At last, the Guru has published the 2009 BCS Standings, preseason edition. There are a few items of note that may impact the standings throughout the season.
But first, the methodology. This is the third season I'm running a simulated preseason standings, and this model isn't all that different from the '07 and '08 versions. The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Poll, and as I noted in painstaking detail previously, this is a no-brainer.
Three of the six computers release preseason rankings - Massey, Sagarin and Billingsley. Their ratings are used in the standings. Three others - Colley (mid-September), Anderson & Hester (late September) and Wolfe (mid-October) - don't release theirs until later in the season, so I used the median ranking of each team, from 29 computers, in their place.
Now, onto the observations:
* The top of the standings fairly resembles the two human polls, with Florida well ahead, followed by Texas, Oklahoma and USC. It's worth noting that the computers are already favoring the Trojans over the two Big 12 rivals. USC is barely behind Oklahoma (.0044) and not too far back from Texas (.0160), either. A victory at Ohio State will probably be enough to vault USC into #2 in the BCS standings.
* Ole Miss, the early darling of the human polls, is getting no love from the computers (not to mention the BlogPoll). While Houston Nutt's Rebels are in the top 10 in the Coaches (#10) and AP (#8) polls, it's only #13 in Billingsley, #23 in Massey and #43 (and therefore no points) in Sagarin. Since they don't play anyone of consequence until Oct. 10 against Alabama, it'll stay that way for a while.
* The three highest rated non-BCS teams - Boise State, TCU and Utah - are clustered at #15-#17, roughly corresponding their places in the human polls. Utah is getting a bit more computer juice, as residuals from its undefeated 2008 season, ranking as absurdly high as #3 in Billingsley. It will be a tall order, as usual, to work from this position into any sort of a run at a spot in the BCS championship game.
* Notre Dame is given a modicum of respect by the human polls, at #23 for both. The computers just spat on the Irish - #59 in Billingsley, #51 in Massey, #48 in Sagarin and a median ranking of #47 for all computers. In order to make it into a BCS bowl game, Notre Dame will have to either beat USC or go no worse than 10-2.
* The initial standings include a ridiculous 62 teams, more than half of Division I-A teams. Tulsa rounds out the standings with its single vote in the AP Poll, which trumped the single votes for Michigan (even with all that extra practice time) and Minnesota in the Coaches Poll.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Sunday, August 30, 2009
BCS Weekly News Roundup (Aug. 30)
BYU TAKES DEAD AIM AT OKLAHOMA (Salt Lake Tribune, Aug. 28) - BYU reached or surpassed the 10-win mark for the third straight year, qualified for a bowl game for the fourth straight year and finished the season ranked 25th in the AP poll. Yet, the Cougars "had kind of an empty feeling" last January as they summed up 2008 and started looking ahead to 2009.
COMPUTERS, BCS AND BOISE STATE (BarkBoard.com, Aug. 27) - Boise State has yet to play its first game of the 2009 season but most of us know that this year’s team has the potential of returning to another BCS bowl game. Though the BCS system continues to be chided by fans and many in the media, it is the system we must live with at present.
BCS RATINGS WRACKED FANS' NERVES (Newport News Daily Press, Aug. 27) -
The Bowl Championship Series is one of the most consistently satisfying punching bags in sports. Ten years ago, however, the BCS was in its infancy and only beginning to aggravate college football fans.
APPLY SOME LOGIC TO REVIVE BCS (Dallas Morning News, Aug. 26) - The college football season is a mere 10 days away, even less depending upon your team of choice. As opposed to those of you who would like to see the BCS disappear by means of lethal injection – some e-mailers get so overheated I think they would prefer it suffer a more painful demise – I simply want to rehabilitate it.
SI GOES AFTER COACHES' SECRET BALLOTS (SI.com, Aug. 25) - SI.com will file records requests with the employer of each of the 51 public school coaches who vote in the 2009 poll. If the schools comply with the law, we should get a look at every ballot. Legal action may be required if schools refuse to comply. Every ballot we receive will be published.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Ten Years of BCS: 2006
BCS had its dream season in 2005. Too bad it had to wake up for 2006.
Throughout most of the year, it looked as if the BCS would have its first intra-conference rematch, pitting Ohio State against Michigan. The Big Ten's bitter rivals matched each other game-for-game on a collision course of unbeatens while other contenders fell away.
Then on the eve of the 1-vs.-2 showdown at the Horseshoe, Bo Schembechler, Michigan's legendary coach (and former Ohio State assistant), passed away.
The two teams joined battle with raw emotions, if very little defense. The surprisingly high-scoring game was more or less decided by Michigan linebacker Shawn Crable's late hit on Ohio State QB Troy Smith late in the game. The Buckeyes won, 42-39.
But Michigan stayed at No. 2 in the BCS standings even after the game, making a rematch in Arizona a real possibility. Then the Wolverines began to fall, week after week, without playing a single down.
First, they were passed by USC, after a thrashing of overrated Notre Dame at the Coliseum. And then, just as when it appeared that the Trojans would play in its third consecutive BCS title game, they suffered a monumental choke job against UCLA at the Rose Bowl. Michigan's rematch with Ohio State was on again.
Only for a few hours, as it turned out. After Florida dispatched Arkansas, with some difficulty, in the SEC Championship Game, the Gators leapfrogged the Wolverines (is that physiologically possible?) and got the coveted date with the Buckeyes.
Ruining the rematch turned out to be a good thing in this sense: Both Ohio State and Michigan proved to be ... frauds. The Buckeyes were mauled by Florida in a game that was never close after Ohio State scored on the opening kickoff. Michigan was likewise annihilated by USC in the Rose Bowl.
Florida got its first national championship under Urban Meyer, thanks to a lucky break - USC losing against a 20-point underdog UCLA - and a massive voter defection (more on that later). But at the end, very little argument may be made about the Gators' legitimacy as the BCS national champion.
This was also the first year of the double-host format, where the bowl hosting the BCS national championship game also would have its regular bowl game. With this arrangement, teams qualifying for BCS bowls would increase from eight to 10.
The main beneficiary of this change was supposed to be non-BCS conference teams, now with better access to BCS bowls. And undefeated Boise State took full advantage.
In the same University of Phoenix Stadium that was to host the BCS title game, Boise State shocked and enthralled college football fans with its delightful 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos tied the game on a hook-and-ladder, won the game on a Statue of Liberty, and capped it off with a marriage proposal as running back Ian Johnson got down to one knee in front of girlfriend Chrissy Popadics on national TV.
She said "yes!"
Final BCS Standings: 1. Ohio State, 2. Florida, 3. Michigan, 4. LSU.
Alternative Methods -
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) Formula: 1. Ohio State, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida, 4. LSU.
Using human polls only: 1. Ohio State, 2. Florida, 3. Michigan, 4. LSU.
Plus One: Ohio State vs. USC; Florida vs. Michigan.
Controversy: Michigan fans won't soon forget how fickle voters defected from their team. After losing to Ohio State, the Wolverines were still comfortably ahead of both USC and Florida in both the Coaches and Harris polls. But that soon changed.
Entering the final week of the regular season, Michigan was ahead of Florida by 86 points in the Harris Poll and 40 points in the Coaches Poll. But after Florida's win over Arkansas, the Gators went ahead of Michigan by 38 points in the Harris Poll (a swing of 114 points) and 26 in the Coaches Poll (a swing of 66 points). In both cases, the voters were determined to avoid a Michigan-Ohio State rematch. With Florida and Michigan dead even in the computer rankings, the voters' wish carried the day.
BCS Formula Review: With the formula now set, the only revelation of 2006 was that the Harris Poll proved to be no better (or worse) than any other human polls. The Harris voters, like the coaches (and the writers in the AP poll) defected from Michigan to push, first USC, then Florida, into the BCS title game. As the human polls now comprise two-thirds of the BCS formula, essentially the computer rankings are rendered meaningless in a tight race.
Analysis: Did the right team win the BCS championship? Perhaps. But had USC not inexplicably gagged against a team that it beat, 66-19, the year before and had won seven straight against, Florida would never have made it to the title game. There would've been protests from both Michigan and Florida after USC presumably walloped Ohio State.
The two best teams of the season, as indicated by bowl results, never got to play each other. USC blew its chance at a third national title in four years, but the Trojans and Gators would never have gotten a chance to play each other anyway. Not with Ohio State being insulated in the Big Ten and going undefeated.
History would repeat itself in 2007 ... and 2008.
Throughout most of the year, it looked as if the BCS would have its first intra-conference rematch, pitting Ohio State against Michigan. The Big Ten's bitter rivals matched each other game-for-game on a collision course of unbeatens while other contenders fell away.
Then on the eve of the 1-vs.-2 showdown at the Horseshoe, Bo Schembechler, Michigan's legendary coach (and former Ohio State assistant), passed away.
The two teams joined battle with raw emotions, if very little defense. The surprisingly high-scoring game was more or less decided by Michigan linebacker Shawn Crable's late hit on Ohio State QB Troy Smith late in the game. The Buckeyes won, 42-39.
But Michigan stayed at No. 2 in the BCS standings even after the game, making a rematch in Arizona a real possibility. Then the Wolverines began to fall, week after week, without playing a single down.
First, they were passed by USC, after a thrashing of overrated Notre Dame at the Coliseum. And then, just as when it appeared that the Trojans would play in its third consecutive BCS title game, they suffered a monumental choke job against UCLA at the Rose Bowl. Michigan's rematch with Ohio State was on again.
Only for a few hours, as it turned out. After Florida dispatched Arkansas, with some difficulty, in the SEC Championship Game, the Gators leapfrogged the Wolverines (is that physiologically possible?) and got the coveted date with the Buckeyes.
Ruining the rematch turned out to be a good thing in this sense: Both Ohio State and Michigan proved to be ... frauds. The Buckeyes were mauled by Florida in a game that was never close after Ohio State scored on the opening kickoff. Michigan was likewise annihilated by USC in the Rose Bowl.
Florida got its first national championship under Urban Meyer, thanks to a lucky break - USC losing against a 20-point underdog UCLA - and a massive voter defection (more on that later). But at the end, very little argument may be made about the Gators' legitimacy as the BCS national champion.
This was also the first year of the double-host format, where the bowl hosting the BCS national championship game also would have its regular bowl game. With this arrangement, teams qualifying for BCS bowls would increase from eight to 10.
The main beneficiary of this change was supposed to be non-BCS conference teams, now with better access to BCS bowls. And undefeated Boise State took full advantage.
In the same University of Phoenix Stadium that was to host the BCS title game, Boise State shocked and enthralled college football fans with its delightful 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos tied the game on a hook-and-ladder, won the game on a Statue of Liberty, and capped it off with a marriage proposal as running back Ian Johnson got down to one knee in front of girlfriend Chrissy Popadics on national TV.
She said "yes!"
Final BCS Standings: 1. Ohio State, 2. Florida, 3. Michigan, 4. LSU.
Alternative Methods -
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) Formula: 1. Ohio State, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida, 4. LSU.
Using human polls only: 1. Ohio State, 2. Florida, 3. Michigan, 4. LSU.
Plus One: Ohio State vs. USC; Florida vs. Michigan.
Controversy: Michigan fans won't soon forget how fickle voters defected from their team. After losing to Ohio State, the Wolverines were still comfortably ahead of both USC and Florida in both the Coaches and Harris polls. But that soon changed.
Entering the final week of the regular season, Michigan was ahead of Florida by 86 points in the Harris Poll and 40 points in the Coaches Poll. But after Florida's win over Arkansas, the Gators went ahead of Michigan by 38 points in the Harris Poll (a swing of 114 points) and 26 in the Coaches Poll (a swing of 66 points). In both cases, the voters were determined to avoid a Michigan-Ohio State rematch. With Florida and Michigan dead even in the computer rankings, the voters' wish carried the day.
BCS Formula Review: With the formula now set, the only revelation of 2006 was that the Harris Poll proved to be no better (or worse) than any other human polls. The Harris voters, like the coaches (and the writers in the AP poll) defected from Michigan to push, first USC, then Florida, into the BCS title game. As the human polls now comprise two-thirds of the BCS formula, essentially the computer rankings are rendered meaningless in a tight race.
Analysis: Did the right team win the BCS championship? Perhaps. But had USC not inexplicably gagged against a team that it beat, 66-19, the year before and had won seven straight against, Florida would never have made it to the title game. There would've been protests from both Michigan and Florida after USC presumably walloped Ohio State.
The two best teams of the season, as indicated by bowl results, never got to play each other. USC blew its chance at a third national title in four years, but the Trojans and Gators would never have gotten a chance to play each other anyway. Not with Ohio State being insulated in the Big Ten and going undefeated.
History would repeat itself in 2007 ... and 2008.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Why the AP Poll Still Matters
The Associated Press top 25 was released over the weekend. And it didn't make much of a splash aside from that Florida got an unprecedented 58 of 60 first-place votes.
But don't be fooled. Even in the BCS Era, the AP Poll still matters. A lot.
Ever since the AP asked (or more accurately, demanded) out of the BCS standings after the 2004 season, the most venerable and prestigious college football poll seemed to have taken a backseat. To the coaches poll, for sure. But also to the Harris Poll, which was founded for no other reason than to replace AP in the BCS standings.
On so many levels, however, the AP Poll is still very influential:
1. It has more credibility than any other poll: The AP poll began in 1936, long before the coaches poll (1950) and never mind the Harris poll (2005). It has released a weekly ranking with a final poll without interruption, through war and peace. Its voters' identities are disclosed to the public, as are their ballots. Contrast that with the decidedly non-transparent process of the Coaches Poll.
The Associated Press continues to crown its champions, regardless of other polls or arrangements. It's been around long before the BCS and it might outlast the BCS. There's always a possibility that the BCS may disband after the next contract runs out - even if it's a slim one. But the AP Poll? It'll always be there.
2. It's still used by most of the media: Don't forget, the AP is the media poll. All print publications and most of the electronic media use the AP poll as a reference. The purpose of the BCS standings is to produce two teams for the BCS national title game and other BCS bowl games, as evidenced by its lack of a season-ending standings. Case-in-point: Utah finished No. 2 in the AP Poll and No. 3 in the Coaches Poll last season. Guess which one was always cited in this spring's BCS discussions?
3. The Harris Poll is basically an AP Poll surrogate: Never mind that the Harris Poll doesn't come out until late September and its voters are supposedly keeping an open mind by watching a few weeks' worth of games before they vote.
Make no mistake, Harris voters are greatly influenced by the AP poll. They can't help it. They have to start somewhere.
AP Poll Archive (one of the Guru's most favored go-to sources) did the research. And as you can see, there's not much of a difference between Harris Poll rankings and the AP ones. In fact, in its four seasons of existence, there has been just three minor variations in its final regular-season top 10, and none among the top four. In 2008, the two polls had identical top 10s at the end of the regular season.
4. AP still crowns a champion: Who was the national champion in 2003? The majority of the country would acknowlege a split, with many siding with USC over LSU (to the eternal consternation of Tigers fans). Last year, had Oklahoma defeated Florida in the BCS title game, the AP might've crowned Utah as the champion over OU, who would've been the BCS champion.
For as long as AP crowns its own champion, there is always a possibility of a split title. And the AP champion would be every bit as legitimate as the BCS champion. Look at it another way - The BCS merely produces a champion for the Coaches Poll, one that by all counts an inferior one to the AP Poll.
This list of national champions will always be the one that shows up in your hometown newspaper (unless you're in Louisiana) - for as long as newspapers exist. That's why the AP Poll still matters.
But don't be fooled. Even in the BCS Era, the AP Poll still matters. A lot.
Ever since the AP asked (or more accurately, demanded) out of the BCS standings after the 2004 season, the most venerable and prestigious college football poll seemed to have taken a backseat. To the coaches poll, for sure. But also to the Harris Poll, which was founded for no other reason than to replace AP in the BCS standings.
On so many levels, however, the AP Poll is still very influential:
1. It has more credibility than any other poll: The AP poll began in 1936, long before the coaches poll (1950) and never mind the Harris poll (2005). It has released a weekly ranking with a final poll without interruption, through war and peace. Its voters' identities are disclosed to the public, as are their ballots. Contrast that with the decidedly non-transparent process of the Coaches Poll.
The Associated Press continues to crown its champions, regardless of other polls or arrangements. It's been around long before the BCS and it might outlast the BCS. There's always a possibility that the BCS may disband after the next contract runs out - even if it's a slim one. But the AP Poll? It'll always be there.
2. It's still used by most of the media: Don't forget, the AP is the media poll. All print publications and most of the electronic media use the AP poll as a reference. The purpose of the BCS standings is to produce two teams for the BCS national title game and other BCS bowl games, as evidenced by its lack of a season-ending standings. Case-in-point: Utah finished No. 2 in the AP Poll and No. 3 in the Coaches Poll last season. Guess which one was always cited in this spring's BCS discussions?
3. The Harris Poll is basically an AP Poll surrogate: Never mind that the Harris Poll doesn't come out until late September and its voters are supposedly keeping an open mind by watching a few weeks' worth of games before they vote.
Make no mistake, Harris voters are greatly influenced by the AP poll. They can't help it. They have to start somewhere.
AP Poll Archive (one of the Guru's most favored go-to sources) did the research. And as you can see, there's not much of a difference between Harris Poll rankings and the AP ones. In fact, in its four seasons of existence, there has been just three minor variations in its final regular-season top 10, and none among the top four. In 2008, the two polls had identical top 10s at the end of the regular season.
4. AP still crowns a champion: Who was the national champion in 2003? The majority of the country would acknowlege a split, with many siding with USC over LSU (to the eternal consternation of Tigers fans). Last year, had Oklahoma defeated Florida in the BCS title game, the AP might've crowned Utah as the champion over OU, who would've been the BCS champion.
For as long as AP crowns its own champion, there is always a possibility of a split title. And the AP champion would be every bit as legitimate as the BCS champion. Look at it another way - The BCS merely produces a champion for the Coaches Poll, one that by all counts an inferior one to the AP Poll.
This list of national champions will always be the one that shows up in your hometown newspaper (unless you're in Louisiana) - for as long as newspapers exist. That's why the AP Poll still matters.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
BCS Weekly News Roundup (Aug. 23)
ASSOCIATED PRESS PRESEASON TOP 25 (CBS Sports, Aug. 23) - Florida received an unprecedented 58 of 60 first-place votes and was two points short of being the consensus preseason No. 1.
MOUNTAIN WEST URGES BCS ACTION (Denver Post, Aug. 21) - Mountain West Conference commissioner Craig Thompson reiterated his cause to change the selection process for the BCS bowl games to include qualified teams from all conferences. Earlier this year, Thompson presented a proposal to the BCS committee that was turned down. "We've talked all we can," Thompson said.
GATOR BOWL DROPS BIG EAST, GOES FOR BIG TEN (Florida Times-Union, Aug. 19) - The Gator Bowl and the Big East Conference have parted ways after 14 years, clearing the way for new conference affiliations in Jacksonville's New Year's Day bowl that will include some combination of the Atlantic Coast Conference, Southeastern Conference and the Big Ten.
SEC'S JOKE OF A CUPCAKE SCHEDULE (Birmingham News, Aug. 17) - When the SEC schedules non-conference games, it's a joke. It's ought to be embarrassing. This is the best conference in the nation, a league that wants for nothing, a league with not only record attendance but a record TV deal. But this non-conference schedule, ugghhh, it's awful.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Preseason)
As previously noted, the Guru will take part in the BlogPoll this season. I have submitted my preseason ballot as shown below:
This is a significant departure from the "Guru's Rankings" and also will vary quite a bit from the first Sim-BCS Standings due out next week. Here's why:
1. The BlogPoll's purpose is to rank teams based on their performance. By definition, there really shouldn't even be a preseason poll since nobody has played a down yet. But since we must submit a preseason ballot, this is what I got. Teams may move up or down my ballot pretty dramatically in the first few weeks of the season as I'm by no means married to these preseason rankings.
2. The "Guru's Rankings" is not subjective, like any of the polls, including the BlogPoll, Coaches Poll and AP Poll. It's an algorithm designed to rank the teams' chances of reaching the BCS championship game. Teams playing soft schedules, particularly the better teams from BCS conferences, will be ranked preferentially. (Florida vs. Charleston Southern, anyone?)
3. The Sim-BCS Standings (previously the "Unofficial" BCS Standings) is the closest facsimile to the real BCS Standings until it's officially released in mid-October. The sim standings will strictly follow the BCS formula, with a couple of substitutions until all components of the standings are made available.
 | ||
| Rank | Team | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | |
| 2 | USC | |
| 3 | Texas | |
| 4 | Oklahoma | |
| 5 | Ohio State | |
| 6 | Virginia Tech | |
| 7 | Penn State | |
| 8 | Alabama | |
| 9 | Boise State | |
| 10 | TCU | |
| 11 | Utah | |
| 12 | LSU | |
| 13 | Oregon | |
| 14 | Georgia | |
| 15 | Oklahoma State | |
| 16 | Mississippi | |
| 17 | Georgia Tech | |
| 18 | California | |
| 19 | Notre Dame | |
| 20 | North Carolina | |
| 21 | Pittsburgh | |
| 22 | Iowa | |
| 23 | West Virginia | |
| 24 | Brigham Young | |
| 25 | Florida State | |
This is a significant departure from the "Guru's Rankings" and also will vary quite a bit from the first Sim-BCS Standings due out next week. Here's why:
1. The BlogPoll's purpose is to rank teams based on their performance. By definition, there really shouldn't even be a preseason poll since nobody has played a down yet. But since we must submit a preseason ballot, this is what I got. Teams may move up or down my ballot pretty dramatically in the first few weeks of the season as I'm by no means married to these preseason rankings.
2. The "Guru's Rankings" is not subjective, like any of the polls, including the BlogPoll, Coaches Poll and AP Poll. It's an algorithm designed to rank the teams' chances of reaching the BCS championship game. Teams playing soft schedules, particularly the better teams from BCS conferences, will be ranked preferentially. (Florida vs. Charleston Southern, anyone?)
3. The Sim-BCS Standings (previously the "Unofficial" BCS Standings) is the closest facsimile to the real BCS Standings until it's officially released in mid-October. The sim standings will strictly follow the BCS formula, with a couple of substitutions until all components of the standings are made available.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Congress Can't 'Fix' the BCS
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) made a lot of noise earlier this year about reforming the BCS. He even wrote an op-ed in Sports Illustrated. Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas) went as far as introducing a bill to ban the use of "national championship" by the BCS. Even President Barack Obama (D-World) has promised (or threatened) to "throw his weight around a little bit."
But don't hold your breath. The BCS isn't going anywhere and it's not going to change much.
And that's a good thing in this sense: You do not want the United States government messing with college football.
For those of you who skipped your high school civic classes or didn't care much for polisci in college, here's a quick primer: The U.S. is a federal republic, its government is represented by people from all 50 states, each with its own disparate interest. These representatives don't work for you or me or the United States as a whole, per se. They work for their state, their district and their constituents.
But most of all, they work for themselves to make sure that they get re-elected.
That's why there's all the grandstanding about the BCS when the timing is convenient. When there's nothing going on, it's a cheap way to get some media attention. And since the BCS is about as popular as the Third Reich, it's easy to kick around the BCS and score brownie points.
You do notice, though, that none of these politicians, from Obama on down, offered anything remotely resembling a "solution" to the BCS problem, right?
That's because they don't have one. And they don't know college football well enough to even come up with one.
You do also notice that the people who complain the loudest about the BCS tend to be representing the latest aggrieved party in the BCS saga. Yes, Hatch is all hot because Utah got screwed last year. Barton is pissed because similarly Texas got shut out of the BCS title game (but he went to A&M, so go figure).
In 2007, the loudest critic of the BCS was University of Gerogia president Michael Adams. He was sore because the Bulldogs didn't get their shot at the crystal ball. Guess what? This last offseason you didn't hear a peep from Dr. Adams, presumably because UGA still got its fat BCS check even though its team, ranked No. 1 in the preseason, more or less went in the tank.
So here's a prediction: You won't hear too much from Sen. Hatch next spring - unless BYU becomes the next BCS victim.
When it comes to the BCS, the best you can hope for is that it'll do the right thing not because of government regulation, but because of the market forces. We still live in a nation with an economy that's fueled by capitalistic endeavors (for now, anyway). And make no mistake, college football and the BCS are big business. So at the end, money talks.
Money talked in the 1990s, as Bowl Coalition morphed into Bowl Alliance and then the BCS. It's not a perfect system, but it's at least marginally better than the old bowl regime. The best two championship games of the BCS Era (2002 and 2005) wouldn't have happened without the BCS. There will come a time - maybe in the next 5-10 years - that there will be so much money on the table for the BCS to adopt some sort of a Plus-One or pseudo-playoff system. You can count on that.
What you can't count on is government efficiency, that's why you want it to stay the hell away from college football. The U.S. government is pretty stretched. It's now running the car industry and many of the big banks. Soon, it'll own healthcare, then energy, and before you know it, you and me, too.
Besides, at a time where there is a real fear of inflation, with runaway budget deficits, continuing high unemployment and negative growth in GDP, not to mention nuclear threats from rogue states such as Iran and North Korea, why is anybody in government even talking about college football?
That's why we want our congressmen and senators to butt out. To mind their own business. To take care of business. In the case of the BCS, we don't need their help to "fix" it.
But don't hold your breath. The BCS isn't going anywhere and it's not going to change much.
And that's a good thing in this sense: You do not want the United States government messing with college football.
For those of you who skipped your high school civic classes or didn't care much for polisci in college, here's a quick primer: The U.S. is a federal republic, its government is represented by people from all 50 states, each with its own disparate interest. These representatives don't work for you or me or the United States as a whole, per se. They work for their state, their district and their constituents.
But most of all, they work for themselves to make sure that they get re-elected.
That's why there's all the grandstanding about the BCS when the timing is convenient. When there's nothing going on, it's a cheap way to get some media attention. And since the BCS is about as popular as the Third Reich, it's easy to kick around the BCS and score brownie points.
You do notice, though, that none of these politicians, from Obama on down, offered anything remotely resembling a "solution" to the BCS problem, right?
That's because they don't have one. And they don't know college football well enough to even come up with one.
You do also notice that the people who complain the loudest about the BCS tend to be representing the latest aggrieved party in the BCS saga. Yes, Hatch is all hot because Utah got screwed last year. Barton is pissed because similarly Texas got shut out of the BCS title game (but he went to A&M, so go figure).
In 2007, the loudest critic of the BCS was University of Gerogia president Michael Adams. He was sore because the Bulldogs didn't get their shot at the crystal ball. Guess what? This last offseason you didn't hear a peep from Dr. Adams, presumably because UGA still got its fat BCS check even though its team, ranked No. 1 in the preseason, more or less went in the tank.
So here's a prediction: You won't hear too much from Sen. Hatch next spring - unless BYU becomes the next BCS victim.
When it comes to the BCS, the best you can hope for is that it'll do the right thing not because of government regulation, but because of the market forces. We still live in a nation with an economy that's fueled by capitalistic endeavors (for now, anyway). And make no mistake, college football and the BCS are big business. So at the end, money talks.
Money talked in the 1990s, as Bowl Coalition morphed into Bowl Alliance and then the BCS. It's not a perfect system, but it's at least marginally better than the old bowl regime. The best two championship games of the BCS Era (2002 and 2005) wouldn't have happened without the BCS. There will come a time - maybe in the next 5-10 years - that there will be so much money on the table for the BCS to adopt some sort of a Plus-One or pseudo-playoff system. You can count on that.
What you can't count on is government efficiency, that's why you want it to stay the hell away from college football. The U.S. government is pretty stretched. It's now running the car industry and many of the big banks. Soon, it'll own healthcare, then energy, and before you know it, you and me, too.
Besides, at a time where there is a real fear of inflation, with runaway budget deficits, continuing high unemployment and negative growth in GDP, not to mention nuclear threats from rogue states such as Iran and North Korea, why is anybody in government even talking about college football?
That's why we want our congressmen and senators to butt out. To mind their own business. To take care of business. In the case of the BCS, we don't need their help to "fix" it.
Friday, August 14, 2009
BCS Weekly News Roundup (Aug. 14)
BCS REFORM FACES TALL ORDER IN CONGRESS (Associated Press, Aug. 13) - For years, lawmakers have railed against the Bowl Championship Series, calling it an unfair way to select a national champion. A lot of righteous thundering, however, has not yielded anything on the legislative front.
SEC'S NEW MEDIA POLICY HITS A SNAG (Birmingham News, Aug. 12) - Facing a public relations backlash, the SEC plans to "tweak" elements of its new controversial media policy that was distributed to the 12 schools last Thursday.
UTAH SCHOOLS SCHEDULE BCS-TOUGH (Deseret News. Aug. 11) - Schedule easy to chalk up wins and look BCS-pretty? Or buckle down and play somebody to push your program forward. That debate has taken a turn for the latter with BYU and Utah.
WHO WANTS TO GET RID OF PRESEASON POLLS? (Virginian-Pilot, Aug. 10) - The preseason college football coaches' poll is an example of cockeyed, tradition-trumping fairness. The preseason rankings skew everything in a sport that selects its national-championship contenders, in large part, with guesswork disguised as a popular vote.
NCAA vs. USC: WHO BLINKS FIRST? (AOL Fanhouse, Aug. 7) - This is a game of chicken. Down on one end of the street is USC, revving its engine. On the other end is the NCAA, doing the same. And they are about to start barreling toward each other. Which one will chicken out?
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Ten Years of BCS: 2005
Without a doubt, in the short history of the BCS, 2005 was its crowning achievement. It was its best season. It was its most controversy-free season. And it ended with its best game, in the best setting possible for a college football game - the Rose Bowl.
It was a dream season for the BCS.
USC, after winning back-to-back AP national titles, was back for an unprecedented three-peat. It had a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who surprised everyone by returning for his senior season. It had a soon-to-be Heisman-winning running back. It had NFL first-round picks up the ying-yang on offense. But its defense was somewhat suspect.
No matter, the Trojans blew through the schedule by outscoring everybody. They won a thriller in South Bend when their Heisman combo Matt Leinart-Reggie Bush orchestrated a final second touchdown to beat Notre Dame. They escaped Fresno State when Bush produce a career worth of highlights in a single game, piling up 513 total yards. USC rolled into the Rose Bowl for the national championship with a 34-game winning streak after destroying UCLA, 66-19.
Keeping on the Trojans' heels was No. 2 Texas, led by junior quarterback Vince Young, a Heisman hopeful himself. The Longhorns were ranked right behind USC the entire season, and were a juggernaut in their own right. After getting by Ohio State in Columbus in the second game of the season, Texas scored at least 40 points and won by double-digits every game. The Longhorns claimed their date with USC by atomizing Colorado in the Big 12 title game, 70-3.
In this BCS perfect season, everything fell into place. Penn State, the only other team that might otherwise had a claim on the title game, was done in by Michigan's Mario Manningham, who caught a TD pass on the game's final play to thwart perfection for the Lions. Alabama, the last unbeaten team besides USC and Texas, bowed out of the race on Nov. 12 after a loss to LSU.
The national championship game was a classic. The Trojans jumped ahead. The Longhorns took the lead by halftime. USC regained control in the second half and was one play away from finishing off its three-peat. On fourth-and-2 at the Texas 45, with 2:13 remaining and Texas out of timeouts, the Trojans elected to go for a first down instead of punting to protect a 38-33 lead.
Bush, the Heisman winning back, was on the sideline. The Trojans loaded up the left side of the line and ran Lendale White off tackle. It was a play full of machismo. USC had run this play three times in crucial situations in this game and prevailed each time. It dared Texas to stop it.
The Longhorns did. White was stuffed a yard short and Young got the ball back. He methodically drove Texas downfield, scoring the game-winner on fourth-and-5 with 19 seconds left. Texas ended the Trojans' reign and won its first national title since 1970.
Final BCS Standings: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Alternative Methods -
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) Formula: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Using human polls only: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Plus One: USC vs. Ohio State; Texas vs. Penn State.
Controversy: There was little regarding the BCS. The title game was only slightly marred by instant replay malfunction, which allowed a disputed Texas touchdown to stand in the second quarter. Young's knee was down on the play before he lateraled the ball to Selvin Young, who ran 12 yards for the score to put Texas ahead, 9-7. The play was not reviewed because the equipment wasn't working.
BCS Formula Review: After the controversy of the previous year when Texas leapfrogged California for a Rose Bowl berth, the BCS made another tweak with the formula, out of necessity. A number of AP voters were besieged by angry fans who found fault with their ballots. As a result, the AP sent a cease-and-desist letter demanding that the AP poll be removed from the BCS formula.
The BCS hastily contracted Harris Interactive to furnish a replacement poll, which debuted in 2005. The poll features over 100 voters who are former athletic directors, coaches and players, as well as members of the media. Unlike the AP poll or the coaches poll, the Harris Poll does not have a preseason poll and isn't released until four weeks into the season; and it also does not have am end-of-season final poll.
With the installment of the Harris Poll as part of the standings, the BCS formula would remain unchanged to this day. The 2009 season will be the fifth consecutive with the exact same BCS formula.
Analysis: The USC-Texas game was easily the most-watched BCS championship game and its most thrilling, thanks to the star power of both teams. And the BCS deserved credit for making it happen. Under the previous bowl regime, USC would've played (and most likely, beaten) Penn State in the Rose Bowl whereas Texas would've faced (and also beaten) either one-loss Oregon or two-loss Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.
The 2006 Rose Bowl also marked the end of the phase I of the BCS bowl rotation. After two consecutive cycles of playing four BCS bowls with eight berths, the BCS, partly under pressure, would expand to a "double-host" setup following the 2005 season. An extra game would be added to allow more access for non-BCS teams. And a championship game was added, to be played a week after the traditional New Year's Day bowl games.
It was a dream season for the BCS.
USC, after winning back-to-back AP national titles, was back for an unprecedented three-peat. It had a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who surprised everyone by returning for his senior season. It had a soon-to-be Heisman-winning running back. It had NFL first-round picks up the ying-yang on offense. But its defense was somewhat suspect.
No matter, the Trojans blew through the schedule by outscoring everybody. They won a thriller in South Bend when their Heisman combo Matt Leinart-Reggie Bush orchestrated a final second touchdown to beat Notre Dame. They escaped Fresno State when Bush produce a career worth of highlights in a single game, piling up 513 total yards. USC rolled into the Rose Bowl for the national championship with a 34-game winning streak after destroying UCLA, 66-19.
Keeping on the Trojans' heels was No. 2 Texas, led by junior quarterback Vince Young, a Heisman hopeful himself. The Longhorns were ranked right behind USC the entire season, and were a juggernaut in their own right. After getting by Ohio State in Columbus in the second game of the season, Texas scored at least 40 points and won by double-digits every game. The Longhorns claimed their date with USC by atomizing Colorado in the Big 12 title game, 70-3.
In this BCS perfect season, everything fell into place. Penn State, the only other team that might otherwise had a claim on the title game, was done in by Michigan's Mario Manningham, who caught a TD pass on the game's final play to thwart perfection for the Lions. Alabama, the last unbeaten team besides USC and Texas, bowed out of the race on Nov. 12 after a loss to LSU.
The national championship game was a classic. The Trojans jumped ahead. The Longhorns took the lead by halftime. USC regained control in the second half and was one play away from finishing off its three-peat. On fourth-and-2 at the Texas 45, with 2:13 remaining and Texas out of timeouts, the Trojans elected to go for a first down instead of punting to protect a 38-33 lead.
Bush, the Heisman winning back, was on the sideline. The Trojans loaded up the left side of the line and ran Lendale White off tackle. It was a play full of machismo. USC had run this play three times in crucial situations in this game and prevailed each time. It dared Texas to stop it.
The Longhorns did. White was stuffed a yard short and Young got the ball back. He methodically drove Texas downfield, scoring the game-winner on fourth-and-5 with 19 seconds left. Texas ended the Trojans' reign and won its first national title since 1970.
Final BCS Standings: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Alternative Methods -
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) Formula: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Using human polls only: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Plus One: USC vs. Ohio State; Texas vs. Penn State.
Controversy: There was little regarding the BCS. The title game was only slightly marred by instant replay malfunction, which allowed a disputed Texas touchdown to stand in the second quarter. Young's knee was down on the play before he lateraled the ball to Selvin Young, who ran 12 yards for the score to put Texas ahead, 9-7. The play was not reviewed because the equipment wasn't working.
BCS Formula Review: After the controversy of the previous year when Texas leapfrogged California for a Rose Bowl berth, the BCS made another tweak with the formula, out of necessity. A number of AP voters were besieged by angry fans who found fault with their ballots. As a result, the AP sent a cease-and-desist letter demanding that the AP poll be removed from the BCS formula.
The BCS hastily contracted Harris Interactive to furnish a replacement poll, which debuted in 2005. The poll features over 100 voters who are former athletic directors, coaches and players, as well as members of the media. Unlike the AP poll or the coaches poll, the Harris Poll does not have a preseason poll and isn't released until four weeks into the season; and it also does not have am end-of-season final poll.
With the installment of the Harris Poll as part of the standings, the BCS formula would remain unchanged to this day. The 2009 season will be the fifth consecutive with the exact same BCS formula.
Analysis: The USC-Texas game was easily the most-watched BCS championship game and its most thrilling, thanks to the star power of both teams. And the BCS deserved credit for making it happen. Under the previous bowl regime, USC would've played (and most likely, beaten) Penn State in the Rose Bowl whereas Texas would've faced (and also beaten) either one-loss Oregon or two-loss Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.
The 2006 Rose Bowl also marked the end of the phase I of the BCS bowl rotation. After two consecutive cycles of playing four BCS bowls with eight berths, the BCS, partly under pressure, would expand to a "double-host" setup following the 2005 season. An extra game would be added to allow more access for non-BCS teams. And a championship game was added, to be played a week after the traditional New Year's Day bowl games.
Monday, August 10, 2009
What the Coaches Poll Wrought
It's the first preseason poll of significance, and it's the first element of the 2009 BCS standings to be revealed. So when the USA Today Coaches Poll was released last Friday, it was immediately taken apart and analyzed.
Yeah, it may be a preseason poll, but don't think for a moment that it means little.
While the top of the poll yielded little surprise - defending BCS national champion Florida checked in at No. 1 - it's apparent that Coalition members (i.e. non-BCS schools) will have just about no chance for a spot in the BCS title game, and that one loss will doom their shot at even a BCS bowl appearance.
How can that be so quickly ordained after a short glance of the preseason poll, you ask?
Simple. The preseason poll in college football is a lot like the starting grid in a Formula One car race. There are few opportunities for passes, so where you start often times determine where you'll finish.
Four Coalition teams are in the top 25, led by Boise State at No. 16. This does not bode well for those teams (also Mountain West members TCU, Utah and BYU) to have any shot at the BCS national title game. In the past five years, only teams ranked in the preseason top 10 in the Coaches Poll made it to the BCS title game. This year, 9 of the top 10 teams will face each other at least once before the halfway point of the season, which means even a loss will keep these teams in the top 10, ahead of any unbeaten Coalition teams.
What about Coalition teams playing themselves into national title contention? After all, doesn't BYU open the season at Oklahoma?
Yes, but here's the rub. Even if the Cougars pull off a monumental upset at Norman, will they vault all the way up into the top 5? Not likely, not from where they start at No. 24. And a loss effectively ends BYU's BCS bowl hopes after one game, even if it goes on to win the MWC championship.
Contrast that to the Big East, one of the six BCS conferences. There's not a team from that conference that may even be in the top 10 by the end of the season (the highest preseason ranking is Cincinnati, at No. 29), but it's guaranteed a BCS bowl berth. Of course, based on our own research, the Big East is still well ahead of the MWC in overall performance - but there was little logic to grant the Big East a spot in the BCS for the next five years, as it was done before the start of this season.
Some might be quick to jump on a potential conspiracy by BCS conference coaches to keep non-BCS teams down in the polls to ensure as many BCS teams get the 10 BCS bowl spots as possible. But that link is tenuous at best.
There are 59 voters in the coaches poll and 25 of them (42%) are from non-BCS conferences. That roughly corresponds with the actual proportion of non-BCS teams (54 of 120, 45%) in Division I-A. If BCS conference coaches are keeping the non-BCS teams down in the polls, then the Coalition coaches are not exactly doing a bang-up job of propping up their brethren.
But just how everybody is actually voting? We'll never know. As usual, the Coaches Poll is secret ballots until the final poll of the season. And after this season, they intend to revert back to secret ballots for the entire season, including the final poll, over the protests of the BCS commissioners. So in essence, it remains the most controversial and non-transparent part of the BCS formula, and it accounts for one-third of the total.
There is a simple solution to this. After 2009, the BCS must dump the Coaches Poll.
Yeah, it may be a preseason poll, but don't think for a moment that it means little.
While the top of the poll yielded little surprise - defending BCS national champion Florida checked in at No. 1 - it's apparent that Coalition members (i.e. non-BCS schools) will have just about no chance for a spot in the BCS title game, and that one loss will doom their shot at even a BCS bowl appearance.
How can that be so quickly ordained after a short glance of the preseason poll, you ask?
Simple. The preseason poll in college football is a lot like the starting grid in a Formula One car race. There are few opportunities for passes, so where you start often times determine where you'll finish.
Four Coalition teams are in the top 25, led by Boise State at No. 16. This does not bode well for those teams (also Mountain West members TCU, Utah and BYU) to have any shot at the BCS national title game. In the past five years, only teams ranked in the preseason top 10 in the Coaches Poll made it to the BCS title game. This year, 9 of the top 10 teams will face each other at least once before the halfway point of the season, which means even a loss will keep these teams in the top 10, ahead of any unbeaten Coalition teams.
What about Coalition teams playing themselves into national title contention? After all, doesn't BYU open the season at Oklahoma?
Yes, but here's the rub. Even if the Cougars pull off a monumental upset at Norman, will they vault all the way up into the top 5? Not likely, not from where they start at No. 24. And a loss effectively ends BYU's BCS bowl hopes after one game, even if it goes on to win the MWC championship.
Contrast that to the Big East, one of the six BCS conferences. There's not a team from that conference that may even be in the top 10 by the end of the season (the highest preseason ranking is Cincinnati, at No. 29), but it's guaranteed a BCS bowl berth. Of course, based on our own research, the Big East is still well ahead of the MWC in overall performance - but there was little logic to grant the Big East a spot in the BCS for the next five years, as it was done before the start of this season.
Some might be quick to jump on a potential conspiracy by BCS conference coaches to keep non-BCS teams down in the polls to ensure as many BCS teams get the 10 BCS bowl spots as possible. But that link is tenuous at best.
There are 59 voters in the coaches poll and 25 of them (42%) are from non-BCS conferences. That roughly corresponds with the actual proportion of non-BCS teams (54 of 120, 45%) in Division I-A. If BCS conference coaches are keeping the non-BCS teams down in the polls, then the Coalition coaches are not exactly doing a bang-up job of propping up their brethren.
But just how everybody is actually voting? We'll never know. As usual, the Coaches Poll is secret ballots until the final poll of the season. And after this season, they intend to revert back to secret ballots for the entire season, including the final poll, over the protests of the BCS commissioners. So in essence, it remains the most controversial and non-transparent part of the BCS formula, and it accounts for one-third of the total.
There is a simple solution to this. After 2009, the BCS must dump the Coaches Poll.
Friday, August 7, 2009
The Guru Joins the BlogPoll
The Guru will be joining the prestigious BlogPoll this season, after receiving confirmation from Brian Cook, the founder and operator of the BlogPoll, as well as MGoBlog.com, one of the most read/respected college sports blogs anywhere.
So what is the BlogPoll? Well, it's like the AP poll and the coaches poll, only better. Typically, the journalists and the coaches get to watch one game a week before catching a few SportsCenter highlights and turning in their ballots (or have some minions do it for them - believe me, Steve Spurrier is hardly the only one). Bloggers like the Guru, on the other hand, consume so much college football throughout the week that they'd get up sick Sunday morning - before starting all over again Tuesday for the all-important MAC matchup.
In essence, we're the true college football experts, though the level of expertise varies wildly. And as is the intention of the BlogPoll, it's also prone to a little bias. But whereas the coaches hide behind secret ballots, we have to reveal (and if necessary, defend) how we voted each week.
The BlogPoll is now sponsored by CBSSports.com (see the final 2008 season poll) as its credibility and stature continue to grow. This season's first poll will be posted on Aug. 24, and then on Wednesday every week after the season begins.
The Guru will fill out the ballot each week and post it on this site - and then I'll take on all comers to explain how I voted. Keep in mind that what's on my BlogPoll ballot might be mildly (or wildly) different from what's in the "Guru's Rankings," which is generated by a computer algorithm that seeks to identify the most likely participants in the BCS national championship game.
The Guru's BlogPoll, meanwhile, is entirely subjective because the purpose of the BlogPoll is to rank the teams based on their performance irrespective of their place in the BCS standings. The best teams may not get to the BCS title game, but they deserve to be recognized for what they did on the field. So if the Guru's Rankings are predictive, the Guru's BlogPoll is descriptive.
One final note: Because the BlogPoll demands an affiliation with a football-playing college, the Guru has chosen to represent UCLA. Why? Because the Guru went to grad school there and my real alma mater, Cal State Fullerton, dropped football after 1992. But rest assured, the Guru's vaunted neutrality will continue to prevail on my BlogPoll ballots.
So what is the BlogPoll? Well, it's like the AP poll and the coaches poll, only better. Typically, the journalists and the coaches get to watch one game a week before catching a few SportsCenter highlights and turning in their ballots (or have some minions do it for them - believe me, Steve Spurrier is hardly the only one). Bloggers like the Guru, on the other hand, consume so much college football throughout the week that they'd get up sick Sunday morning - before starting all over again Tuesday for the all-important MAC matchup.
In essence, we're the true college football experts, though the level of expertise varies wildly. And as is the intention of the BlogPoll, it's also prone to a little bias. But whereas the coaches hide behind secret ballots, we have to reveal (and if necessary, defend) how we voted each week.
The BlogPoll is now sponsored by CBSSports.com (see the final 2008 season poll) as its credibility and stature continue to grow. This season's first poll will be posted on Aug. 24, and then on Wednesday every week after the season begins.
The Guru will fill out the ballot each week and post it on this site - and then I'll take on all comers to explain how I voted. Keep in mind that what's on my BlogPoll ballot might be mildly (or wildly) different from what's in the "Guru's Rankings," which is generated by a computer algorithm that seeks to identify the most likely participants in the BCS national championship game.
The Guru's BlogPoll, meanwhile, is entirely subjective because the purpose of the BlogPoll is to rank the teams based on their performance irrespective of their place in the BCS standings. The best teams may not get to the BCS title game, but they deserve to be recognized for what they did on the field. So if the Guru's Rankings are predictive, the Guru's BlogPoll is descriptive.
One final note: Because the BlogPoll demands an affiliation with a football-playing college, the Guru has chosen to represent UCLA. Why? Because the Guru went to grad school there and my real alma mater, Cal State Fullerton, dropped football after 1992. But rest assured, the Guru's vaunted neutrality will continue to prevail on my BlogPoll ballots.
BCS Weekly News Roundup (Aug. 7)
FLORIDA TOPS PRESEASON COACHES POLL (USA Today, Aug. 7)
BCS REVIEW: RIGHTING A DECADE OF MOSTLY WRONGS (CBS Sports, Aug. 6) - The Bowl Championship Series came of age this decade. That's not to say the BCS matured or got better. It just got older -- and more controversial. This was the first decade in which every major-college season ended with a championship decided on the field.
URBAN FALLACY: THE SEC GRIND (Bleacher Report, Aug. 6) - Fans, media, pundits and now coaches have created a new BCS party line, the "week in, week out" asterisk. This is where any time Utah's undefeated season is mentioned, it must be disclosed that Utah could not have accomplished this had they played week in, week out in a real BCS conference.
BIG EAST BCS-WORTHY FOR FIVE MORE YEARS (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Aug. 5) - The Big East Conference has exceeded the most optimistic predictions when the BCS contract was renewed this year and the Big East retained its berth for the next five seasons.
URBAN MEYER NOW HIGHEST-PAID SEC COACH (ESPN, Aug. 3) - Florida coach Urban Meyer signed a new six-year, $24 million contract Monday, taking his total financial package to $4 million per year and making him the SEC's highest-paid coach in 2009. It makes him the third-highest-paid coach in the country behind Pete Carroll's reported $4.4 million salary at USC and Charlie Weis' $4.2 million at Notre Dame
COACHES POLL MUST BE PUNTED BY BCS (Denver Post, Aug. 3) - What does it tell you about the validity of the football coaches poll when Oklahoma's Bob Stoops decides to vote this year to protect his own team?
Thursday, August 6, 2009
The Guru's 2009 Preseason Rankings
This season, the Guru is debuting a rankings formula that's designed entirely with the BCS system in mind. Unlike the human polls - which are completely subjective and prone to bias - or the computer ratings, the Guru's rankings are unique because it looks forward, not backward.
The primary asset of the Guru's system is its predicative value. Instead of rating teams based on (immediate) past performances, the system seeks to predict how each team will perform from this point forward. A team's schedule thus has an overwhelming influence on a team's rankings.
And it makes sense. The Guru's system is designed to predict which two teams are most likely to end up in the BCS national championship game, not necessarily which are the best teams. It goes without saying that a BCS conference team that manages to go undefeated would be a prohibitive favorite to play for the BCS title.
A team playing a tough schedule and/or is in a tough conference will have less of a chance to go unbeaten - but that's balanced by the fact that such an arrangement may bolster its chances in case of a loss. Most of the BCS formula's idiosyncratic nature is taken into account for this system.
Testing the system for preseason 2008, it yielded a USC-Florida BCS title game. The Trojans didn't cooperate by losing at Oregon State; but the Gators, despite a home loss to Ole Miss, did make the title game - and went on to win it. Oklahoma, the other title-game participant, was fourth, behind No. 3 Georgia.
This year's preseason rankings forecast a rematch in the BCS title game, between Florida and Oklahoma. The Gators, in fact, nearly lapped the field. Florida has a talented team that returns quarterback Tim Tebow and the entire defensive starting lineup. It also doesn't have to play two of the SEC's better teams: Alabama and Ole Miss.
So without further ado, here's the Guru preseason Top 25. And this formula will be applied throughout the season, with the results released every Monday until the end of the regular season.
The primary asset of the Guru's system is its predicative value. Instead of rating teams based on (immediate) past performances, the system seeks to predict how each team will perform from this point forward. A team's schedule thus has an overwhelming influence on a team's rankings.
And it makes sense. The Guru's system is designed to predict which two teams are most likely to end up in the BCS national championship game, not necessarily which are the best teams. It goes without saying that a BCS conference team that manages to go undefeated would be a prohibitive favorite to play for the BCS title.
A team playing a tough schedule and/or is in a tough conference will have less of a chance to go unbeaten - but that's balanced by the fact that such an arrangement may bolster its chances in case of a loss. Most of the BCS formula's idiosyncratic nature is taken into account for this system.
Testing the system for preseason 2008, it yielded a USC-Florida BCS title game. The Trojans didn't cooperate by losing at Oregon State; but the Gators, despite a home loss to Ole Miss, did make the title game - and went on to win it. Oklahoma, the other title-game participant, was fourth, behind No. 3 Georgia.
This year's preseason rankings forecast a rematch in the BCS title game, between Florida and Oklahoma. The Gators, in fact, nearly lapped the field. Florida has a talented team that returns quarterback Tim Tebow and the entire defensive starting lineup. It also doesn't have to play two of the SEC's better teams: Alabama and Ole Miss.
So without further ado, here's the Guru preseason Top 25. And this formula will be applied throughout the season, with the results released every Monday until the end of the regular season.
| Rank | Team | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | RATING | Conf | Pvs* |
| 1 | Florida | 23.695 | SEC | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | Oklahoma | 11.484 | Big 12 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | USC | 11.348 | Pac-10 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | Texas | 10.134 | Big 12 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | Ohio State | 6.322 | Big Ten | 9 | ||||||||||||||
| 6 | Penn State | 5.837 | Big Ten | 8 | ||||||||||||||
| 7 | Virginia Tech | 3.601 | ACC | 15 | ||||||||||||||
| 8 | Pittsburgh | 3.491 | Big East | 27 | ||||||||||||||
| 9 | Boise State | 3.244 | WAC | 11 | ||||||||||||||
| 10 | Notre Dame | 3.003 | Ind | NR | ||||||||||||||
| 11 | Alabama | 2.594 | SEC | 6 | ||||||||||||||
| 12 | Texas Christian | 2.172 | MWC | 7 | ||||||||||||||
| 13 | Gerogia Tech | 1.903 | ACC | 22 | ||||||||||||||
| 14 | Utah | 1.740 | MWC | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| 15 | North Carolina | 1.293 | ACC | NR | ||||||||||||||
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 1.239 | Big 12 | 16 | ||||||||||||||
| 17 | Oregon | 1.155 | Pac-10 | 10 | ||||||||||||||
| 18 | Ole Miss | 1.106 | SEC | 14 | ||||||||||||||
| 19 | California | 1.105 | Pac-10 | 26 | ||||||||||||||
| 20 | West Virginia | 0.814 | Big East | 23 | ||||||||||||||
| 21 | Brigham Young | 0.662 | MWC | 25 | ||||||||||||||
| 22 | Michigan State | 0.647 | Big Ten | 24 | ||||||||||||||
| 23 | Iowa | 0.501 | Big Ten | 20 | ||||||||||||||
| 24 | LSU | 0.196 | SEC | 28 | ||||||||||||||
| 25 | Oregon State | 0.193 | Pac-10 | 18 | ||||||||||||||
| 26 | Cincinnati | 0.147 | Big East | 17 | ||||||||||||||
| 27 | Georgia | 0.139 | SEC | 13 | ||||||||||||||
| 28 | Kansas | 0.071 | Big 12 | 37 | ||||||||||||||
| 29 | Illinois | 0.033 | Big Ten | NR | ||||||||||||||
| 30 | Florida State | 0.013 | ACC | 21 | ||||||||||||||
| 30 | Nebraska | 0.013 | Big 12 | 29 |
*Pvs- Final 2008 AP poll
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