Saturday, January 9, 2010

Who's No. 1? Who Knows?

Let's be clear about this: The last time there was an undisputed national champion was the 2005 season, when Texas defeated USC in the epic 2006 Rose Bowl. Every season since, the legitimacy of the championship could be cast in doubt.

The 2009 season is no different.

While Alabama was the unanimous choice in both the AP and Coaches polls, a reasonable argument could be made for Boise State. TCU might be better than Texas - with or without Colt McCoy. And while the body of work of Alabama was more impressive than Boise's, who's to say that the Broncos couldn't have beaten the Tide in a one-game championship?

So here's how I voted on my final ballot, with comments below:

RankTeamDelta
1 Alabama
2 Boise State 1
3 Texas 1
4 Florida 2
5 TCU 3
6 Cincinnati 1
7 Ohio State 1
8 Iowa 1
9 Penn State 2
10 Brigham Young 2
11 Oregon 4
12 Georgia Tech 2
13 Virginia Tech
14 Utah 2
15 Wisconsin 4
16 Pittsburgh 2
17 Nebraska 7
18 Mississippi
19 LSU 5
20 USC
21 Miami (Florida) 6
22 Navy
23 Oklahoma State 3
24 Texas Tech
25 Central Michigan

Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: West Virginia (#17), Arizona (#21), Oregon State (#22), Stanford (#23).

* I voted Alabama No. 1 because absent a playoff where more than two teams get a chance to determine the championship, one must consider the respective resumes of the only two undefeated teams. The Tide's best wins were over Texas (without McCoy), Florida and Virginia Tech. The Broncos beat TCU, Oregon and ... not much else. Not their fault, but the schedule does matter.

* The idiocy (or sheer malice) of some of the AP and coaches voters must be exposed. Craig James (yeah, that Craig James, he's a Dad!) had Boise State No. 7, behind two-loss teams Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa ... yes, he also had Penn State in front of Iowa, which actually defeated the Lions head-to-head. Worse yet, he had TCU at No. 14. His slots for Boise and TCU were by far the lowest of any voters in the AP poll. A ballot that produced such outliers should be tossed out for its irregularity. As it is, he single-handedly cost Boise the No. 3 ranking, as the Broncos finished four points behind Florida.

* Over in the coaches poll, which has yet to make available how the individual coaches voted on their final ballot, we do know that former Akron coach J.D. Brookhart has mailed it in ... or not mailed, faxed, or emailed in anything. He didn't bother submitting a final ballot after getting canned.

* My ballot follows a very simple logic. The teams are ranked by their records and resume. In cases where teams have identical records, the team that either won head-to-head or had a better resume is ranked ahead. Teams that lost their bowl games, particularly ones abandoned by their head coaches (i.e. Cincinnati), are not unduly punished as they were in the other polls.

* Every BCS conference team with no more than four losses is ranked, except West Virginia and Rutgers, who just missed the cut. Every non-BCS team with no more than two losses is also on the ballot. One exception is made for Navy, and it absolutely earned its place on the ballot. The Midshipmen played six bowl teams on their schedule and demolished Missouri in their own bowl game. Besides, they have our eternal gratitude for driving Charlie Weis out of college football, perhaps forever.

* So who would win in a championship game between Alabama and Boise State? The Tide would be favored, on paper. But Boise State's postseason history must give one pause before dismissing the Broncos entirely. Unfortunately, we'll just never know. The BCS crystal ball has been packed and shipped. It will be on Isle 6 at a Walmart near you, if you live in Tuscaloosa, that is.

Friday, January 1, 2010

Big Ten's Grand Revenge Tour

The Big Ten. Slow. Conservative. Bad.

Uh. Check that.

Make that. Fast enough. Aggressively enough. Not half bad.

So just what happened? Last year, the Big Ten went 1-6 in bowl games and, after Ohio State's back-to-back drubbing in the BCS national championship games the previous two seasons, the conference was officially written off as an anachronism.

But the 2009 bowl season is bringing a Big Ten renaissance. The conference is 3-2, having won the Rose Bowl and lost a 1-point game and in overtime. Two more teams have yet to play, with Iowa in another BCS game against Georgia Tech, in the Orange Bowl.

(Check out the Guru's Bowl Chart, breaking down how the conferences are doing against each other.)

Ohio State's win over Oregon in the Rose Bowl should really not be that surprising. The Buckeyes have made up ground on the BCS elite in the past two years. They lost a heartbreaker to Texas in the Fiesta Bowl last year and nearly defeated USC (when the Trojans were actually good) earlier this season. They came out with the perfect game plan to throttle the over-confident Ducks, who managed just 17 points.

The "fact" that the Pac-10 has dominated the Rose Bowl is really misstated. The reality is that USC has dominated the Rose Bowl, and the rest of the Pac-10 anything but. Since Washington won back-to-back in '90 and '91, USC is 5-1 in the Rose Bowl (the loss was to Texas, of course) and the rest of the Pac-10 is 1-9.

The Big Ten couldn't handle the Trojans, but they do just fine against everybody else. Somebody forgot to mention this to the Ducks, who thought they'd just show up and collect the trophy.

Playing in the mud in Orlando, Penn State took care of LSU, the third-best team in the SEC. Northwestern nearly knocked off Auburn, who gave top-ranked Alabama fits. And perennially too-slow, too-plodding Wisconsin (yeah, I said that), just ran roughshod over Miami, also in not-so-warm Orlando.

By the way, I have no problem with Pat Fitzgerald's decision to run that fake field goal to try to win the game in the Outback Bowl. His kicker was hurt. The scheme was good. The only problem was maybe the "fumblerooski" developed too quickly. To carry this one out, the guy with the ball usually needs to count to three before moving, to better create an over-pursue by the defense.

While the Big Ten is doing well enough, it's not going to outdo the Mountain West, which has clinched the Bowl Challenge Cup (its third in six seasons), with only TCU's Fiesta Bowl date with Boise State remaining. The conference that has egg on its face is the one that won the Bowl Challenge Cup last season with a 5-0 record.

The Pac-10 has been absolutely abysmal in this bowl season, wrapped up with Oregon's loss in Pasadena. It went 2-5, with only USC's lackluster win over Boston College and UCLA's comeback against Temple to show for it. Arizona and Oregon State, who tied for second in the conference, were utterly embarrassed.

So all that stuff about the Pac-10 being the best conference from top-to-bottom in 2009 ... uh, I will get back to you on that one.
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