Bowl Extravaganza

Call the Guru a glutton for punishment.

Two years ago, I handicapped all 32 bowl games ... and let's just say I was as successful as the French army was in May 1940. It was so bad that I didn't even bother tallying the damage.

But since time heals all wounds, I'm diving into the muddled waters of bowl predictions again. So here are my picks, along with a nugget or two, on the 34 bowl games this season, listed in chronological order:

New Mexico - Fresno State over Wyoming.

St. Petersburg - I thought Rutgers was a fraud all season long. Not changing that view here, going with Central Florida.

New Orleans - Middle Tennessee over Southern Miss.

Las Vegas - Oregon State deserves so much better than this. Take the Beavers over BYU.

Poinsettia - Utah gets one back for the Mountain West, over Jahvid Best-less Cal.

Hawaii - SMU's June Jones makes a triumphant return to the islands, but Nevada wins over his Mustangs.

Little Caesars - Marshall over Ohio.

Meineke Car Care - Pitt loses three in a row to end the season, this one goes to North Carolina.

Emerald - Will USC get up for this game? Barely, but that's enough to beat Boston College.

Music City - Clemson over Kentucky.

Independence - Texas A&M, riding the hot arm of Jerrod Johnson, gets enough offense to beat Georgia.

EagleBank - UCLA needed Army to lose to get a bowl bid, and makes the most of it by beating Temple.

Champs Sports - Miami has too much speed for plodding Wisconsin, another vastly overrated team from the Big Ten/11 soon to be 12.

Humanitarian - Idaho over Bowling Green.

Holiday - This could've been the Stoops Bowl, but Bob couldn't make it. So Mike's Arizona takes it out on Nebraska.

Armed Forces - Houston's high-octane offense grounds Air Force.

Sun - The most interesting non-BCS bowl game in the lot. Stanford in a tight one, thanks to over 200 rushing yards by Toby Gerhart, over Oklahoma.

Texas - Navy votes nay on Missouri going to the Big Ten/11 soon to be 12.

Insight - Minnesota over Iowa State.

Chick-fil-A - Without hostesses as a distraction, Tennessee still comes up short against Virginia Tech.

Outback - Northwestern has been sneaky good this year. The Wildcats surprise Auburn.

Capital One - JoePa's tam has not beaten anybody of substance this season. Penn State isn't about to start now against LSU.

Gator - In Bobby Bowden's farewell, featuring the two Division I-A teams he coached, West Virginia spoils it by denying him a final victory at Florida State.

Rose - Oregon has just too much speed for Ohio State.

Sugar - Think Florida isn't going to show up to play this game? You must not have heard of this guy named Tim Tebow. He's not going to lose his final college game to Cincinnati.

International - In turmoil, South Florida still beats Northern Illinois.

PapaJohns.com - South Carolina over UConn.

Cotton - In the first Cotton Bowl played at Cowboys Stadium, Ole Miss beats Oklahoma State as Jerry Jones gets ready to make a pitch to be part of the BCS.

Liberty - Ryan Mallett has a field day as Arkansas routs East Carolina.

Alamo - Texas Tech over Michigan State.

Fiesta - In the "People's Championship," viewed by the smallest TV audience in BCS history, TCU gets by Boise State to finish an undefeated season.

Orange - Georgia Tech runs wild against a perplexed Iowa team.

GMAC - Troy over Cincinnati's farm school, er, Central Michigan.

BCS National Championship - Alabama returns to the top of college football world, routs Texas to win its first national title since 1992.

Toby Gerhart for Heisman

I'm not a Heisman voter and have no intention to ever become one. For what it's worth, I think it is possibly the most overrated trophy in all of sports.

But I've been asked to cast a blogger vote - similar to my weekly ballots in the BlogPoll - for the Heisman this year by the Blue Work Horse. So I'll bite. And there is actually a reason for me to care this year. I feel very strongly that Stanford's Toby Gerhart should win the Heisman.

Let's get this first part out of the way. Gerhart went to Norco High School, which happens to be my alma mater (Class of '87). And his daddy is the Cougars' football coach. Yes, I have to admit, it'd be kind of cool.

But Gerhart deserves the trophy, and my admiration, for much more than that. If you're still clinging to the myth of the "student-athlete" in big-time college sports, then he's your Atlas. Besides gashing Oregon and USC on the field, he also carries a mean GPA - not in kinesiology or general studies - but a 3.25 in management science and engineering. At Stanford, where its motto is Die Luft der Freiheit weht.

If you want numbers, Gerhart has those, too. He leads the nation in rushing yards (1,736) and touchdowns (26), and did that against stout competition. In Stanford's five games against the nation's top 40 rush defenses, he averaged 140 yards and three touchdowns per game. (In contrast, Alabama's Mark Ingram played just one game - Florida - against a top 40 rush defense team.)

But will he become the first Heisman winner from Stanford since Jim Plunkett (1970) or the first non-USC player from west of the Rockies since Ty Detmer (1990)? Don't count on it. The SEC media machine has all but locked it up for Ingram after his 30-yard performance against Auburn was quickly erased from the voters' memory (think Minority Report).

So in a bit of exercise in futility, here's my Heisman ballot:

No. 1 Toby Gerhart (RB, Stanford) - Without him, Stanford wouldn't be tied for second in the Pac-10 and playing in the Sun Bowl. He had 10 100-yard games and 3 200-yard games. And he's carrying 20 units and on course to graduate in December. He's a beast.

No. 2 Jeremiah Masoli (QB, Oregon) - The Ducks bounced back from the opening game disaster to win the conference, thanks to Masoli's brilliant consistency. Over 2,000 yard passing, 650 yards rushing and 27 touchdowns.

No. 3 Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska) - Probably the most dominant interior defensive lineman in a generation. Who knows what Nebraska could've gone if it just had a little bit of offense.

Honorable mention - Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama), Case Keenum (QB, Houston).

Boise Is In, But BCS Still Flawed

The following is a guest column written by the co-founder of Playoff PAC. This article also appeared in RealClearSports.

By Matthew Sanderson

The college football world received good news Sunday night. Deserving and undefeated teams from Boise State and TCU received bowl invitations from the Bowl Championship Series. This will be the first post-season in BCS history that two teams from the five non-automatic qualifying conferences will receive BCS bowl berths in the same year. TCU automatically qualified for the invitation under BCS rules, while Boise State received an "at-large" invitation - a first for a "non-AQ" conference team.

These bowl invitations are a positive development, to be sure. But the BCS' new PR mercenaries, led by former Bush White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer, are certain to over-inflate their importance. Even before yesterday's selection, they've compared the BCS to apple pie, motherhood, and the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Wonder what they'll come up with now.

BCS officials will undoubtedly claim that the Broncos' bid, in particular, is proof positive that the door of opportunity is wide open to "non-AQ" schools under the BCS system. We need only look at the circumstances surrounding Boise State's invitation, though, to realize this is not true.

For the BCS to even consider extending this at-large berth, Boise State had to run up two consecutive undefeated regular seasons and manhandle this year's Pac-10 champion, the Oregon Ducks, along the way.

Yet Boise State still would not have received an invitation if any of the "Big Six" conference teams had a remotely credible claim to a big-time bowl. Because BCS rules bar any single conference from garnering more than one at-large bid and because SEC and Big Ten teams had already locked in the first two at-large spots, Boise State's competition for the final at-large BCS berth came from the ACC, Big 12, Big East, and Pac-10. Teams from those conferences - Oklahoma State, USC, Pittsburgh, Clemson, and others - were in the driver's seat but somehow couldn't close out the season successfully.

This left an enormous rankings gap of .2769 points between Boise State and the next eligible team, three-loss Virginia Tech. Selecting the three-loss Hokies over undefeated Boise State would have ignited the greatest uproar in BCS history and destroyed any remaining shreds of legitimacy. The BCS didn't select Boise State because they've turned over a new leaf. They begrudgingly extended the at-large invite because they had a gun to their head.

And after all that, the BCS issued a tainted invitation by making Boise State and fellow "non-AQ" team TCU face off against each other in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 4. One sportswriter is calling this "Separate But Equal Bowl" because it denies both teams an opportunity to prove their mettle against "Big Six" conference teams and allows the BCS to continue to rationalize its caste system by claiming a disparity in quality of play.

In addition, the BCS did nothing to address the system's greatest defects by selecting Boise State for an at-large spot. For example, the ACC will receive approximately $18.3 million from the BCS this post-season. For accomplishing the same feat - placing one team in a BCS bowl - the Mountain West Conference must divide $9.6 million among its fellow five "non-AQ" conferences. Forcing these teams to live off of table scraps is not good for college football's long-term health. Unfortunately, Boise State's historic at-large berth doesn't mean the BCS has changed its anti-competitive revenue distribution system.

Boise State's momentary inclusion also does not mean the BCS is suddenly a great way to choose a champion. Undefeated Cincinnati beat three teams ranked in the final AP Top 25 poll, while Texas defeated only two. Why exactly, then, is Texas "in" and Cincinnati "out" when the teams played in conferences of similar strength? Boise State and TCU have gripes similar to Cincinnati. Something is fundamentally wrong with a system that pointlessly rations championship opportunities and leaves three undefeated teams at home to watch the title game. The lesser BCS bowls are a poor consolation prize, even if they are a step up from the norm for these teams.

A single at-large bid for a "non-AQ" team cannot erase 11 years of scandal and controversy or cover up the system's inherent flaws. The status quo's warts remain. We need real reform in college football. Let's stop running this game needlessly on two cylinders and start a playoff.

======================
Matthew Sanderson is a co-founder of Playoff PAC (www.PlayoffPAC.com) and an attorney at Caplin & Drysdale, Chartered in Washington, D.C. He served as Campaign Finance Counsel to John McCain 2008, Senator John McCain's presidential campaign committee. {These view are his own.}

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 14)

The Guru's final regular season BlogPoll ballot, with comments below:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama	1
2	TCU	1
3	Boise State	2
4	Texas
5	Cincinnati	1
6	Florida	3
7	Oregon
8	Ohio State
9	Iowa
10	Georgia Tech	2
11	Penn State	1
12	Brigham Young	1
13	Virginia Tech	5
14	LSU	1
15	Miami (Florida)	4
16	Utah	4
17	West Virginia	6
18	Pittsburgh	5
19	Wisconsin
20	Oklahoma State	4
21	Arizona
22	Oregon State	5
23	Stanford
24	Nebraska	2
25	Central Michigan
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Houston (#14), USC (#16), California (#21).

* Alabama was impressive in the SEC championship victory over Florida, but it must be viewed with at least this much skepticism: The Gators may just be grossly overrated. They have played just one team ranked in the top 25 all season, and I won't continue to belabor the point about their nonconference schedule.

* That said, Alabama and TCU are clearly the two best teams in the country. TCU is the only team ranked in the top 10 in both total offense (No. 4) and total defense (No. 1). Alabama has beaten three teams ranked in the top 25, and has played the toughest schedule among the unbeatens. These two teams really should've been playing for the national championship.

* Let's allow the resumes tell the story:

1. Alabama (13-0)- Beat No. 6 Florida, No. 13 Virginia Tech, No. 14 LSU.
2. TCU (12-0)- Beat No. 12 BYU, No. 16 Utah.
3. Boise State (13-0)- Beat No. 7 Oregon.
4. Texas (13-0)- Beat No. 20 Oklahoma State, No. 24 Nebraska.
5. Cincinnati (12-0)- Beat No. 17 West Virginia, No. 18 Pittsburgh, No. 22 Oregon State.
6. Florida (12-1)- Beat No. 14 LSU. Lost to No. 1 Alabama.
7. Oregon (10-2)- Beat No. 16 Utah, No. 21 Arizona, No. 22 Oregon State. Lost to No. 3 Boise State, No. 23 Stanford.
8. Ohio State (10-2)- Beat No. 9 Iowa, No. 11 Penn State, No. 19 Wisconsin. Lost to USC, Purdue.
9. Iowa (10-2)- Beat No. 11 Penn State, No. 19 Wisconsin, No. 21 Arizona. Lost to No. 8 Ohio State, Northwestern.
10. Georgia Tech (11-2)- Beat No. 13 Virginia Tech. Lost to No. 15 Miami, Georgia.
    
11. Penn State (10-2)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 8 Ohio State, No. 10 Iowa.
12. BYU (10-2)- Beat No. 16 Utah. Lost to No. 2 TCU, Florida State.
13. Virginia Tech (9-3)- Beat No. 15 Miami, No. 24 Nebraska. Lost to No. 1 Alabama, No. 10 Georgia Tech, North Carolina.
14. LSU (9-3)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 1 Alabama, No. 6 Florida, Ole Miss.
    
15. Miami (Fla.) (9-3)- Beat No. 10 Georgia Tech. Lost to No. 13 Virginia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina.
    
16. Utah (9-3)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 2 TCU, No. 7 Oregon, No. 12 BYU.
    
17. West Virginia (9-3)- Beat No. 18 Pittsburgh. Lost to No. 5 Cincinnati, Auburn, South Florida.
    
18. Pittsburgh (9-3)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 5 Cincinnati, No. 17 West Virginia, N.C. State.
19. Wisconsin (9-3)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 8 Ohio State, No. 9 Iowa, Northwestern.
20. Oklahoma State (9-3)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 4 Texas, Houston, Oklahoma.
    
21. Arizona (8-4)- Beat No. 22 Oregon State, No. 23 Stanford, No. 25 Central Michigan. Lost to No. 7 Oregon, No. 9 Iowa, California, Washington.
    
22. Oregon State (8-4)- Beat No. 23 Stanford. Lost to No. 5 Cincinnati, No. 7 Oregon, No. 21 Arizona, USC.
    
23. Stanford (8-4)- Beat No. 7 Oregon. Lost to No. 21 Arizona, No. 22 Oregon State, California, Wake Forest.
    
24. Nebraska (9-4)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 4 Texas, No. 13 Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Iowa State.
    
25. Central Michigan (11-2)- Beat no ranked teams. Lost to No. 21 Arizona, Boston College.
    

Humanitarian or Bust

Listen to the Guru's Podcast with Jay Christensen of The Wiz of Odds.




UCLA and Notre Dame are rivals. Maybe not so much on the gridiron, but there was a day that these two schools competed fiercely in basketball. After all, it was Digger Phelps' Fighting Irish who ended the Bruins' historic 88-game winning streak in 1974.

But today, UCLA should send a thank-you note to South Bend. For it was Notre Dame's decision to sit out the bowl games that opened the door for the Bruins to extend their season.

As of Friday, UCLA looked to be the odd team out: The only BCS conference school that's bowl eligible but unable to find a spot to play anywhere. The Pac-10, once again, had eggs on its face, with its inability to get more attractive bowl matchups for its conference teams, never mind enough of them to place all bowl eligible teams.

Take a look at the conference tie-in table here:

SEC - 8 (12 member schools)
ACC - 8 (12)
Big 12 - 7 (12)
Big Ten - 6 (11)
Big East - 5 (8)
Mountain West - 5 (9)
Pac-10 - 5 (10)
Conference USA - 5 (12)
WAC - 3 (9)
MAC - 3 (13)
Sun Belt - 1 (9)
Army/Navy - 2 (2)

As you can see, the Pac-10 has by far the worst bowl tie-in ratio among BCS conferences, and it's even worse than the one that Mountain West has. In addition, with the Pac-10 perennially left out of the at-large pool for BCS bowls and its weak bowl affiliations, its member schools suffer in terms of postseason revenue as well.

Without Notre Dame bowing out of the bowl picture, the epithet of this UCLA season would've been Pete Carroll's decision to dial up a bomb in a 28-7 USC victory after Rick Neuheisel refused to accept the Trojans' offer of truce. Now, at least the Bruins get to frolic on Boise's blue turf, leaving the Little Caesars Bowl with potentially two MAC teams.

Pizza, Pizza.

UPDATE: UCLA decided to take the risk of waiting for the Army-Navy game, accepting a conditional bid to the EagleBank Bowl in Washington, D.C., and eschewing the Humanitarian Bowl. If Navy wins, the Bruins will play Temple. If Army wins, the Bruins will stay home. Little Caesars Bowl ends up with an almost all-MAC bowl, with Marshall, a former MAC member, facing Ohio.

Here's one final look at the bowl picture before tonight's selection show. With 68 teams slated to play in 34 bowl games, there are 71 eligible teams with one game still remaining (Army vs. Navy):

BCS BOUND (10)
Alabama (SEC)
Texas (Big 12)
Cincinnati (Big East)
TCU (non-BCS automatic)
Oregon (Pac-10)
Ohio State (Big Ten)
Georgia Tech (ACC)
Boise State (at-large)
Florida (at-large)
Iowa or Penn State (at-large)

BOWL QUALIFIED (50) - teams with at least 7 wins
Clemson
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Boston College
Miami (Fla.)
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Rutgers
Connecticut
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Nebraska
Missouri
Texas Tech
Penn State or Iowa
Wisconsin
Northwestern
USC
Oregon State
Arizona
Stanford
California
LSU
South Carolina
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Auburn
Kentucky
Tennessee
Georgia
BYU
Utah
Air Force
Nevada
Idaho
Fresno State
Houston
Central Florida
Southern Miss
East Carolina
SMU
Navy
Temple
Ohio
Central Michigan
Northern Illinois
Bowling Green
Troy
Middle Tennessee State

BOWL ELIGIBLE (11) - Teams with 6 wins
Florida State
Iowa State
Texas A&M
Michigan State
Minnesota
Notre Dame +
UCLA *
Wyoming
Marshall
Louisiana-Monroe ^
Louisiana-Lafayette ^

+ Opted not to participate in the postseason
^ Will not receive bowl bids

ON THE BRINK (1)
Army *

* If Army defeats Navy on Saturday, the Black Knights will play in the EagleBank Bowl, replacing UCLA.

'Bama-Texas, Ho-Hum

A dropped hold on a PAT. An errant kickoff out of bounds.

Two plays, they're all that kept a non-BCS team from crashing the BCS title game party for the first time.

But it wasn't to be. Pittsburgh's dropped PAT attempt allowed Cincinnati to escape with a 45-44 victory. Hours later, Texas squeezed by Nebraska with a 13-12 victory, in large part thanks to the kickoff that went out of bounds following the Huskers' go-ahead field goal.

So the BCS conferences can breathe a sigh of relief. Alabama will face Texas in Pasadena for the BCS national championship. TCU, Boise State and Big East's Cincinnati will be left to fight over the scraps.

For what it's worth, the Bearcats will edge the Horned Frogs for the third spot. And had Hunter Lawrence missed his 46-yard field goal as time expired, Cincinnati would've been the team in Pasadena.

Boise State, on the other hand, should be sending some roses to Mr. Lawrence. Texas' victory just about assured the Broncos' safe passage to their second BCS bowl appearance in four years.

The BCS bowl matchups:

BCS national championship game: Alabama vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: TCU vs. Georgia Tech
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State

Projected Final BCS Standings: 1. Alabama (expected to score a perfect 1.000 in the BCS ratings), 2. Texas, 3. Cincinnati, 4. TCU, 5. Boise State, 6. Florida, 7. Oregon, 8. Ohio State, 9. Iowa, 10. Georgia Tech, 11. Penn State, 12. Virginia Tech, 13. LSU, 14. BYU, 15. Miami (Fla.).