Saturday, October 25, 2008

Nothing, and Everything, Has Changed

Upset Saturday it was not, with nary a higher ranked team losing. But while everything seemed to have gone status quo, nothing's the same anymore.

Penn State's 13-6 knockdown of Ohio State in Columbus put the Nittany Lions perilously close to the BCS title game. At 9-0, Penn State has just three games remaining, all against very mortal opponents - Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State. The Lions' biggest task just might be scoreboard watching, as they'll need either Texas or Alabama to lose at least one more game.

The Longhorns are through 3/4 of their four-game gauntlet after a taut 28-24 affair against Oklahoma State. Next week, they'll try to finish off the quartet with a showdown against also unbeaten Texas Tech. A win in Lubbock should put Texas on the fast track to Miami for the BCS title game.

With that being the outlook, things all of a sudden are looking grim for all the one-loss teams. The top three teams will not get jumped if they stay undefeated. The rest of the field - Oklahoma, USC, Georgia, Florida and perhaps Oklahoma State - likely will be playing only for a BCS bowl berth.

The other fallout from the Penn State victory is that Ohio State most likely will still stay eligible for a BCS bowl berth by finishing in the top 14. That means should the Nittany Lions end up going to Miami, the Buckeyes will get an invitation for Pasadena. That also means that there will be just one BCS bowl berth left to be fought out by the remaining undefeated non-BCS teams - Utah, Boise State and maybe even Tulsa and Ball State.

The Guru's projected BCS standings for Week 9:

1. Texas, 2. Alabama, 3. Penn State, 4. Oklahoma, 5. USC, 6. Georgia, 7. Texas Tech, 8. Florida, 9. Utah, 10. Oklahoma State, 11. Boise State, 12. Ohio State, 13. Texas Christian, 14. Missouri, 15. Tulsa.


Anonymous said...

If PSU makes the title game, that likely means an OSU-USC rematch. How exciting!

dethwing said... it doesn't. Remember Oregon State can still win the Pac 10 and would go to the rose bowl. USC would still get a BCS bid, but they wouldn't play Ohio State.

Jams said...

What of TCU getting a shot at a BCS bowl? No mention? Even with one loss they're still positioned well in the rankings. If they manage a win over Utah, all they would seem to require is a Boise loss.

Andy said...

Texas Tech------does anyone bother looking at their schedule to date? The toughest team they have played so far is a weak Kansas team.

Penn State--- they should go undefeated everyone they play stinks!

Anonymous said...

While I am biased to the greatness of Florida as a Gator alum, how can Peter Wolfes computer poll rank Ball state ahead of Florida? The model is obviously missing a few factors.

Ben said...

Wow. Texas gets 1st in all computers? Looks like they are only 3 votes in the coaches poll and 11 in the Harris from having a perfect 1.0. We'll see if they can stand up to Texas Tech.

Clark said...

What do you figure the odds are of TCU passing BSU if they both win out? TCU has the tougher schedule to finish the year and will certainly start to close the gap, but will it be enough?

Anonymous said...

How does the BCS calculate really low scores?

For example, if South Florida loses on the road this thursday, and drops even lower in the polls ...

Do they continue to give BCS points for "others getting votes" catagory? If South Florida falls out of the top25 in the Human polls, and continues to be 40+ in the computer polls, hows does the BCS calculate their BCS rank?

Anonymous said...

Hi again,

Well, I am the anonymous who two weeks ago or so questioned about the two non-BCS teams. I'm back to say the Guru was right and I was wrong. The BigTen WILL end up with two teams in the top 14. I really expected OSU to fall 5 to 8 places (similar to MichState 10 place drop the week before and Mizzu's drop the week before that). They didn't, they only fell like 3 places.

So, I guess I'm here to say "you were right and I was wrong!"