Saturday, November 8, 2008

Thank You, Hawkeyes!

There was rejoicing, from sea to shining sea, when Iowa's Daniel Murray booted a 31-yard field goal to beat Penn State, 24-23. The upset loss ended the Nittany Lions' bid for the BCS championship, as well as the Big Ten's hopes of appearing in the BCS title game for a third straight year.

Penn State's loss paves the way for an SEC-Big 12 title game. The way things are set up now, the winner of the Florida-Alabama SEC championship game should play whomever emerges victorious from the vicious Big 12 South. Texas Tech remains unbeaten, while both Texas and Oklahoma are still alive as each has one loss.

The odd team out continues to be USC. The Trojans may boast perhaps the nation's finest defense in this decade, but they might have to be content playing in the Rose Bowl against Penn State. USC probably will need an upset loss by the Big 12 South winner in the conference title game - or a loss by either Alabama or Florida before they meet in Atlanta for the SEC title.

So who'll be No. 1 this week? It looks like it'll still be Alabama, even if Texas Tech has amassed a more impressive resume at this point. But voters typically are reluctant to replace the top-ranked team without it losing, and since both teams will have similar computer rankings, what the voters want, the voters get.

Of course, who's No. 1 or No. 2 at this point means very little. There are still four weekends left in this college football season, and six teams still have a chance to play for the BCS title. And oh yeah, here's the parting shot: There is definitely a scenario out there for another split national championship. But we'll discuss that a bit later.

The Guru's projected BCS standings for Week 11:

1. Alabama, 2. Texas Tech, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. Oklahoma, 6. Penn State, 7. USC, 8. Utah, 9. Ohio State, 10. Boise State, 11. Oklahoma State, 12. Georgia, 13. Missouri, 14. Michigan State, 15. Brigham Young.


Ohio State fanatic said...

Eager to hear about your split championship theory. I hope that we have six 1 loss teams when the dust settles...that would potentially blow up the BCS paving the way for Obama's eight game playoff.

I think Texas Tech will lose to Oklahoma and Alabama will stumble in the Iron Bowl (they have lost six in a row)...maybe it is just wishful thinking, but with the exception of Oklahoma, I don't see any true juggernauts out there...well maybe Florida. A Texas Tech/Oklahoma vs. Florida matchup would be great...

Mars said...

1. Alabama, 2. Texas Tech, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. Oklahoma, 6. Penn State, 7. USC, 8. Utah, 9. Ohio State, 10. Boise State, 11. Oklahoma State, 12. Georgia, 13. Missouri, 14. Michigan State, 15. Brigham Young...

Utah doesn't have a chance to jump Penn State?

Ohio State jumps Boise State?

Oklahoma State stays above Georgia?

Michigan State jumps BYU?

Anonymous said...

I hope those projections are a joke.If a loss against a 6-4 team doesn't drop the Nittany Lions lowere than 6th there is something unbelievably wrong with the pollsters. USC's one loss came against a 5-3 team with 2 losses to highly ranked teams, Utah and the aformentioned Nittany Lions. A 1 loss USC is better than 1 loss Penn St and the ranking beter reflect that tomorrow or they are a load of bull. Penn State has to drop more than 3 positions losing to an unranked team.

Anonymous said...

Uhhh... Oregon State wins out and they, not USC, go to the Rose Bowl (even if USC is ranked higher).

1. TX Tech.
2. Alabama
3. USC
4. Florida
5. Texas
6. Oklahoma
7. Penn State
8. Utah
9. Ohio State
10. Boise State.

bevo said...

If the Big 12 South Division ends in a 3 way tie or if Tech wins the Division but loses the championship game, then can Texas make it into the MNC game?

Nebraska pulled this stunt in 2001, IIRC. They lost to CU, which cost them a shot at the Big 12 title game, but still played in the MNC game.

Does USC have any chance of making the MNC game?

BTW, Alabama will lose to a Florida, who will lose to Florida St.

Anonymous said...

If the North wins the Big 12 Championship, then all the Big 12 South teams will be fighting for an At-Large Birth to the BCS Party (which means no National Championship for any of them.)

At this point, the East Coast-biased National Media has all but decided that the National Championship game will be between the SEC Champ and the Big 12 Champ.
Baring upsets in (or leading up to)those two games, USC has about the same chance of convincing the Nat'l Media they should be playing for a National Title as John McCain did of getting them to say something good about him.

I'm guessing its the Fiesta Bowl for the "Rodney Dangerfield" Trojans (probably against one of those one loss Big 12 South teams)

Anonymous said...

Florida should jump Texas this week... their win was more impressive. They beat 5-3 Vandy at Vandy by 28; while Texas beat 3-6 Baylor at home by 24.

Anonymous said...

Sports writers Grow a Pair and Practice what you Preach Defense wins Championships well...USC has the best Defense in the Nation so why rank them Lower than the other 1 loss teams?...USC will beat any of the other teams ahead of them. We all know it. If you picked a 2 loss team to play for the national championship. Pick 1 loss teams to play USC and Florida. Make the right call and have the right team USC play in the Championship.

guru2 said...

AMEN and Hallelujah!! The Nittany (Paper) Lions are dead!
Now we may actually get the SEC-Big12 NC Game we deserve as fans. Certainly NOT as good as a playoff, but good enough for now. Pool A is Alabama/Florida. Pool B is TTech/Okla/Texas. And USC-Penn St should make for a pretty good Rose Bowl as well.

What Da Freak Author said...

penn state ahead of USC. Yeah....good luck with that. Guru my ass.

Anonymous said...

Guru, Assuming my Gators win out...If Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, then Texas loses to Mizzou in the Big 12 Championship game and Oregon St wins the Pac-10, who plays UF for the NC???

Would it be a 1 loss Oklahoma (who didn't win the Big 12), a 1 loss USC who didn't win the Pac-10), a 1 loss Penn St. (who plays in an absolutely awful conference), or an undefeated Utah who at least wins its own conference championship?

Not that any of this is gonna happen (except the UF winning out part)...but, I just like to throw out possibilities.

Anonymous said...

yeah guru glad you were wrong about the psu, Utah, and USC order. I think regular non-gurus could have figured that out. Anonymous above me USC would be co-pac-10-champs with Oregon St. in that scenario. If it goes down like that I think the powers that be would make it a UF and Texas BCS title game.

SteveHolt8472 said...


That is indeed an interesting question regarding the Big XII. However, given that OU is a mere 0.0354 points behind Texas in the BCS standings, it is much more likely that subsequent wins over Texas Tech and OSU will propel Oklahoma past Texas in the rankings. It would then be an OU-Mizzou Big XII championship game. And after all the conference championship games, Texas would be no lower than 3 in the BCS. They would be 2 if Missouri beats OU. It would take a dramatic and deliberate shift by the voters in the coaches poll and the Harris poll to put USC ahead of Texas.

notabamafan said...

Guru, I am very interested in possible scenarios where 2 teams could play in the NCG without winning thier own conference title.

Could the following scenario happen?

*OU over Tech - OU to #2, Tech to #5

*FSU over UF - UF to #9

*UF over Alabama - Bama to #3

*Mizzou over OU - Bama to #2

#1 Texas vs #2 Alabama

USC #3, Texas Tech #4, Utah #5, PSU #6, Boise #7, UF #8, OU #9, Mizzou #10

I'm just curious how far a Alabama would fall if they lost a close game to UF on a neutral field. Obviously USC would have a case, but would be hurt if OSU wins the PAC-10.

I know its crazy talk at this point. But that why I love this site

The Guru said...


If your scenario plays out, then USC will be in the BCS title game. There's a chance that a non-champion Big 12 team may be in the title game but not so for the SEC.

USC, even if it doesn't get the automatic bid to the Rose Bowl, is still a co-champion, since the Pac-10 does not have a title game. A one-loss Alabama will for sure fall behind a one-loss USC.