Saturday, November 22, 2008

Tech Bubble Burst Roils BCS Market

Well, the BCS may have a crisis that mirrors the one in the real world.

It was so easy last week that the Guru just knew there will be ample payback this time. If the caveman could do the projections last week, then this week's would require the combined brain power of Albert Einstein, Werner von Braun and Stephen Hawking, not to mention the psychoanalytic mind of Freud. This might be a bit out of the realm for a chump like me.

But I'll try anyway.

First thing first, we know two things for sure: Penn State is headed to the Rose Bowl, becoming the first team to clinch a BCS berth this season. Utah followed suit by completing a 12-0 season, becoming the first non-BCS team to win multiple BCS bowl berths.

The rest is up in the air.

Oklahoma's 65-21 annihilation of No. 2 Texas Tech sets up a near certainty of the BCS standings being employed to break a three-way tie in the Big 12 South - OU still must win at Oklahoma State next week, though. If the Sooners stumble, then the Red Raiders win the Big 12 South if they can handle Baylor at home.

Take a deep breath and follow this one here: Texas can't win the Big 12 South on anything but the tiebreaker, and Oklahoma's blowout win made that a little more difficult. If the Longhorns don't get to play in the Big 12 title game, they still may play in the BCS title game. And even if they don't play in the BCS title game, they can still win the national championship - by winning the Fiesta Bowl and claiming the AP crown.

The door is left slightly ajar for USC as well - ironically because Oregon State may keep the Trojans out of the Rose Bowl. If they end up playing Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, there is a chance for the Trojans to win the AP title - that chance doesn't exist if they face Penn State in Pasadena. In any event, there is virtually no chance for USC to play in the BCS championship game.

Alabama will remain No. 1 in the BCS standings, without a doubt. After the Tide, I expect Oklahoma to narrowly edge Texas for the No. 2 spot this week. The voters will be very torn about where to place the 'Horns and Sooners, even though Texas did defeat Oklahoma on a neutral field back in October. The 65 points OU hung on Texas Tech would be difficult to ignore as well.

Adding to the intrigue is that Texas coach Mack Brown has a vote in the coaches poll but OU coach Bob Stoops does not. The coaches do not have to reveal their ballots until the final regular-season poll, meaning that whatever Brown puts on his ballot will affect the tiebreaker - and it will stay a secret as well.

Here's the Guru's projections for the Week 13 BCS standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Texas Tech, 8. Penn State, 9. Boise State, 10. Ohio State, 11. Georgia, 12. Oklahoma State, 13. Missouri, 14. Texas Christian, 15. Cincinnati.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

USC doesn't have a chance?? Is it completely out of the question to see Florida State beat Florida and then see the Gators beat Alabama...Lots of possibilities guru.

SteveHolt8472 said...

Guru,

Something else to consider. Texas' strength of schedule took a hit today, as their previous oppenents went 1-4 on the day: UTEP, Florida Atlantic, Arkansas, and Texas Tech all lost; only Rice won. ...Need I mention that #16 TCU and #19 Cincinnati both won.

Anonymous said...

One slight correction. Texas could still win the Big 12 South IF Tech feels so sorry for themselves that they forget to show up and beat Baylor. So, its still not over until all the games are played.

Anonymous said...

texas has no chance at the big 12 outside of a tie-breaker?

you're so clueless on this that you can't be taken seriously on any other point.

Anonymous said...

youre no guru, no guru at all.

mwcfootball said...

What does Utah have to do to climb ahead of USC. They defeated a common opponent in Oregon State who is on track to win the Pac 10.

Also Utah has more quality wins with 2 wins over top 15 opponents at the time and those two are still in the top 20, and they beat Air Force who is going to have 9 wins and flirted with the top 25 most of the year.

USC beat Oregon who is still in the top 25 and Ohio State who is now 10.

Their Cal win is not so great any more as they are out of the top 25.

The MWC has better quality and what will it take for Utah to jump USC, without a loss. I feel if Utah is not higher today then they will not be since Utah is done this week and USC still has 2 games left.

Anonymous said...

So, we are looking at at least 2 and perhaps 3 "Auto Qualifier" Conference champs being ranked BELOW 2 and perhaps 3 "Non-Automatic Qualifer" Conference Champs.

Utah and Boise will both Obviously be ranked above the ACC champ, and the Big East champ.

If Oregon State ends up winning the PAC10, the Beavers will also be ranked below both the Utes and the Broncos.

AND, to add insult to injury, Ball State from the MAC might be ranked above all three champs from the PAC10, ACC, and BigEast.

They really have to put in a "floor" on the auto-qualifiers. You have to win your conference AND have 9 wins, AND be ranked at least 18 or something......

Babic said...

No way the voters should allow Texas Tech to remain in the Top 10 having been beat by 44 points. I still can't believe Ohio State is there having lost to USC by 32. Sure teams can have an off day, but top 10 team just shouldn't allow that margin of victory...I don't care who they are playing.

Anonymous said...

Your comment about Mack Brown having a vote in the coaches poll, and Stoops not having a vote, simply highlights the inbred, corrupt nature of the human polling of the BCS. It is a huge conflict of interest. I say do away with the human polls completely and rely on the stats. The human polls exist solely to manipulate the standings.
JimnAustin

kushphog said...

Texas can still win the BCS title as well. If OU loses to Ok St, Tech will go to the big12 title but will not be able to jump Texas in the bcs rankings even if they win the big12 title.

Texas is in the NC with any ou loss.

kushphog said...

and remember the bcs championship takes the #1 and #2 teams, conference championship not needed.

Texas is sitting to be 1 or 2 with any ou loss. Regardless of the big 12 title game.

Let tech have if ou loses, well take the NC

Hook'Em

Its 5:04 austin tx time and ou still sucks.

SteveHolt8472 said...

Yes, well, humans can see that USC is a stronger team than Utah and Georgia. The computers cannot. If Pete Carrol doesn't like a balance of subjectivity and objectivity, I think he'd really be averse to pure "objectivity."
Computers also don't take into account when a team lost or by how much. So Texas Tech might still be ranked ahead of Texas and OU. And in fact, Jeff Sagarin's ELO-CHESS still rates Texas Tech at 2.

David said...

Does anyone think either the Big East or the ACC are better top to bottom than the MWC? The MWC deserves an automatic BS bid if those others do. I agree with the person who said there needs to be change in how the automatic bids are determined. There need to be objective criteria - any champ with 10 wins and ranked in the Top Ten should qualify; any champ not in the Top 20 or having fewer than nine wins should not qualify.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous. No, USC has no chance. Their strength of schedule is not going to be enough to get them anywhere. So many things that are unlikely have to happen for them to get in. Even if OK loses to OK State, their is and computer ranking may have them ahead of USC. I doubt OK will lose though. I think Tech will beat baylor, and would take out Missouri if they were to play in the big 12 title. Their computer ranking relative to that of USC would put them on top n that battle. They would still have to get past 2 of three teams which include Texas, Bama, and Florida. Maybe is is technically possible, but with the ridiculously week schedule they played, is i pretty damn unlikely we'll see USC play for a title. They don't really deserve to if you think about it. The Pac 10 is just awful this year.

Anonymous said...

incorrect my friend. texas is ahead of oklahoma, YAY!!

Anonymous said...

you've got to be kidding me! Sagarin still has Tech ahead of OU??? How can there be any credibility to these rankings when you see somthing like that??

Anonymous said...

What happened? I don't see OU at #2? Where did you go wrong?

SteveHolt8472 said...

If I were a Texas fan, I wouldn't get too comfortable with that 0.0084 lead over OU. That's about 1/6th of what it was last week. On the other hand, Texas doesn't really need OU to beat OSU now. Given their sizeable lead over USC, playing in the Big XII championship game may no longer be a prerequisite to playing in the National Championship game.

Kevin said...

Here's how USC can still make the national championship game:

1) OK State beats OU (TT goes to the BIG 12 championship because of the head-to-head with UT - not based on BCS if there is only a two-way tie. TT may win, but after their OU 44 point loss to OU they are irrelevant! Thanks for playing! They could still feasibly lose to MO though in the BIG 12 championship regardless)

2) FLA State beats FLA this Saturday and FLA pounds Alabama in the SEC championship (Alabama could even lose a rivalry game this weekend to Auburn)

Under these scenarios, USC would move up 3 spaces to #2 and probably face UT in the title game. (OU, FLA, & Alabama would drop below them)

Stranger things have happened when the pressure gets turned up at the end of the year. We'll know for sure after this coming weekend as to whether or not they are still alive.

UT fans: You don't have to win the conference to go to the NC game. Just cheer for OK State this weekend and their win will put you in.

Anonymous said...

I hate to look like a 'hater' on here, because you are doing your best to provide a service.
But your last two posts were riddled with innacuracies.
1st, Alabama is not ascending to #1 this week, they've BEEN #1 for quite a few weeks now.
#2. Texas can still win the Big XII without a BCS tiebreaker. IF Baylor beats T-Tech, boom, Texas wins the Big XII South.
#3. In fact, all 3 of the top teams in the Big XII South could still be the outright South division champs.
#4. In fact, we could even end up in a 4-way tie if O-State wins and both Longhorns and T-Tech lose. All 4 would finish 6-2.
#5. USC is NOT out of it yet.
#6. In fact, UTAH is not even out of it yet.
#7. In fact, we could even see a USC/UTAH BCS Title game. Admittadly, it's a stretch. But if you remember last years craziness, then it's a little easier to imagine. Missouri would have to win the Big XII title game, and the the winner of the SEC title game would have to lose the week before, and then you should get USC in the title game.
#8. I know this is crazy, so don't discount the first 7 things because #8 is crazy. MATHEMATICALLY, we could even have a UTAH/Penn State BCS Title game.
For instance, FSU wins, Auburn wins, Cowboys beat Sooners, Aggies beat Longhorns, Baylor beats T-Tech, Missouri wins the Big XII title game over whoever they face, and USC loses just one of their remaining two games. Doesn't matter who Missouri plays, as long as Missouri wins and the other South Teams all lose the week before. Doesn't matter who wins the SEC title game, as long as the winner lost to their big in-state rival the week before.
The ONLY two teams safe from any potential madness is Utah and Penn State because they are done.

Anonymous said...

The only chance USC has is to embarass one of the remaining BCS teams, which will happen. Unfortunately woeful Texas Tech will probably play woeful Utah, which will prove nothing.
Strength of schedule is BS, just look at the two common opponents of Penn State and Utah, Penn state blasted bothe Michigan and Oregon State, while Utah beat each by three points.
The hype-sters will get their SEC-Big 12 matchup, which is what most everyone has wanted since mid-season. The only problem is that there are other worthy teams out there that will be denied an opportunity to prove that they are the best "at season end" on the field, which is how nearly every other sport in the world crowns their champion.

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