tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post1987942511196316713..comments2023-12-22T14:33:15.754-08:00Comments on Playoff Guru: The Envelope, Please ...Samuel Chihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07694013336972776957noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-66923887688231748742008-12-03T18:28:00.000-08:002008-12-03T18:28:00.000-08:00It appears to me that there's a lot of misperc...It appears to me that there's a lot of misperceptions. The facts are that the human polls had a slight preference for Texas, but the computers had a decidedly preference for OU, which pushed them ahead of Texas overall.<BR/><BR/>My question is: "why do the computers favor OU so much?" <BR/><BR/>None of the computers consider point differential in games, so the magnitude of OU's wins are moot.<BR/><BR/>The conventional wisdom answer is that OU had the tougher non-conference schedule, and therefore got the nod from the computers. However, I've visited each of the 6 computer's websites, and they don't support that conventional wisdom. The "strength of schedule" or similar parameter is provided by the Anderson/Hester, Colley Matrix, and Sagarin. Each of these show Texas had the harder schedule. A/H and Colley had Texas over OU. But Sagarin had OU over Texas (even though Tx had the better strength of schedule).<BR/><BR/>The remaining 3 computers favored OU. Billingsly emphasizes "recent performance" and strongly penalizes the team who had the most recent loss. Not surprisingly, of the three, OU was ranked highest, followed by Texas, then Tech (in the chronological order of their losses).<BR/><BR/>Massey had OU #1, Tech #2, and Texas #3. I've read that Massey weighs strength of schedule (SOS) only second to overall record. So SOS is clearly an important factor for teams with the same record. The Massey SOS for these teams isn't clear on the website, but have a hard time believing Tech's SOS is better than Texas (based on the other models who did publish SOS).<BR/><BR/>Finally, Peter Wolfe computer had the same results as Sagarin (OU #1, Texas #2, Tech #3), and from what I've read, they use similar criteria. Again, no SOS is provided.<BR/><BR/>In short, A&H and Colley rankings make sense given their criteria and calculated SOS. Massey makes sense given it's emphasis on recent performance and penalizing teams with recent losses.<BR/><BR/>But, can anyone explain why Sagarin, Wolfe, and Massey rank OU above Texas when it doesn't appear to be based on a better SOS?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-53157599335040884032008-12-03T07:32:00.000-08:002008-12-03T07:32:00.000-08:00Texas pulls their starters much earlier than OU, t...Texas pulls their starters much earlier than OU, therefore the slight difference in the stats.Mack Brown plays the#2 and 3players when Texas has dominated the game.Even when Texas beat OU head to head, Texas could have scored once more, but sat on the ball instead, I would have rather won by 17 but for whatever reason Mack wont run up the score like OU does.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-71745021298795657432008-12-01T06:48:00.000-08:002008-12-01T06:48:00.000-08:00Everyone is talking how to tweak the system and to...Everyone is talking how to tweak the system and to me its pretty simple. Have a stipilation that if there are 2 teams in the same conference both ranked in the top 5 (BCS) then they play in the confernce championship game regardless of who wins the North or South. It should have happened last year in the SEC also with Georgia playing LSU instead of Tennessee, and it should happen this year also with Texas. Imagine Texas/Oklahoma and Florida/Alabama playing this weekend for the right to go to the BCS championship game? Missouri has no business in that game if there are other teams in their conference with National championship hopes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-87197997998088309412008-12-01T03:44:00.000-08:002008-12-01T03:44:00.000-08:00So the big 12 championship game is between OU and ...So the big 12 championship game is between OU and Mizzou. Texas Beat them both Texas should be in the big game BCS sucks assAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-302436676775451022008-11-30T21:26:00.000-08:002008-11-30T21:26:00.000-08:00All three teams in the South all have a cliam to p...All three teams in the South all have a cliam to play for the big 12 crown and I agree the BCS should not come into play for a tie breaker period. So the question is do you look at who had the best loss or who had the best win? OU by far and way had the best win against Tech. I would then argue that Tech might have the second best win because they were dominating Texas only to loose their big lead and then come back at the end in drametic fasion to win. No question the TX win over OU was impressive but they tralied most of 3 qtrs and were able to take advantage of a defense that lost their play caller and heart and soul. The other question you have to ask is if both OU and Texas were to go play again who would win the game? From what I have seen OU is playing much better than it did 2 months ago and Texas might have peeked early.... <BR/>Enough with this crappy system lets go settle it on the field. Give us a PLAYOFF!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-16067717786374463742008-11-30T16:44:00.000-08:002008-11-30T16:44:00.000-08:00Well if you want the best school in rankings USC i...Well if you want the best school in rankings USC is the only school that has been in the top 5 in the Polls in last 7 years. Here is how the rest of the top teams have done oklahoma-4 Alabama-1 Florida-2 Texas-3 Texas Tech-1 LSU-3 Ohio State-5 Too bad they dont go by how you have done in the pastAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-7527261415997354542008-11-30T16:02:00.000-08:002008-11-30T16:02:00.000-08:00I wouldn't say that USC "locked up" a Rose Bowl be...I wouldn't say that USC "locked up" a Rose Bowl berth, since losing to UCLA would cost them that berth (it would create a 3-way tie that Oregon State wins). Yes, it's unlikely, but USC was going to easily beat UCLA two years ago as well to make it to the BCS Title Game and they lost that. So, almost certainly not going to happen, but for a second it looked like Baylor might beat Texas Tech as well this weekend.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-24595071028485357412008-11-30T15:36:00.000-08:002008-11-30T15:36:00.000-08:00When Texas beat mizz. their bcs score was .9979, a...When Texas beat mizz. their bcs score was .9979, after they beat ok st. their score went up to .9981 only .0002 of an increase. Ok st. was the #6 team in the country at that time. When Tex. Tech played the now #9 OK ST.Tech bcs score was .937 after the win it went to .971 a increase of .034. Oklahoma's bcs score was .912 prior to playing the now #12 Ok st it is now .935 a increase of .023 these teams got more credit for beating a lessor ranked opponent that Texas played give the Longhorns the credit they deserve for beating the #6 ranked team. thay should be #2 period.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-9651961322339477862008-11-30T15:24:00.000-08:002008-11-30T15:24:00.000-08:00Women have taken over college football. It's a bea...Women have taken over college football. It's a beauty pagent with judges deciding who's the prettiest!<BR/><BR/>Men, let's take back our sport where victories on the field determine who is the best.<BR/><BR/>BCS System is a fraud. Who cares anymore about what the BCS wusses think?Boyd 2ndhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08591779060286895102noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-86683515576984475282008-11-30T15:17:00.000-08:002008-11-30T15:17:00.000-08:00Anyone who thinks Tech should be thrown out of the...Anyone who thinks Tech should be thrown out of the equation should realize that Texas lost to this "terrible" team, therefore by this crooked logic, Texas should be thrown out of the equation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-42401746232087810142008-11-30T14:16:00.000-08:002008-11-30T14:16:00.000-08:00Is there a significant chance for a UT/OU re-match...Is there a significant chance for a UT/OU re-match if UF beats Bama. The computers seem to have little love for the Gators.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-51141249585311750192008-11-30T14:02:00.000-08:002008-11-30T14:02:00.000-08:005:01 PM....so much for projections, lots more chan...5:01 PM<BR/>....so much for projections, lots more change than I anticipated in PW and RB....Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13757904112896304703noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-61658754024257387812008-11-30T13:59:00.000-08:002008-11-30T13:59:00.000-08:00And if you think there's a difference between sett...And if you think there's a difference between setting and picking a winner, DOH!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-40421543728683165062008-11-30T13:57:00.000-08:002008-11-30T13:57:00.000-08:005 pm ESTIt's down to the computers as Texas le...5 pm EST<BR/>It's down to the computers as Texas leads OU by a micron in the human polls, probably 1/1000th of a point. Based on last weeks polls and shifts in schedule strength, etc., these computer results seem likely:<BR/><BR/>A&H: TX 24, OU 22<BR/>JS: TX 24, OU 25 (already available)<BR/>PW: TX 24, OU 23<BR/>CM: TX 25, OU 24<BR/>RB: TX 23, OU 24<BR/>KM: TX 24, OU 25<BR/><BR/>Throw out the high and the low and you get, yes you guessed it, another dead heat at .960 average each. The 6 point lead Texas has in the harris poll versus the 1 point lead OU has in the USA poll therefore gives the big 12 to.....TEXAS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-12051967650537050522008-11-30T13:50:00.000-08:002008-11-30T13:50:00.000-08:00Hey "neutralfan"...The oddsmakers in Vegas don't P...Hey "neutralfan"...<BR/><BR/>The oddsmakers in Vegas don't PICK games...they set a line that they think will bring in equal money on both sides, thus insuring them a payday on the vig.<BR/><BR/>The lines don't mean jack with respect to how much a team "should" win by...it's all about balancing the money.<BR/><BR/>So, basically, it's you who are the idiot.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-43365994615540631162008-11-30T13:48:00.000-08:002008-11-30T13:48:00.000-08:00OU is the best team in the country.They had the ha...OU is the best team in the country.<BR/>They had the hardest strength of schedule.<BR/><BR/>Head to head matchups DO count. But texas fans want to cherry-pick one game of the three way tie and ignore the other two. Honesty demands you look at all three which turns into a circular argument. Texas fans want to say Tech isn't part of the equation. They want to punish Oklahoma for destroying a team they lost to. Had OU won on a last second field goal, then they couldn't argue that Tech isn't part of the equation. Fairness and honesty says they are. <BR/><BR/>Texas lost to tech. Face it. It matters!<BR/><BR/>OU is simply better and deserves the right to go to the Championship game.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-41332159156766005952008-11-30T13:08:00.000-08:002008-11-30T13:08:00.000-08:00I knew texas fans are dumb but i didn't know they ...I knew texas fans are dumb but i didn't know they a<BR/>were that dumb? why don't they let the oddsmakers in vages tell you who's the best team is. my prediction they would have OU a 8 to 10 point favorate. and they have something at stake. If all you dumb longhorn fan want to put your money up and have them at a pick'em get after it because there would be a ton of oddsmakers in vages wanting to gamble with youneutralfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11436378714284105478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-89389535991128852692008-11-30T12:38:00.000-08:002008-11-30T12:38:00.000-08:00Sure looks like a lot of Texas fans on this site a...Sure looks like a lot of Texas fans on this site as well. Your coach and alum were e-mailing and calling to try to get your team above Oklahoma. Your team knew the tie-breakers going into the season, so quit whining and let it play out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-67542060579443764962008-11-30T12:20:00.000-08:002008-11-30T12:20:00.000-08:00You make excellent comments. I must agree with yo...You make excellent comments. I must agree with your prediction. It will be close, but OU Sooners should be above Texas.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-70360454775288283722008-11-30T12:04:00.000-08:002008-11-30T12:04:00.000-08:00Adam,Because Florida has 1 loss by 1 point. Flori...Adam,<BR/><BR/>Because Florida has 1 loss by 1 point. Florida will have beaten the number 1 team in the country. OK defense must suck because national champions don't give up 41 points.Henry Louis Gomezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03167391252653145914noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-74002853049456145342008-11-30T11:37:00.000-08:002008-11-30T11:37:00.000-08:00Peter Wolfe also has OU number 1 and Texas 2.Peter Wolfe also has OU number 1 and Texas 2.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-39042184001688323002008-11-30T11:16:00.000-08:002008-11-30T11:16:00.000-08:00The Coaches Poll needs to be made public every wee...The Coaches Poll needs to be made public every week. There is zero accountability until the final vote.<BR/><BR/>Florida blasts #20 on the road and drops.<BR/><BR/>OU tears through #12 on the road and drops.<BR/><BR/>Texas beats the worst team in the Big XII at home and moves up.<BR/><BR/>Texas Tech eeks out a victory over Baylor at home and moves up big.<BR/><BR/>There is obvious manipulation of the polls this week, and since they're not made public until after the conference championship games, coaches like Mack Brown and Mike Leach may have voted themselves better bowl games.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-39346699171643821022008-11-30T10:02:00.000-08:002008-11-30T10:02:00.000-08:00I think you've done a good job of presenting half ...I think you've done a good job of presenting half the story and I don't disagree with much of what you've said - but there are some factors you've left out that make the case for Texas somewhat better - for instance, the Closest Loss factor.<BR/><BR/>Not that it makes a huge difference, but since you're counting up bowl-bound opponents let me point out that 6-6 FAU, a Texas victim, is almost certainly bowl bound as well.<BR/><BR/>You say it's a non-sequitur that Texas beat OU on a neutral field and that all it proves is that Texas could've beaten OU at Austin as well, which would just give all three teams a 1-1 record in the series, each with a home win. Sorry, but that's not all it proves. For one thing, home field is usually considered to be worth 3-4 points (implying the difference between a home win and a neutral one is less than two points). Texas won by 10 at a neutral site, so they can plausibly claim that they might well have won at Norman, not only in Dallas and Austin.<BR/><BR/>To look at it another way, Texas was 1-0 Neutral, 0-1 Home; TT was 1-0 Home, 0-1 Road, and OU was 1-0 Home, 0-1 Neutral. OU had the easiest set-up of the three, and UT the hardest.<BR/><BR/>Still another way: Texas has only a very close road loss, the closest loss of the three. TT has a blowout road loss, and OU has 10-point neutral site loss, a worse loss in two respects than UT's loss.<BR/><BR/>And the way many are looking at it: TT's resume is the least imnpressive of the three, especially the two FCS opponents. So knock them out of consideration, and it's a two-team race, with the decision going to the winner of the OU-UT game. That's the way several other conferences would resolve it, almost all in UT's favor. The SEC would use the BCS rankings to eliminate TT and then UT would beat out OU. The ACC would reward UT for having the toughest B12 North slate of the three. The BigTen would punish TT for those two FCS opponents, and again UT would beat out OU in the final step.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-37226422376149806952008-11-30T08:54:00.000-08:002008-11-30T08:54:00.000-08:00Wow! That was some lame-assed copy and paste “ana...Wow! That was some lame-assed copy and paste “analysis”! Since you stole the concept from an SEC based school at least acknowledge that if SEC tie-breaker methodology were employed in this situation Texas would be going to the BIG 12 Championship game – no questions asked.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6331918571067993675.post-21279042008228980992008-11-30T08:40:00.000-08:002008-11-30T08:40:00.000-08:00You can't look at scores alone. Texas, in the...You can't look at scores alone. Texas, in their typical classy style, played almost the entire 4th quarter against A&M with their 2nd string. Stoops, in his typical class-less style, could have taken a knee with under 30 seconds left to end the game, but instead chose to score a meaningless touchdown just to increase the number of offensive points scored. It seems everyone has forgotten than Texas played 4 top-10 teams in a row and only fell short in the last second out of the 16 quarters of top-10 play.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com