beat it-
They have won on the road against Wisconsin and Penn State- both rated- handled Arizona with little trouble- have the second toughest SOS in the Top 20 and are 9-0-
Saturday they played with an All-American lineman out, startign PR and wide receiver out, the #3 Big Ten rusher out and DB out in the first quarter- yet beat the spread- the last time I looked a game is 60 minutes and if you outscore the opponent 28-0 in the fourth quarter they all count just liek the first three quarters points.

Dustin said...

I will just repeat my comment from last weeks Blog Poll:

"The BCS Guru likes to predict the future with is upcoming BCS standings, so let me make a little prediction of my own.

One Month from now, this will be seen on the BCS Guru's BlogPoll Ballot: Iowa #9
"Yes Iowa is 12-0, but I'm still not convinced. I mean they have only beat Penn St. Wisconsin, Mich. St., Ohio St. on the road, and Arizona, Michican at home, Lets see if they can have a tougher schedule and be undefeated for a few years in a row, then I may move them up a few spots"

Hopefully I don't have to repeat this again next week, or the week after(after winning at Ohio St.), but I most likely will.

jerry said...

so TCU wins 41-0, and you drop them three spots? that doesn't make much sense

Anonymous said...

No way to put Oregon State ahead of Boise State, since the latter beat the former two months ago?

The question answers itself. Two months ago Boise State may well have been the better team - but time passes, and I suspect Las Vegas would make the Ducks a five point (or more) favorite if they were to play again.
I don't think the Guru would take Boise State even. Unless he would, then he has no business rating the Ducks lower.

Jonathan said...

"I don't think the Guru would take Boise State even. Unless he would, then he has no business rating the Ducks lower."

While I don't disagree that it might be reasonable to put Oregon ahead of BSU (if not now, then perhaps by the end of the season), I don't think it's fair to base all rankings simply on who we think would win the next head-to-head. We have to let wins and losses in the bank count for something. So many of us want them to "settle it on the field" in the postseason; we have to let them settle it on the field during the season, too. Otherwise, why even bother with a championship game, let alone a playoff? Let's just play some games and then have Vegas crown our champion.

Anonymous said...

I believe that Oregon is a much better team right now than Boise St. but to be honest Oregon had their chance and I agree Oregon should not be ranked ahead of BSU as long as they stay undefeated.

Dustin- hahaha except I think you're getting ahead of yourself assuming Iowa will beat OSU...

mike said...

What are the rankings meant to signify? If we are ranking the best teams (not best records) then won-loss doesn't even need to be part of the equation. Sure, an undefeated team is more likely to be better than a .500 team, but this is not necessarily true. I think Oregon is probably playing like the best team in the country now (and would think so even if they had lost to Southeast Idaho State in week 1), though I don't mind ranking them lower since their big wins have come at home.

Now if you think rankings should be more like standings, then continue ranking all the undefeated teams ahead of teams that lost. I think the BCS is meant to take the place of standings, and the polls are for subjective determinations of which team is *currently better*.

Oregon lost by 11 points AT Boise. Considering home field advantage that differential may only be 4 or 5 points. And current Oregon is better than week 1-2 Oregon by much more than 5 points.

Anyway this is all probably moot, we'll see SEC #1 vs. Texas in the BCS champ (no complaints there). Boise State vs. TCU is probably what matters since I think only the higher team will get the automatic qualifier. And I'm not sure either team would be selected over USC, Notre Dame, SEC #2, or Penn State/Ohio State for the at large bids.

Jonathan said...

Good question, Mike. What ARE the rankings meant to signify? It seems like everyone knows and no one knows, and that's the problem we face.

In my opinion, rankings at the end of the season should indicate who has achieved the most during the last 12-13 games. This may or may not mean an undefeated team, as I feel that one-loss Florida last year and in '06 achieved more than the undefeated non-AQs each year. Overall, though, my criteria are still pretty slippery, and I can't help but feel that for many voters, the criteria are even more vague.

It just complicates things so much to have Oregon's single loss coming at the hands of BSU. It strikes me as kind of funny that if Oregon had lost their first game to a middle-of-the-Pac-10 team - some team that most would say isn't as good as Boise St. - many people would probably be more willing to vote them ahead of BSU.

Our brains are too small for this.

LAprGuy said...

Jonathan makes a great point.

I think the problem with the rankings is that the pollsters are glued to moving teams around based on the pre-season and previous week's polls, and not based on the relative team's strengths.

Bizarro Ocho said...

Guru -

Will you break down the race between TCU and Boise for the guaranteed spot? Seems like the other experts just deal in generalities and won't go out a ledge. I know you can't predict for sure because of the voter unknown and the win loss records of their opponents used in the formulas but anything will help.