There are enough bowl projections out there to jam up an entire server, so the Guru is not going to go there. So instead of matchups, I'm going to break down the bowl picture by placing teams in categories of possible bowl attainment.
But before we get to that, I want to make it clear that I did not come up with the "Fairness Index" nor do I endorse it. It appeared here simply to stimulate further discussion.
Not to pile on, but I will offer this simple dissenting opinion:
Using the authors' own definition, then "fairness" would be that teams with the best records (or tied for the best records) should get to play for the championship. In every sport other than Division I-A college football, since time immemorial, teams that owned or tied for the best record always had the opportunity to play for the title, no matter how many tiers of playoffs there might have been.
That's just not the case in the BCS era. See the chart below:
2008- 8 (5)
2007- 2 (1)
2004- 3 (1)
2003- 4 (1)
* Total number of teams with (or tied for) the best regular-season record that did not play in the BCS title game. BCS conference teams in parenthesis.
As you can see, in five of the last six seasons (and it's just about assured for this season as well), at least one team that finished with the best regular-season record did not get to play for the championship. Or look at it this way: only 52 percent of these teams (or 73 percent of BCS conference teams) got to play for the championship.
Doesn't seem so fair now, does it? But I digress, and onto the bowls.
There are 34 bowls and 68 slots. As of today, 32 teams have been eliminated from bowl consideration, leaving 88 teams still eligible. These 88 teams are further divided into four categories below:
BCS WORTHY (19)
Boise State *
Georgia Tech *
Ohio State +
* in contention for BCS title game
+ clinched a BCS bowl slot
BOWL QUALIFIED (25) - teams with at least 7 wins
Middle Tennessee State
BOWL ELIGIBLE (19) - Teams with 6 wins
ON THE BRINK (25)
Arizona State *
Mississippi State *
San Diego State
Western Michigan *
Florida Atlantic *
* Unlikely to become bowl eligible
With 15 of the 88 teams unlikely to gain bowl eligibility, the process boils down to 73 teams fighting for 68 spots. There is a remote, but real, possibility that there won't be enough bowl eligible teams to fill all 34 bowls. It's also unlikely that any BCS conference team with 6 wins would be kept out of the bowl season.
This list will be updated next week, as well as the BCS bowl projections below:
BCS National Championship Game - Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas
Rose Bowl - Oregon vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl - Florida/Alabama loser vs. Cincinnati/Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma State vs. TCU
Orange Bowl - Iowa vs. Georgia Tech